powderfreak

The DIT forecasting system... 80% personally desired weather and 20% model reality. If every model shows snow for days and days, go with it. Rain for days and days, toss.

Looks like a moist week on the Euro.

Today finally felt like we were coming out of it. Saw 54F on my car at 4pm, getting warm in the sunshine. However a dew of 18F means the breeze still has a little chill to it. Now we just need some leaves. I’m so ready for that fresh green of spring and done with stick season.

I think it’ll be nicer up here, it usually is in those cases as NW New England tries to get away from the maritime junk. I honestly haven’t looked at a damn thing except that gif Will posted, I’ll trust your analysis as it seems you looked deeper into it.

I can already see the photos posted of small patches of blue overhead in between rounds of showers while you try to show other SNE posters that it’s not all doom and gloom.

That needs to be inserted into the weenie Dictionary as exhibit A of that term. Great visual, just endless easterly flow above that thing.

Looks like our 850s go above freezing on Thursday for the first time in like 10 days up here? I remember in early May discussing how long a run of <0C at 850 it looked like...and it seems like it came true in full fashion with multiple days of snowfall included.

Hard to believe this is the scene in the Green Mountains on May 12th... The Western Slopes got crushed...certainly more over there than on the East side. Nice day for a weenie drive. A view looking at Trapp Family Lodge of "Sound of Music" fame....

Ha, for the record I am not going up there as Uphill Travel is currently closed (though not enforced) and they know that. There are still some Mtn Ops folks out and about and we also have some spies in the area. I am happy that after over a decade reporting snow on the mountain they regard anything with my stamp of approval as accurate. I've built up that trust. Anyway, it looked pretty damn caked on the hill this afternoon. Beautiful day to go for a weenie drive.

Yeah the ASOS up here has had a high of 45F under full sunshine in May. That’s a cold air mass to be in the 40s below 1,000ft with full sun this time of year. Dew points of 15F, lol. Bucks the trend of all the folks that say well if the sun is out in May it’s in the 60s.

12:45pm and still looks like winter in the higher terrain. 1,400ft and still 4” of snow caked to the trees. Just another May day in NNE.

Hopefully we see 70F later this week. One last winter morning in Vermont.

Bring 'em down? .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 831 PM EDT Monday...Several additional tweaks needed to crnt fcst which include increasing snowfall amounts acrs central VT into the NEK, lowering hrly temps under the heaviest precip rates and making the required ptype adjustments. Spotters, NWS employees and general public report 1 to 3 inches of snow from the western slopes into portions of central/northern VT, mainly above 800 feet. Have seen an uptick in power outages this evening, along with web cams confirming some slick travel acrs the higher trrn mainly above 1500 feet. As heavy wet snow continues for several more hours, anticipate additional outages acrs central/northern VT into portions of the NEK tonight. Will re-issue sps to cover this potential. Water vapor shows classic backside deformation/commahead appearance in moisture structure, while deepening and closing off 5h/7h circulation shifts from central VT into central Maine. RAP13 shows heaviest precip and best 700 to 500mb forcing lifting from near BTV to MVL to Lyndon thru 03z this evening, before exiting our cwa. This will result in additional snowfall of 1 to 3 inches mainly above 1000 feet for central/northern VT mtns, including the NEK with some localized totals in the 3 to 5 inch range possible by morning. Radar shows back edge of precip slowly approaching the western CPV, so anticipate another couple hours of snowfall acrs the western slopes. Expecting storm total qpf in this axis to range from 0.50 to 1.0 with some localized higher amounts possible.

12z NAM missed a close in forecast this afternoon. A few miles to the south. GFS and EURO both had a great showing at 12z. Not the NAM.

9pm.. 0.14" Nearing an inch of consistent good rates in a synoptic QPF event...I was caught completely sleeping, this little tomahawk came out of nowhere. 8" at the top of Sugarbush.

Hyde Park (the town bordering Morrisville to the north) from a friend who works in Stowe ski school... he's over 1,000ft. 3.5" today, and he got hit good in the last one.

Power outages going up around the region. West slopes particularly. This stuff is sloppy wet, unlike the drier colder snow the other day. Stowe at 1,100ft

The QPF seemed to over-perform too. I mean the summits had to get wrecked with a fast 6-10". MVL had 0.76" water in the past 6 hours with H85 of around 0C, that'll bring snow to the surface. Last four hours especially: 5pm.. 0.19" 6pm... 0.17" 7pm... 0.12" 8pm... 0.16" That's how you dynamically cool off... keep throwing 0.10-0.20" per hour into the bucket. This was more exciting for the surprise factor than the other day locally.

Looks like the deform band is moving a bit east of here. That narrow higher reflectivity band was just ripping snow. You should be getting into that.

Ha! I didn't even think of that. MVL was 57F for a high around 1pm! Now paste job.

My wife is livid. My backyard now. Increasing rapidly. This is wild. What an over-performer on May 11th. Just pounding snow.

Any thread where Wiz can have a hail orgasm and we can do snow gasm... good stuff.

lol that's like a Burlington suburb.

Look at the size of these things landing on my dog. Just clumps of flakes up to 1"+ in diameter.

West side is getting destroyed. Jericho, Vermont