powderfreak

I think rain/snow and mix lines along with snow amounts have to be the most difficult thing to forecast... especially given how many factors go into each and how visible the busts are to society. You bust by 5F or even say 10F on a high temp forecast in warm season, no one but weenies really notice even though it’s a pretty big bust. You bust by 6” in a snowstorm everyone knows it...or it’s freezing rain instead of snow, etc. Very narrow gradients in winter events seem real tough compared to other types of forecasting.

Yeah the only two we have left are Nosedive and Liftline if you really wanted it. Looks like a bunch of options there. Today:

Yeah going back to the 18th (not including today yet)... this is the average temperature for ORH and Mt Mansfield Summit: MMNV1... 57.7F ORH... 56.8F Today will probably be another day too that averages warmer at 4,000ft with a max/min so far of 66/52 at the summit and 64/48 at ORH. It's been warm up here when the 4,000ft picnic tables have a mean temperature almost a full degree higher than ORH. If I've seen anything over the last week, it's that snowpack does not like weekly average temperatures nearing 60F...departures of like +11/+14/+17 type stuff.

It might have been warmer at the MMNV1picnic tables this week than ORH. Maybe I’ll crunch the numbers later. Been telling you guys how hot it’s been, lol. Might end up losing 3-4 feet in 7 days with full sunshine. That sun this time of year means business.

Thought the mountain would have had more snow. Sugarloaf still looks tasty up top The snow has taken a beating over the past 8 days of full sun and pretty much constant highs of 70F and lows of 50F on hill. The valley has cooled off a lot at night but the high ground has stayed up there. Stake has lost 6” per day since last week... a foot gone every two days. Anything out in the open to sunlight has gotten pretty torched. Need to get in the woods where it’s still deep in the pines.

Yeah that’s Stowe. One of them is the poster “adk” who isn’t around the forum much anymore. I think I was in the Dominican Republic when that storm hit, ha. Thought it would be a safe time to travel and not miss any snow.

We cloudy now up here. 66F at 3000ft.

Warmer than that at the picnic tables. Mild 65F on the summits. This has been a weird week. Or not, just backdoor climo.

Day 8 in a row of just sun and great temps. An outdoor activity orgasmic stretch. Would lose my mind in the winter though watching snow showers come to die here.

Don't under estimate our force field. Those showers didn't stand a chance against San Diego weather. Nothing but sun right now still. Looks like filtered sunshine immediately to the south though. Nothing but CLR skis and a nice day for another hike.

We are -3.0 on the month here... but 8 of last 10 days have been above normal. That should tell you how obscenely cold the first two weeks of May were. Snowy May too. Pretty crazy to have 10 days average above normal but we still have lower departures than SNE.

Bright sun again waking up.... but oh shit, the streak may be in danger as there are a couple bands of clouds moving in. Trying to keep that mostly sunny streak going for NNE.

Must have better mixing as the dews at the same max temp times aren’t that bad. 2pm dews... much hotter ambient temps NNE but also drier. Guess that’s exactly what @dendrite said, ha.

Both of those days look hottest from me to you. St Lawrence Valley probably wins but some early heat coming. Pretty mild nights for MVL too, with low 60s for mins both days at 5am. Wed Thur

Superstar still looks stupid deep. No skier traffic or grooming, that thing will last a while.

Warmer up here at the picnic tables at 4kft. Lift shack thermometer says mid-60s at 3,600ft and MMNV1 showing 66F. Another day another snow shot. Dog cooling off in the cold pocket. Once you step into the woods with snow it feels like you just opened the refrigerator door with this blast of cooler air.

Holy sh*t this is hot for here. BTV pretty much forecasting a heat wave for MVL... 90/92/89 Tuesday Partly sunny and hot, with a high near 90. Light southwest wind. Wednesday Partly sunny and hot, with a high near 92. Calm wind becoming southwest around 5 mph in the afternoon. Thursday A 30 percent chance of showers after 2pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 89. Southwest wind around 6 mph.

Oh look, another sunny day with temps in the 70s and dews in the 30s. Had one rogue OVC ob this morning from the ASOS...that was close, immediately back to CLR. I’m not sure I remember such a continuous stretch of clear skies up here as the past 7 days.

Those are some sweaty PWAT values. Southerly flow ahead of a closed low this time of year usually means we could be in it for a while. Those things don't move fast. Warm look too with 18-19C H85 temps, ha.

It was 72/28 at only 19% RH at 8pm. Crazy how late the sun is out for it to still be at max diurnal mixing as late as 8pm! By 9pm it was 62/40 as the decoupling started, but it's crazy how long the afternoon warmth can carry into the evening this time of year before the nighttime vacuum starts.

My dad sent me a screen shot of his weather app for the family locations. One of these is not like the others. We are usually the ones getting butt-banged up here on upslope clouds or blocked flow stratus.... spring backdoor fronts are the one time we really get some nice weather compared to elsewhere.

81/38 with 22% RH and a NE breeze.

Wow. That’s cold for 3pm in late May.

We can tube now with the water level from snow melt, usually too low to tube most of it in mid-summer except a short stretch upstream of the Waterbury Res. But no way sitting in a tube in water that has to be like like 40F tops. Mid summer the lower water level and heating from rocks seems to get it up to a temp where you don’t lose feeling in your limbs lol. Right now it’s still cold enough that >60F dews might cause a low cloud right over the water surface.

My dad called it the “first crappy day in a while” in NE CT. He’s a pretty good barometer of the general public. They go from a week of sunshine and warmth to low-mid 60s with wind and clouds... no matter what semantics game is going on, the population notices it’s not 80F and sunny. They’ve been quarantining for over a week now in Woodstock. Should be about good to start getting out.