powderfreak

Probably means suppression depression here. The kiss of death is “probably looks good for most” when it comes from a SNE’er .

Was surprisingly warm this morning, freezing levels rose to 2,000ft overnight. Was 34F with a coating of wet snow at 1500ft when I arrived at 5am.

Nice 6z Euro run.

Great EPS mean snow run for ski country.

I'm only busting Phin's balls... if you love weather, the total cost is very low relatively speaking to everything else in life. I don't subscribe to any service in the summer.

I do weatherbell. But have had weathermodels, which was good. Just got used to the layout of wxbell. Some also like stormvista.

A weather model subscription to get the EURO for a winter probably costs less than 3 inches of one single log in your many thousand square foot home, lol. I'd be signing up right now. I drop subscriptions on things like candy. If I want to watch a show and I can do it with $8 for a month, done deal without thinking.

No subscription?!

Yeah we are currently in the deep southwest flow sink hole downwind of the Adirondacks. The Greens get the air lifting around here but not until you are into the NEK does it really start falling. We see this from time to time when the mid-level SW flow is pretty unblocked.... the standing wave downslope consumes Sugarbush/Bolton/Stowe/Smuggs stretch. Of course there are other times when the SW flow and the right inversion height blocks the flow and crushes us. But the models have been pretty steady on a largely unblocked flow depositing precipitation well downwind into the NEK.

What great afternoon light today from the top of Spruce Peak.

18z NAM continues a solid Advisory event.

Radar looks like a good burst moving through your area. Just virga over here.

That’s be a nice snowy day... 4-7”

That would do a lot for the vibe of the forum, lol.

12z ICON and GFS not buying those much colder solutions.

Yeah for sure. At some point our luck should break right... maybe not luck but climo will eventually kick in at some point. Or maybe climo is the reason we've had so many days of snow cover in a shit pattern despite it not being deep. I feel like 66% of the days since Nov 1st have been at like 1-3" snow depth, lol. The other reason this might go our direction is the calendar year is no longer 2020 but 2021 when this hits

Getting interested again after the 6z Euro and 12z NAM lol.

Finally saw some brief blue skies this afternoon, after a day of snow showers and even some brief 1/4sm vis bursts. Cold, winter weather finally.

It vastly over does QPF in its mountain grids sometimes. Almost like it mistakes rime or some sort of QPF trigger in the algorithm. The synoptic set up doesn’t support these values... MVL here isn’t getting 0.40+ water and the mountain 1+... MWN isn’t getting 2”+ QPF. Especially with such a sharp drop off around all precip maximums. You’ll see that a lot with the 3km NAM. You gotta average the highs and lows but often it’s a flaw in the model for the high QPF dots over the mountain grid points.

Down to 6F at 9pm at the ASOS near here, the snow cover certainly helps, even if only 2-3” of now crusty snow... no grass blades exposed certainly helps wring the cold out. The top of the ski area is 3F, with a stiff breeze. 44G48 wind speed for a wind chill of -26F right now at the top of the chairlifts, ha. This afternoon and evening is the first time in a long while it’s felt legitimately winter cold.

Yeah the beam is just too high in that area... because we can't use the 1st tilt as it's blocked by terrain and need to go up to higher degree scans. Composite works best up in your areas but still overshoots the upslope usually. I generally do what you do and you can infer what's happening based on the signature further south towards Mansfield. If echos are building in the northern Champlain Valley and adjacent western slope areas up there in Richford, you can be sure it's also lighting up over the Jay area. I've never really looked but it just occurred to me you might get better coverage out of the Canadian radar sites. I'd assume there's one in Montreal or near there. Ground is really flat around there so it might get a decent sample around Jay. The big limiting factor is higher terrain near the radar sites (ie BTV). Like GYX out of Gray, ME actually samples Phin at the same elevation overhead as BTV does here, despite me being only being like 20 miles from the radar site and Phin 60 miles from the GYX site. Both of us get sampled at around 5-6k feet elevation.

It’s *almost* like you do this for a living. Almost.

Radar never really shows Jay in the low level precip as the beam overshoots it, but I bet you’re doing well in this regime. We actually have some sun coming out down south here now after some good pulses of snow.

Ha nothing but dollar bills evaporating off those heated walkways. Just straight steaming at this point.

Snowing borderline heavy now. Visibility is probably 1/4 mile.