powderfreak

The same models that showed heat not on the 8th but on the 11th? They are pretty decent.

34F this morning. SLK with 26F off that 93F last week.

38/34 Temp drop has slowed down with clouds. Some moisture moving in.

Might be about 800 vertical feet? Now there's a series of chutes/slide paths in this zone. I counted about a half dozen different swaths cleared. When I first heard about it, I assumed it was the other side of the road as there are south facing cliffs there that are so much closer to the road (shadows in this satellite image). You can see evidence of some past ones to the south too... but I think this was the biggest rock slide in quite some time, at least since I came up here to UVM back in the early 2000s there's been nothing remotely close to this. They do highly suspect the weather playing a big role... before the record heat, there was still snow high up there and water inside the rocks was almost certainly still frozen solid. Then it hits 85F rapidly before dropping back to freezing this morning with a period of heavy rain yesterday and the day before with thunderstorms. I'm no geologist but the idea seems to make sense that rapid temperature swings could do that, like frost heaves in our roadways.

A little dusting of snow up high this afternoon.

I just went to investigate the rock slide on Mount Mansfield that hit RT 108 in the Notch and all I can say is holy f'in sh*t. I'll try to post some photos but two rocks hit the road (just went straight through the pavement and into the ground a couple feet) and about a half dozen others carved out swaths through the forest...snapping trees and leaving divots in the ground up to 5 feet deep and the size of garages. That must've been terrifying... eye witnesses said it sounded like F-18s were flying through the Notch. The power of that is unbelievable up in person. A half dozen new slide paths were just created for skiing. I'm no geologist but the theory would be the very massive temperature swings this month. The ground wasn't even thawed up there when setting record all-time max temps and then it poured rain and went down to freezing... then the hillside gave way.

Pretty good snow shower for the mountains ripped through Mansfield and is now hitting Bolton. Can see the phase change in the visibility up high. And legit snowing pretty good on the Bolton Valley Vista Peak cam:

SLK bouncing around between 43-45F all afternoon after setting the hottest temp for that ASOS in the last week, ha. We just had some brief graupel mixed with rain down here. Temp has fallen to 46F at my place. Mountain is seeing some snow... can see the visibility change up high where the shower changes to snow along the ridgeline.

Maybe it’s supply, but I do subscribe to some of what Kevin talks about... history would say parts of that ridge make it to us at some point. Maybe they are brief interludes before getting beaten back west again, but my money would be on it getting here at some point. Any time those lower heights in the Maritimes weaken, that ridge will try to roll in here...maybe over the top? But I find it hard to believe those lower heights fight off that ridge all summer.

You may be right, I just looked at our climo normals and the crazy few days of 85-95F heat skewed my mind as to what is climo right now. Our average max temp is only 70F... I was thinking it was upper 70s already lol...turns out lower 70s is above normal for first week of June.

Dusting of white in the high terrain from a friend.

Throw in a rock slide for good measure up the road as it goes through Smugglers Notch. Sounds like several very large boulders came down out of no where.

We are up to 51F down here in the valley with partial sunshine. More radar echoes crossing the Champlain Valley, probably a few more -SHSN for the higher terrain.

Getting several reports of Light Snow Showers from hikers on Mansfield. Station has been showing 32-33F up there. From an all-time record high of 85F down to freezing this morning with snow showers. Crazy stuff.

6-10 day EPS average departures at 850... that ridge in the Midwest isn’t going anywhere so Kev is going to get his heat at some point. Might be like in the winter when a pattern change is delayed by a week but not denied. At some point that thing will probably roll into us.

To be fair, everyone is just trolling you because the models don’t show what you say. The closer we get though it may seem more like throwing darts at dates on a calendar and then not budging when new data comes to light. It does bring a fun little competition vibe between KFS and the models though, ha.

21F on MWN after they hit the highest May temp of 66F last week. Rollercoaster.

11am temps... Most of the Adirondacks are struggling in low 40s lol.

49/33 up here with partly sunny skis. Chilly!

Get June off on the right foot? Sunday Night A slight chance of rain and snow showers between 11pm and 1am, then a slight chance of snow showers after 1am. Increasing clouds, with a low around 32. Windy, with a northwest wind 21 to 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

I did get a chuckle out of the 18z GFS. It just laughed at DIT. Heat wave begins on the 8th here... Lasts for a couple days...June 10th. Then settles in for a real hot stretch for mid-June onward.

While thinking outside the box is generally good, I just don’t get the “put away the models” phrase. It comes off as this “Dorothy tap your shoes together three times and you’ll get the weather you desire” mentality. Weather models are what we do as a forum.

Hopefully Bob and Doug have a good time.

Kev, you’d definitely sneak a real hot one in around 6th or 7th on this look: But then a day or two later it gets beaten back to the west again. Now, if those lower heights off the coast aren’t as bullish, yeah it probably furnaces for 3-5 days, so start wishing for that to go away. I’m not calling for one or the other, just we may be on the gradient rather than in it. But if it’s further NE then it bakes.