powderfreak

We are in agreement. 3-7” or 4-8” splitting hairs. Maybe a spot 8 or 9” Killington/Sugarbush at high elevation where they do SE blocked low level flow well. Ludlow/Okemo too.

Models haven’t changed in days it seems. Not much to talk about. If one came out congrats Montreal or congrats ORH, then it’s probably discussed. I’d say if you see something worth mentioning, drop it in. We all know we are checking them out.

Cooled off real nice since yesterday. High of 46F yesterday and sitting 28/17 now, wet-bulb in mid-20s. Nice cold air drain.

Not much to add to the 18z EURO. Event has seemed locked in, I’m not sure I’ve seen as consistent a run of QPF progs as the past two days… every run is within a tenth or two of the previous runs for like 8-10 model cycles. I still think it’s a bit over done but it’s just so consistent in the 0.5-0.75” range for a wide area every single run.

Yeah it must be about to snow in NNE lol.

Still like a general 3-7” for NNE… liked that two days ago and still like it. Maybe a lolli to 8” somewhere near Dendrite? But overall it’s been or seemed to be a pretty easy forecast north of the mix line.

That’s been my hold up… ratios. And getting widespread 6-8” will need a good 3/4ths inch QPF. Not sure if this has it in it. I like widespread 4-6” with maybe some spot 6-8”.

That 12z HRRR is juicy.

I feel like BTV and GYX went a little aggressive last night but it’ll be ratio dependent IMO. Splitting hairs as a bunch of 6.2” grids trigger 6-8” maps.

That’s why 8:1 is usually a good starting point for an event where the lift is largely due to mid level warming, unless it’s extreme cold in the antecedent air mass. Decent 700mb warm front lifts north ahead of the frontal wave… might start as ok ratios but we all know these events like needles and higher density flake types.

It's insane seeing the difference between those who mix out and those who don't when it's torching aloft. Like if that barrier breaks, it's off the races. If it doesn't, it's a whole other planet. Feels like April with sunshine and warmth... reminds me of April when further southeast is locked in coastal mank at temps in the 40s while we are sunning on the Picnic Tables in t-shirts.

Yeah I don't know the climo down there as much, but the whole set-up just seems to be lower ratio snow when it's warming in the mid-levels and not overly cold to begin with. The QPF seems juiced but the dynamics don't seem to match those progs. I don't know, something about this system doesn't scream "take the over." Sort of like the 10:1 snow map 6" area really is the 4" area.

I actually think it makes sense that the higher snowfall zone becomes more acute/shrinks and we see a more narrow zone as this gets zeroed in on (as compared to the ensembles which show a larger geographic area of heavier snowfall). I still think ratios will not be as high as 10:1 in the higher QPF snow zones... even up north. I like 8:1 flakes in these mid-level WAA events, taking everything down a notch from the snow maps. 3-7" is my call for CNE/NNE posters above RT 2. I guess localized areas could see a spot 8" amount in SVT/SNH. Tossing any 10" amounts. I like Dendrite's location.

30s to 60s in such a short distance is incredible. What a map there. That's a saver.

Mansfield summit sitting 47F currently. Stake depth didn't take too much of a hit today though. Sitting at 16" depth. The only thing missing from an April vibe is the lack of daylight.

I saw something flying in the flood light off my porch this evening... moth? Rare to see any insect flying around in mid-December here. Today was like April climo. We started cooling off a little but then mixed out again and spiked into the upper 50s this evening. Pretty damn crazy. Shades of Dec 2015. CLR skis all afternoon with mild temperatures, it was unbelievable. Such a nice day skiing. Soft snow, mild temperatures, everyone having a great time. Folks really do love sunny mild weather for skiing. Check out the MVL obs... mild, then cooling off, then spiking high as it mixes again with a 14F increase from 4-6pm. Glorious hero turns in the soft snow though. Like I said, felt like April but with much less snowpack. We do enjoy these days though if Mother Nature is going to torch.

I saw something flying in the flood light off my porch this evening... moth? Rare to see any insect flying around in mid-December here. Today was like April climo. We started cooling off a little but then mixed out again and spiked into the upper 50s this evening. Pretty damn crazy. Shades of Dec 2015. CLR skis all afternoon with mild temperatures, it was unbelievable. Such a nice day skiing. Soft snow, mild temperatures, everyone having a great time. Folks really do love sunny mild weather for skiing. Check out the MVL obs... mild, then cooling off, then spiking high as it mixes again with a 14F increase from 4-6pm. Glorious hero turns in the soft snow though. Like I said, felt like April but with much less snowpack. We do enjoy these days though if Mother Nature is going to torch.

It’s weird because I also see this map, made same time as the other one. Shows a bit more 6”+ in spots down south too.

It’s a pretty damn BS reason he’s not posting. I need a northern cohort to balance the force.

Yeah the different grid sizes are worlds apart in terms of solutions, ha. That 3km was a nice thump to ice, ending as some rain for a good chunk of posters. Would likely end with white ground for many.

Yeah I realize that’s what TauntBlizz must’ve been talking about.

18z NAM: Edit: you must mean the 3km one, my bad.

At least no one is getting kicked with a “glad we don’t live there” when they are down.

Zero. Zero before, zero after lol. Folks are just busting your balls dude. You already tried it this morning by wondering if this rains straight up into New Hampshire once someone said something about south of the Pike.

But when your snow melts you try to melt everyone else’s?