powderfreak

That is a sick shot.

I guess it’s all based on expectations. Which I already get the idea won’t be met in your case lol. I could see a nice drenching half an inch for you.

What? You can get a nice soaking from like 0.30-0.50”. I’m sure your lawn would agree.

I feel like this is setting up to piss DIT off with like a “pedestrian soaking” if there’s such a thing... it’ll be just enough of a soaking to get comments on drought relief without being impressive. I get the vibe some want it to miss north or bring 2-3”.... 0.47”, no thanks lol.

81/48 Perfect day.

I bet it evolves towards eastern NY, Berkshires, Litchfield Hills, W. CT area.... or maybe even further west?

I think if the GFS was right with the ULL there would be some decent rainfall totals in narrow zones. Is it right? Probably not, ha. It's not a winter synoptic widespread precip, it rarely is in the summer, but I bet there'd be some narrow axis of heavy rain next week if this sat and spun for 3 days like it has. Hell it probably would end up more over NY State or something, but someone would get a nice drink. Dew points in the 60s it looks like, decent PWATs, if something got going I bet it would be slow moving and a few counties get drenched.

Oh for sure it's a lot more localized in the summer. But I do think there's more synoptic lift there with the upper level low pinwheeling energy around it than your generic convection with really small heavy rain footprints. I bet in that outcome you'd have small areas with more QPF than expected. That GFS run was a rainy week. This is the one time I think I lean with Kev though that you have to nod to drier out-comes until proven otherwise, which is a horrible way to forecast weather but hard to buck the trend.

Days and days of rain, haha. Upper level low just rains every afternoon next week.

That would help out a lot if the next 5 days accumulate this:

76/45 Roosters out and about.

We think this was the guy we found on our porch two nights ago. He was ravaging some dumpsters about a 1/4 mile away from us. These bears this year give no fuks, not afraid of humans at all. This guy looks like he could just roll the dumpster over.

My dog hates them. She usually chills in one of the bathrooms with music on that seems to hold back the shaking during the Independence Day celebrations. It seems to be the compression of the larger charges that really make her hit the deck, as we are pretty close to the field where the town launches them. Any rogue firecrackers definitely cause a strong reaction too. She ran off as a puppy during a 4th of July fireworks display as a pup. For a dog or any animal, it must sound like the end of the world.

I could see a chicken eating some firework debris, no? Can’t be healthy. On another note, the amount of crap that the commercial firework shows leave is insane too. Private is messy, but the aftermath of a commercial firework show makes a field look like it’s got WWII ordinance all over it. Stowe’s fireworks are a go this year luckily and we have a phenomenal back yard view.

J.Spin, Alex, Phin and the mountains can pick up 1-2 feet in 7-days of 50% snow showers ha.... I’ll get 6-8” at 1.5”/day and most folks though will see some passing flurries.

Yeah a bunch of 30-50% chances of showers outside the mountains doesn’t make one feel all warm and fuzzy.... but does a 30% chance of a passing shower mean there’s a 70% chance of dry? In the winter it’s the “days and days” of snow that turns into one period of snow and some occasional flurries for most folks. Really the only places where those daily chances seem to materialize are prone to orographics.

Ha, the only time I’ve ever seen State Police at the family cabin in the woods in Woodstock, CT was for fireworks. Just a bunch of threats about fines and citations but on July 4th they actually sent two troopers to investigate for low grade fireworks. They took what we had left too. I remember my uncle lost it on them... you came all the way out here from Tolland to steal some kids fireworks on the 4th of July... Ironically they were bought in New Hampshire lol.

I totally get enjoying whatever weather you want, but I don’t see the reasoning haha. Unless kids are different now, we spent the 90/70 days in someone’s cold basement playing Golden Eye. 75F and partly sunny was like 5 hours playing whiffleball or street hockey with the neighborhood crew until your parents force you home. Without a doubt we spent more time inside during high heat afternoons, huddled in A/C.

All joking aside, it’s nice to see the kids back outside. There’s a large daycare about a third of a mile down the road and the poor kids were huddled inside the A/C all week... finally was able to hear them on the playgrounds again today. They take big group walks on the Rec Path and such, so good to finally see them back outside enjoying the weather.

Just a fukkin’ sufferfest up here for those poor kids. You just hate to see those partly sunny days with low dews and 75-80F. I never would’ve gone outside to play whiffleball or ride mountain bike trails in this stuff.

75/52 This does feel good and as fun as it was, this is much better for being outside doing literally anything but swimming than the big heat was. Don’t hear any children crying either because they are cold .

Ha, not in a the way you hope. I'm laughing thinking about that memory. Got him a golf ball that he put under his sack to scratch the itch and then our Earth Science teacher caught him sitting on it in the middle of class... I picture HubbDave finding a student rolling a golf ball under his nut sack in the final weeks of the school year. "Get out, I don't care why. Just leave."

One of my best friends in high school got poison ivy when we were playing a round of golf. He must’ve gone home and took the weenie for a walk because he had such a bad ivy outbreak on his nuts that he had to leave school early for several days in a row. Sitting on the hard school chairs was so rough on his sack that it was getting inappropriate for him to sit in class scratching his nuts all day, lol.

Even if it didn't rain for a year I'm not sure I would fear a forest fire burning my house down in New England. Not saying it couldn't happen but that would be pretty far down on the list of worries.

3km NAM just rolls a bowling ball of moisture through. I naturally like it as it's further north than the 12km NAM, ha.