powderfreak
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Everything posted by powderfreak
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Ski area has another 2” since the snow board flip at 6am. Almost 5” including yesterday daytime snow.
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That’s awesome. Lol who would’ve thought. Even DIT was low.
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That’s an awesome scene. Love to see it.
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The last few pages have been awesome. Congrats to all. Need some photos when daylight breaks.
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Agreed for your area and the Whites. Easterly flow ahead of the low and surface blocked NW flow as it pulls away. Should be a good snow wrapping around the mountains from SE to NW.
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I don't hate it. The 3km NAM is just as useless or useful... It bounces around but I've come to like the HRRR four main runs a day over the 3km NAM. 3km NAM has some high terrain errors in QPF/moisture progs that the HRRR seems to resolve better too. That affects my opinion a bit. Synoptic coastal storms might be different. -
The southerly aspect plays a big role too. You face a great direction. I know we all like the idea of a dark, shaded north facing spot but in reality, no thanks. Hard pass. Humans need sunshine and in a cold climate, it's nice.
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Shut 'em down... a winter weather advisory is good enough cover reason regardless of outcome.
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I will say the HRRR extended runs at 00/06/12/18z have been pretty good this season IMO. I've watched it more than normal for whatever reason. The hourly differences can be crap, but the earlier runs showing a good hit from you to BOS were in that extended range that has seemed ok this winter at least up here. Who knows. It's not terrible when taken in the aggregate, just the hour to hour runs diminish it's value. It'd be like running the 3km NAM hourly, of course there's going to be a lot of variety.
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Ha, "sir you did not pass the field sobriety test."
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lol that's awesome. But it does fit. It's all air. Just feathers.
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Got a good 2” of fluff today at 1500ft. Zero moisture, high ratio.
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See if this works: https://www.wunderground.com/radar/us/vt/burlington/cxx I think it just defaults to BTV radar but you need to play with the zoom and scans to get it how you want.
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Yeah it's been snowing pretty good at the ski area. Only an inch though it looks like, feels like more than that though given the dearth of snowfall lately. Good lake connection from Lake Ontario and upslope assist.
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It looks like ratios would be high, the snow growth zone is down into the summits. That’s generally a good sign to maximize moisture.
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Ah gotcha. Yeah over the last many years you just get used to nor'easters being more coastal plain storms, ha. You look for the other storms that don't snow in those areas. It's a tough habit to break though, always wanting to be included in those big ticket items. We'll get the consistent snow cover and some good storms, and they'll get the occasional big moisture laden ocean storm.
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This is the first one though right? The last one missed north.
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That's a very interesting pattern. Off and on. Interesting if there are different initializations or parameters in place between certain runs.
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1-3". Some upslope snow showers. Still snow on the trees has kept it wintry, high of 32F today helped. Much better than the single digits and below zero cold of recent days. We rely on some weak moisture and NW flow for this system on the backside. Ratios likely help as it's cold aloft. Maybe J.Spin and favored calm fluffer locations pull 4"?
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You look good on that run. I like being where the QPF gradient is, that's often where mid-level banding finds itself for whatever reason. That QPF map leads one to envision a band paralleling the Maine coastline somewhere on the Plain, and then curling into SNE. Good slug of precip to it's east and a sharper than modeled drop off to its west.
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Ah shit you’re right. Didn’t realize it was raining down there. My bad for sure. I’ll delete other post. Here’s the snow storm.
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It's pretty cool that you can see a weenie band in the 18z EURO QPF progs. Looks like a finger of mid level fronto that develops on the front side and as the low passes that longitude. H7 wind flow goes pretty much calm over the zone, which seems weird and maybe I'm not visualizing it correctly. I'd think there'd be more convergence vs divergence in the wind barbs.
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I was thinking 2-5" for Woodstock area, so that fits. I think there's a low prob of 2" unless snow growth somehow is putrid and would lean more towards 12:1 and 4-5". Mid-level banding is always the wild card west of the best QPF.
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Sensor malfunction? I honestly have no idea how those lightning sensors work to begin with. We watch them a lot at the ski resort in the summer and they do seem to like phantom strikes sometimes. “Like well that one looks on top of us but no one heard or saw anything.” Then again they are correct a lot of the time.
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50s and then a snowstorm? Sign me up. High of 32F here today.
