powderfreak

31/24 up here. This is a pretty cool air mass... SNE should be able to wet bulb down with steady rates.

Digging into the 18z EURO, the forcing is strengthening and slowing down between Kev and your area. Northern CT into SE Mass probably will have a radar that's blossoming and slowing down a bit. Just simply the 1-hr QPF progs show generally lighter stuff over New York/PA this evening.... Then it blows up into this large area of heavy precipitation... a 3-4 hour from Eastern CT to SE Mass sees 0.10" or more per hour bucket rates and that's what you want to see for snow accumulations in marginal set-ups.

Sister in BGM suburb at around 800ft I think? Edit: Just looked it up and they are actually at exactly 1,000ft on the line.

Yeah I’m guilty of posting the snow maps as visual but those will skew some people’s opinions... it might even be 5-6:1 ratios in spots with white rain at times, not the 10:1. Though maybe 1,000ft gets closer? I still think up there it’ll be 8:1 up at elevation when we look at the morning Cocorahs obs. 2-3” is a good pasty amount for the 3rd week of April. 3” though really is like the point where things look “white” and it has the feel of a real snowfall.

No you think you get shafted at 800ft in every storm because the elevations around you always do better. But I bet you do better than the Hudson Valley and locations at lower elevations.

What elevation?

It hasn’t lol. One of the most steady model performances of the entire winter.

Ahh gotcha. So you manipulate the guidance for your local area and that might have some odd side effects elsewhere...but it doesn’t matter because no one will ever see it? Interesting, I didn’t know it worked like that. I find it fascinating how you guys populate grids and make forecasts.

How the hell would you ever get to 1-2” for NYC on any domain area? Even if you don’t pull from surrounding offices, what data would you load in to get those totals?

It should be interesting to see it shake out. The diurnal timing is perfect for some really late climo-wise snowfall in spots outside the hills.

I saw that you were the last poster in the thread and my first thought was “What did MPM find to Eeyore this threat when he’s looking prime in ORH...?” At least keep that glass of Diet Coke half full!

It’s a pretty decent little south shuffle at 18z. HRRR/3kmNAM/Herpes (the meso models) all have similar output in SE Mass. This will be interesting. Just remember these are 10:1 ratios... actual of 7-8:1 would shave down but 3-4” of true wet paste could be higher impact.

That is sick isothermal... shit that looks like it’s starting from above 850mb and staying the same all the way to the surface... That’s almost like isothermal from 825!

lol wut?

What a winter pattern... I think this is what, day 4 or 5 of snow showers (even midday), traces of snow, etc. The persistent flurry of April, days and days. Its not much but it’s a snow shower moving through like once an hour for what feels like days. And not graupel , but like currier and Ives flakes.

BTV doesn’t forecast for the SVT counties.... those are ALY’s.

That is a pretty decent tick South for ya.

Yeah I wasn’t even thinking about the current system but it is just an absolute classic post-mortem statement with winter storms. With no real data to back this up, except my own experiences being on the edge so many times, it just seems the “surprise band” likes to set up on the QPF gradient. Like that zone in a winter storm that goes from 1.0”+ to 0.3” QPF with the tightly packed QPF lines... that mid level magic likes to end up in that modeled gradient.

No one in New England has ever had any experience with that sort of outcome, lol. What a classic statement... "the fronto banding overperformed further north..."

It did best up here in that late March event too. Constantly showing a solid northern event here while other models had very little if anything... then all the ASOS were reporting M1/4 +SN with 5-10”. It’s still the best model.

I agree. Ride that thing to it’s death at this point. It’s been now almost 3 days of very little movement on the Euro output.

They are all over done, all the snow maps. Widespread 10:1 ratios like its falling on frozen ground ain’t happening... but you can see the general highlighted areas of a given model run, just don’t take the values verbatim. The maps are the most over-done in the lower elevations and marginal thermal areas.

00z ECM is a big hit for the Massif.

I haven’t looked at soundings but the p-type progs have like a half inch water as snow on the Cape in the thump, lol.