powderfreak

HRRR-X is pretty much identical to the NAM in terms of the main axis.

Agreed, ORH has been looking fantastic for days. I’ve been on the TOL-ORH. Will have to watch these little tickles as ORH has a lot more wiggle room than TOL.

Lol... 11” ORH?

18z Euro clown map.

White Pines seem to come down if you look at them the wrong way... 3” of slop certainly starts cracking those evergreen branches.

Maybe you personally but October 2011 was devastating on the whole for CT power wise, no? Not sure if that’s a great example of avoiding outages.

I’m a fukkin idiot, lol. For a second I forgot it was happening tomorrow night, not tonight. Yeah disregard that statement haha. No doubt if the guidance is the same tomorrow they issue advisories.

Is it me or does it seem weird BOX has no advisories out? Whats your threshold there? Is it 3 or 4 inches? Seems like it would be worthy of at least a cluster of county zones around ORH and Mass Pike zones to East Slopes?

That is the 3k NAM Kev. The simulated radar prog is trying to show your Tolland hills.

Sharp southern boundary near Kev, such a tough call but if 18z EURO is still there, ride that out. 18z NAM is hilarious though around BOS. Can you imagine if pretty much the entire state of MA woke up to 6-9”...right into downtown Boston.

18z GFS went much more robust but tucked even further north.

Me either. I’ve been thinking he gets smoked pretty good on the Massif. Should be interesting to see the layout of totals tomorrow.

Good snow growth with 32-34F surface temps can get some fun flakes.... good dendrites going the aggregate route can lead to some good vis reduction too. Much more efficient accums on warm ground surfaces than throwing a bunch of melting needles/columns through the low levels.

That ECM run looked like a great run for NCT and SMA counties along I-90 area.

I mean, what a cold April day. 32/23 at 1pm (!) with 1.75sm -SN. KMVL 161708Z AUTO 32008G18KT 1 3/4SM -SN FEW018 BKN039 OVC047 00/M05 A2999 RMK AO2 SNB02 P0000 T00001050

I'm almost afraid to say what model it's from, but this is sort of what I would start with. Maybe a little higher in N.ORH county and then always can have some spot 4-7" amounts. But a widespread 2-6" seems like a conservative place to start from?

Something like a EURO/RGEM/GGEM/NAM blend? The 12z GFS looks sort of like the odd one out.

Yeah for sure to the north. I've sort of been looking a lot more at the Pike south and Kev area just for shits and giggles. I do think Pike to RT 2 would have the best shot at near 10:1 ratios. Coolest looking prog though is tomorrow the residual cooling left in the wake of the system that rotates SE. Can really see the "snow cooled" atmosphere relative to the larger Northeast picture at 925mb.

Yeah certainly 3+. It's really hard to argue with the EURO right now. It has been locked and loaded for two straight days of runs now. I'd probably go down with that ship at this point. It hasn't had one run that waivered way north or something. Pretty much the same stripe across northern half of CT and then up to RT 2 in Mass for a band of 3"+. I do think 1,000ft has that 6"+ shot if the QPF pans out as progged.

Honestly, most of the snow maps are going to be too high and widespread... 10:1 is probably going to be hard to come by. It is at night though, so hard to tell. I do think the WxBell snow maps though do a lot of their figuring out based on 925mb temp, so the stuff along the southern edge is probably overdone.... much like it has in a lot of the events up north over the past month. The snow maps over the last month seem to over-do the amounts in lower elevations and southern range of the snow progs the most. That said, anything at 1kft it's probably pretty close.

Who likes popcorn? Sunny, then snowing furiously, then sunny again pattern this morning.

It looks like the mid-level stuff is what you describe, light to moderate snow that hangs back late in the game on the northern side. It could keep the snow going for hours later though, just like that lighter 0.04"/hr style stuff instead of the initial WAA 0.1/hr type water rates.

Holy sh*t Dave. I missed this earlier somehow. Just like we were discussing last night, a nice distraction!

Every EURO run seems like Kev ran out of his basement at 1kft. I think northern CT is elevation dependent and lower elevations looking better a bit further north where its even a half a degree to a degree C cooler through the column.

I mean, it's nothing really... but there's something about waking up to a white covering this time of year that is still energizing. It burns off quickly as the sun rises but I mean, someone wakes up to an inch sitting on every little twig and branch, it's a nice temporary diversion to current life. If it's going to be raw and chilly, it might as well have a crystallized presence.