powderfreak
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Everything posted by powderfreak
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No one in New England has ever had any experience with that sort of outcome, lol. What a classic statement... "the fronto banding overperformed further north..."
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It did best up here in that late March event too. Constantly showing a solid northern event here while other models had very little if anything... then all the ASOS were reporting M1/4 +SN with 5-10”. It’s still the best model.
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I agree. Ride that thing to it’s death at this point. It’s been now almost 3 days of very little movement on the Euro output.
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They are all over done, all the snow maps. Widespread 10:1 ratios like its falling on frozen ground ain’t happening... but you can see the general highlighted areas of a given model run, just don’t take the values verbatim. The maps are the most over-done in the lower elevations and marginal thermal areas.
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00z ECM is a big hit for the Massif.
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I haven’t looked at soundings but the p-type progs have like a half inch water as snow on the Cape in the thump, lol.
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HRRR-X is pretty much identical to the NAM in terms of the main axis.
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Agreed, ORH has been looking fantastic for days. I’ve been on the TOL-ORH. Will have to watch these little tickles as ORH has a lot more wiggle room than TOL.
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Lol... 11” ORH?
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18z Euro clown map.
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White Pines seem to come down if you look at them the wrong way... 3” of slop certainly starts cracking those evergreen branches.
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Maybe you personally but October 2011 was devastating on the whole for CT power wise, no? Not sure if that’s a great example of avoiding outages.
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I’m a fukkin idiot, lol. For a second I forgot it was happening tomorrow night, not tonight. Yeah disregard that statement haha. No doubt if the guidance is the same tomorrow they issue advisories.
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Is it me or does it seem weird BOX has no advisories out? Whats your threshold there? Is it 3 or 4 inches? Seems like it would be worthy of at least a cluster of county zones around ORH and Mass Pike zones to East Slopes?
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That is the 3k NAM Kev. The simulated radar prog is trying to show your Tolland hills.
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Sharp southern boundary near Kev, such a tough call but if 18z EURO is still there, ride that out. 18z NAM is hilarious though around BOS. Can you imagine if pretty much the entire state of MA woke up to 6-9”...right into downtown Boston.
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18z GFS went much more robust but tucked even further north.
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Me either. I’ve been thinking he gets smoked pretty good on the Massif. Should be interesting to see the layout of totals tomorrow.
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Good snow growth with 32-34F surface temps can get some fun flakes.... good dendrites going the aggregate route can lead to some good vis reduction too. Much more efficient accums on warm ground surfaces than throwing a bunch of melting needles/columns through the low levels.
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That ECM run looked like a great run for NCT and SMA counties along I-90 area.
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I mean, what a cold April day. 32/23 at 1pm (!) with 1.75sm -SN. KMVL 161708Z AUTO 32008G18KT 1 3/4SM -SN FEW018 BKN039 OVC047 00/M05 A2999 RMK AO2 SNB02 P0000 T00001050 -
I'm almost afraid to say what model it's from, but this is sort of what I would start with. Maybe a little higher in N.ORH county and then always can have some spot 4-7" amounts. But a widespread 2-6" seems like a conservative place to start from?
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Something like a EURO/RGEM/GGEM/NAM blend? The 12z GFS looks sort of like the odd one out.
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Yeah for sure to the north. I've sort of been looking a lot more at the Pike south and Kev area just for shits and giggles. I do think Pike to RT 2 would have the best shot at near 10:1 ratios. Coolest looking prog though is tomorrow the residual cooling left in the wake of the system that rotates SE. Can really see the "snow cooled" atmosphere relative to the larger Northeast picture at 925mb.
