powderfreak

Yeah just what was needed. Had 5.5” at home with no board clearing but I bet there’s a good shot of water in that. The snowbanks definitely look like they have the heft. Got really windy this afternoon up at the mountain but 1500ft was showing mostly in the 6-7” range. Upper mountain was very similar, not much change at all with elevation, which is normal in synoptic events. Looks like MVL snuck up to 33F for a high but then dropped pretty fast this evening into mid-20s now. Overall I think this event was pretty well modeled and fit my thinking of a dense 4-7” locally with ratios under 10:1. Pretty classic SWFE style.

Looks like 5.5” of dense stuff at home with no board clearing. I’m melting it now so we’ll see what the water is. Town looks great with snowbanks back. 1500ft and 3000ft were both 6-7” range. Just called it 6” for the resort total. Like to be conservative on the whole.

3,000ft. Feels like there’s at least 0.66-0.75” water in it.

You expect a lot from models on the edge of p-types lol. GFS had zero snow there.

3000ft High Road Plot.

Had just a touch over 3” at 6:45am. J.Spin’s 8:1 ratio makes sense, stuff was real dense. Should easily hit the 0.50-0.75” QPF forecasts.

It is just crushing snow. Rate isn’t that high (1”/hr) but it has to be at least a tenth of liquid per hour.

I like this look for upslope, ha.

A little over 3” and pounding snow. A lot of water in this, seems like we got some sleet at some point. I bet we hit the QPF forecasts.

It is hammering snow. A few inches so far eyeballing it.

Yup, this evolution looks classic for eastern coastal plain zones, waiting for dynamics to ignite it as the low heads ENE, lean eastward in projections. If it retros and lingers, eventually sufficient moisture will be thrown back on cyclonic flow into the mountains. I'm surprised at the number of folks who aren't slam dunking with this set-up on eastern coastal plain sections. Looks like a solid set up to me. Toss the jacked up Canadian guidance.

It was never a unanimous hit, of course it’s different up here but the model runs always had that look of “nope”... maybe Maine but the eastern solutions verify much more frequently than the super tucked in lows. Without a doubt the more likely solution is always east of the western outliers.

Yeah I’m shocked given the guidance that people seem to be riding the GGEM/RGEM and NAM guidance. I’m always shoveling the Canadian models’ snow in the deep interior, all winter long. The interior deform band always spooks but these coastal lows still tend to be SE of mid-range guidance.

Yeah, I mean it’s on a razors edge at 12z. You see that you have to know it’s a coin flip and could go either way. Gore Mtn hasn’t changed all that much to be honest.

METAR KORH 020155Z AUTO 09003KT 1 1/2SM -SN OVC019 M01/M05 A3023 Yeah 1.5sm snow will accumulate for sure, NAM missing that.

Well then that’s hyperbole. Gore went from like 2” to 1” between 18z and 00z.

Where? Didn’t see much 18z to 00z changes except trimmed some small amounts on the southern edge.

00z NAM continues to drop some good frozen QPF on the east side of the Greens with strong SE low level flow. We’ll see.

25/20 Wind just started registering SE at 3-5mph, good direction for at advecting surface moisture in here.

It’s almost like people don’t know how to resize, ha. I love screen grabs, but most modern non-flip phones make it easy to do.

Ha! Lol I thought it was for him. I was like Randolph shouldn’t worry about a warmer solution. If it’s metro west, then yeah always worry about rain more than whiff.

Absolutely not. Too far OTS is always the biggest risk in coastal storms for the interior.

Lol we are a little too high in the clouds. It’s true though even 5 years ago it used to bother me missing an event but since about 2015-16, just wait for the next shortwave.

Lol... so worried about a possible flaw, it cracks me up every time. Models show 5” instead of 7” and I picture you going “uh oh did I buy the wrong place? Someone tell me its just noise. Can’t have an imperfect wind flow.”

Looks like a pretty decent front end burst this evening of snow/sleet in SVT and SNH. Some decent QPF numbers spreading snow/ice through CNE. in