powderfreak

It’s all about reasonable expectations, no need to go wild with everything in flux, ha. I’m always optimistically hopeful for better outcomes but you gotta be reasonable. Everyone also expects some SE ticks, it’s the EURO. We just like to get a little snow here and there and not whiff totally.

3-6” would be phenomenal after days of looking at nothing but cirrus. A plowable refresh to the landscape and existing pack is the goal here. Still don’t believe it, ha.

Eastern Mass on all of these runs gets absolutely smoked by warm conveyor belt moving through... who cares if it warms up at the end or even flips over when stuff is about to shut off? Going to be some meat and potatoes falling in that inflow.

The ECMWF has over-amped itself at some point on almost every East Coast event the past few years. It’s fun to look at for interior and NNE, but it does have a bias at this time range too. It seems to be in the short term but not near term that it shows up.

The Randolph observer on CoCoRAHS probably enters 18+ into the total column on that run for sure.

That secondary take over tucked into the mid-coast is wild.

NJ Coast low?! You and Phin get the strong warm conveyor belt

3km NAM is interesting. Crushed NYC.

Good look for ya’ll.

Warm conveyor belt just slays through Long Island.

Still lots of variability.

Dec 2003 is the dream. 18”+ BTV and BOS.

That’s even better up here east, mid-levels much better up this way than over N.NY.

There's still a ton of spread in the 6z EPS ensembles... several with 0 precip up here at all, other's with 1" back in MSS in N.NY. Uncertainty is still very high IMO.

It happens more these days because we start tracking storms at like Day 9. By Day 5 it feels like it's almost "go time." Can't lock in a solution before the NAM even has a chance to sample it, ha.

I got weenied by half a dozen for saying there's still plenty of time left, ha. We have a lot of time left still. Another 48 hours of models.

Looks like the H5 trended quite a bit further north on last night's runs. Guess this is why the mid-level deform axis is in the 'Dacks on some of these. 700mb low over head up here. Probably a bit too far north now, ha.

@PhineasC is going to get smoked. Nice look there with this north tick. Still has the huge air pile-up in Eastern Mass though no matter what happens.... big QPF there.

Saw my trusty GGEM with 1.72” at MVL and had to refresh three times to make sure ha.

WTF happened overnight, ha. Up to 0.5-1.0” or even more on some models now.

Not that cold. 2F but 0.5” of arctic sand fell overnight. Smallest flakes possible but still snowing. Definitely didn’t let us radiate at all.

I didn’t read it as an implication about anywhere else. He just said what it showed. Eastern areas are a lock for big snows from the NNE standpoint. A NW run is not bad at all when it was threatening full on suppression depression for most of the forum.

Can always do remote learning for sure. The public has been trained. Use technology on bad weather days. Didn’t have that option or infrastructure in the past for sure.

Agreed there, by far. Crushed all seasons real fast in the stay at home era. Phenomenal show.

Yeah it's real even in the weaker/lighter solutions. Of course there's a larger scale deep layer easterly flow and mid-level lift spreading precip way west, but that's like E MA version of meso-scale precipitation genesis... almost like orographics. But the lift is from speed convergence of the flow coming ashore not terrain, and some ever so subtle veering of the flow from ESE to ENE under 850mb helping the lowest levels. It's just going to pile up air into E MA. That type of strong low level lift also should result in an area of sinking/subsidence air nearby... almost like a standing wave pattern for a time. Very similar to upslope when you get waves of lift/sink develop. Of course any mid-level deform banding can overcome that lower stuff too. Need to watch for some more acute minimums that may not be traditional. I'm very high confidence at this point in E. MA QPF max... even glancing blow and weaker, you will get that stronger lift there relative to elsewhere. The mechanism for convergence is pretty strong, sustained cross barrier flow with the shoreline.