powderfreak
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Everything posted by powderfreak
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34/12 up here, should wet bulb if we get better precip later. Had some flurries earlier. Cold and windy.
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The only value the ICON has is it comes out early. Heres 12z:
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But it’s rock steady. Hoping everyone gets pasted. Need some good vibes tonight ha.
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That HRRR continues to prod along on an island by itself. This is fascinating.
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Love to see ya’ll coming around to the HRRR as a tool. I used it a bunch this winter, no one seemed to like it, didn’t gain much traction lol.
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Not much more than that image... 0.66”. It’s a 6-hr thump but so much model spread. 1.5” or 6”.
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Man GFS has less than half the ECM up here on an 18 hour forecast.
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It’s up to 0.66” QPF up here now. I have no idea what to expect but it’s got about a 6-hr period of 0.1”/hr water. That would thump for a bit.
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00z Euro also with a real sharp gradient.
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The Canadian version of the HRRR lol. That’s one helluva gradient.
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ICON is another early out model, no big wholesale changes there from 18z except it tightened up the gradient in NE Mass. Worecester County varies from like 0.3” to a foot from south to north.
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That’s some crazy early variance on the 00z runs. Nice, gotta keep it interesting.
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Congrats Chickens, Lava and Dryslot on 00z 3KM NAM
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Euro is on its own though with the northern stream. I know no one likes the HRRR but it’s early 00z looks suggest a more congealed precip shield over SNE/CNE instead of the split two-part thing the Euro has been showing.
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You seem like a good spot.
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18z EURO is odd with almost like two different areas of precip. One moving through SNE and one now up into this area. I would imagine it ends up congealed together into one precip shield closer to the SFC low. Just a very odd look.
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Hell I'm enjoying tracking something even down there. Anything but the doom and gloom all day long now of COVID. A reason to look at the models. Hope this busts nicely and you all get pasted white.
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Razor sharp edge on the 3km simulated radar... the edge is pretty stable there for several hours of pounding to the north. Almost looks like it's trying to show the Blue Hills there south of BOS with the blue dot (maybe a bit east of Blue Hill?) lol
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Not that anyone asked, but the 18z ICON also wants to have a very sharp gradient just NW of BOS. It's certainly not just high terrain, the models seem to be wanting to move some heavier snow into NE Mass. Maybe the resolution can't really show it like the 3km NAM but the overall vibe is pretty similar... it may not take much to drop that heavier paste right inside 128 on the north end.
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3km NAM really keeps the immediate NW burbs of BOS dynamically isothermal. It's got good snows right to the water on the North Shore and that's real close to BOS with strong UVVs.
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Oof, what a cut back in the Catskills the past 24 hours.
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Man Euro gets 1/2” QPF up here? Maybe we can cover the grass again.
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Yeah those are 10:1... take 7-8:1 and they are probably pretty close.
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It is crazy how different the GFS is from other models even at 24-48 hours out now.
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GGEM’s out.
