powderfreak

Every model gets you pretty good. Euro was like 2.5”.

"It's going to be meh." "It's going to be meh." "It's going to be meh." "Goddamnit! It's actually going to be meh. What the hell do we have to do to get a good storm!?"

Looks like winter. Trying to figure out if it's going to go up the Hudson Valley, CT River Valley or will it head to BOS/PWM and ME coast.

Yeah that would be a huge winter here. We had 150-160" here in the village between 2 sites in 2010-11. That seasonal snowfall map looked like a NW flow model prog when it was all done. 2000-01 would probably be at that level of 175" locally at this level, with over 400" in former ski area measurements. It's a huge season.

Yeah that sounds about right. In my head I sort of lump you guys in with up to Dryslot's area, as I bet Dryslot has more in common with ORH snowfall than he does with Vermont at the same latitude. The snowfall climatology in the northeast seems to run in SW to NE axis, mirroring the coastline. Like up here we often share storms that deliver NW of ALB, more than we do with say far N.NY or Massena despite the similar latitude. I know you know this, ha, just speaking out loud. The main point though is what you made, if one region really does well, the other normally does pretty good too. Relative to normal as a percentage, I still think SNE often gets the nod in those "good/great" winters. Like 120% snowfall up here is a huge winter and I bet when that happens, it's not uncommon for BOS/BDL/ORH to have at least 120% of normal, maybe more. That's probably a pretty poor metric though to compare, as standard deviations would be more useful. Maybe that's where I'm stuck at, looking at it as a percentage of normal snowfall... it's hard to beat the non-immediate coastal SNE stations in that metric during a good winter.

Ha, of course. That’s not what I meant with jackpots. I’m talking like I feel like in a slightly warmer regime we have less of a chance of getting 2-3” of sand while other folks get 18-24”. Not necessarily jackpots but just being even in the game in individual storms vs a season long slow build up. Sometimes you just want a good CCB dropping 1” QPF in 6 hours... I liked 2010-11.... that January while SNE was cleaning up we were at least doing 8-12’s in those storms. It does seem though like NNE gets above normal snows residually when SNE gets smoked, but it’s sort of like HubbDave “mehing” 2015’s 100+ inches at his place lol.

That’s an appropriate description, ha. Whenever you think winter is going bad, just let me break open the photos from 15-16 and you’ll suddenly feel all warm and fuzzy with only 4-6” on the ground.

Hahaha, making the rounds. Come and do snowmobile burnouts in our brown lawns as a thank you.

Haha, yeah. Old timers hanging outside the ski bars... shaking their mugs like begging for coins. It truly is amazing for that spot to be so snowless. Especially the Christmas time period. We opened the summer zip line down from the top of the Gondola for Christmas break! That's one you tell the grandkids someday.

Welcome to Christmas in the NNE Mtns that year, Phin. Only time since 1954 without even a trace of snow at the Mansfield COOP. I honestly never thought it was possible to do before 2015. I mean, at 4000ft there isn't even ice bulges on the cliffs, nothing at all. Not even a drift. Just bare ground straight to the summits. It might as well have been mid-October. We'll never see anything like that again is my guess.

In the past 25 years at Stowe, there hasn’t been another winter within even 75” of that one. We got 154”. The next closest contestant in 25 years is like 2011-12 with 246”.

Ha I'm with you. I've been on the +1 train for a while but Will has always been able to show that as a wrong assumption with BTV data, but their climo definitely probably favors cold in the valley. Maybe the difference is we tend to "jackpot" more in a +1 to +2 or something regime because we are on the gradient line.... maybe it's snowier on the whole in a colder regime? But I still think we have a better chance of being in the sweet spot of storms in a bit warmer pattern.... ie last winter. But last winter's overall snowfall wasn't great, but we jacked in quite a few storms, haha. Even got a couple CCBs which seem rare up here. It probably has more to do with a jackpot or sweet spot of individual storms vs. overall seasonal snowfall total.

My college girlfriend was from Boxford... I remember spending a bunch of time there over 3 years. They got absolutely pummeled in a few storms around 2005 time frame. It seemed like every single big storm the Topsfield/Danvers/Boxford/Ipswich was 24-36" for a time there from like 2003-2005.

Put that map next to the one from ALY and that is probably one of the more underrated storms ever in the northeast, haha. The rest of the winter will forever over-shadow that event.... but 18”+ from the Boston suburbs all the way past ALB into the Mohawk Valley is big. Also looks like the lower elevations of CT River Valley did well (20s near Springfield) and Hudson River Valley got crushed with 20-26” in the ALB area.... rare to see a long duration storm like that not screw the valleys. But again I think the rest of the winter will over-shadow that storm in the memory banks.

I really forgotten how big that storm was. That's a legit large scale zone of counties with widespread 18-28". That's no isolated deform band jack or something... that's a large chunk of terrain buried under 18"+.

Yes! That's just what I was thinking... I mean you pop a big one to lead off the winter, you expect to be well on your way to a memorable winter total. I mean what a crush job... the swath of 18"+. It was 22-25.7" for reports in my childhood town/Delmar to the immediate SW of ALB.

That was a high-end event in some spot. My folks and childhood home near ALB got crushed. I know it was a more narrow swath from NE Mass/S NH westward through eastern NY and the Catskills, but this type of snowstorm in the Hudson Valley in the first couple days of December is solid. The grill is just totally gone. It does suck that it is remembered by those areas not as a huge storm, but it'll be overshadowed by the poor winter that followed. When you get that type of snowfall to start December, you dream of gold I'm sure. Big starts are fun, but can lead to disappointment?

Played for the first time this season two days ago at a local 9-hole track not far from the MVL ASOS, lol. Wasn’t too pretty, bogey golf but it was first time out.

Whiteface in the Adirondacks, 14F.

You are in a snowy spot man. I visit your type of climate almost every day but I don't live in it. The local mesoscale differences even within towns around NNE is pretty nuts, you are in the "snowier" inhabited zone. Good moisture from better low development the further east you get, and a blocked flow given the tilting in the atmosphere, this was a great set-up for you tucked in on that NW slope of the Presidential Range.

Fukkin' May and there's a coating of the snow on the ground there... I don't know the climo as much down there but I have to think these types of snow squalls are on a pretty decent return time.

We knew this air mass wouldn't be denied. Squalls all over the place.

I might even try to find the twitter thread of this Cranky fellow.... what a terrible way to go down swinging by trying to minimize this. Need some good entertainment, I’m assuming Twitter has lit the guy up. Not sure what’s more impressive, the air mass or the fact that a weather personality thinks this is run of the mill.

Squalls up here this time of year, pretty cool and impressive. But squalls like your photo, in the time of max diurnal temperatures, along the Long Island Sound is absolutely bonkers for this time of year. Guess that’s what happens when 850mb and 500mb are near the minimum climo values on the NAEFS ensemble.

Squalls are fun. Localized whiteouts moving through an otherwise bluebird day, ha.