powderfreak

That is often the model run pattern, I like that line of thinking based on anecdotal experience.

Oh for sure. Based on guidance it's hard to see a complete whiff or an inland cutter either. This one definitely lines up so far with enough model spread that there are the usual classic worries between geographic regions. My gut says fast flow wherever it goes, could be a very solid hit somewhere but residence time seems to be quick. Fast always makes me think east though. Models have over-amped storms in the mid-range for years now it seems.

Everyone has a least likely scenario and everyone has a scenario where some other part of the forum gets raked. That's the real fear, lets be honest. Like you raining while interior gets smoked, NNE is always more worried with smoking cirrus while SE gets smoked. It's a funny dynamic but regardless of the set-up, there are some default "least of my worries" for every poster depending on location . They are opposites too, like the least of worries up here is raining while the least of worries down there is flurries.

Nice sunset this evening leaving work.

Cold out there. Car said 2F leaving this morning at 7am.

Yeah that would be the obvious concern because it’s certainly not going to rain up here. It’s either going to snow or whiff.

Completely meaningless. But gotta talk about something haha. Wednesday is a long way away. That mean includes Saint Lawrence Valley jacks and whiffs.

Barnes Camp plot total at Notch gate. Nor’incher.

You gotta love anomalies.

I will say I thought we'd see more, but there is a nice fresh layer out there. Cold too this evening, it's 13F outside. Still some flurries occasionally moving through, high-vis but floaty flakes. The "snowpack" is sparkling and despite only 5" of crusty snow with a fresh topping, it looks wintry out in town. Wife and I just walked home and it's got a winter vibe. Much better than bare ground and perpetual autumn. Snowfall and especially depth this season hasn't been noteworthy by any means, but I do know it's seemed white outside a decent amount of the time since sometime in November.

It’s so far out in time. Models extrapolating current conditions every 6 hours… Dryslot has said it, but wait till Wednesday night, who knows what we see by then. Precip would move in early Friday AM, that’s an eternity.

DIT is closer to being right at 18z than he was at 12z.

Maybe a bit over 1.5” here? Ha, those model runs with 0.30-0.45” QPF certainly didn’t happen here.

There are worse means for much of the forum.

Some light snow, half inch coating? Nothing to get too excited about, ha. Radar looks like a shredded mess. We’ll see if we can get 2” today.

Ground white with 2-6” for long stretches of time is apparently deep. November seemed white but no where close to deep… and somehow that low ratio, but solid QPF, snow event followed by a ZR event has kept a snowpack and banks. All we want is a net gain from this current event. Priorities are low. We aren’t swimming in snow.

Here’s BTV’s…

Gotcha ha. I thought it’d be one image but guess that’s big if they include CAR too.

Do they not include their NH zones?

00z HRRR went far north with a very blocked flow and snowfall upstream of barriers. It does make sense if it stays north and a bit more mild. The cold air advection in the lowest levels quickly deep into the western sides of barriers, aided by topographic slowing/convergence/lifting, can certainly favor those west of both of us. Depends on when the cold air gets situated. Pre-event CAA we are good on more eastern orientation… later in the event with shallow surface cold hitting first, anything northwest is best.

Yeah this is more of a boundary sags south, then stalls, as another shortwave rides the gradient. Not a true anafrontal situation for the jackpot zone (wherever it might be)… it looks to turn to snow for some latitude before the second energy moves through.

During one of the bursts of snow this afternoon... nice to see even if only a coating to an inch.

18z HRRR looked better too. Just another variation.

Heavy graupel and giant flakes.