powderfreak

18z EPS mean…. Still a decent amount of spread in the individual members. The Probability maps liked the Dead Bodies best.

That was a bit different though with a wave riding a frontal boundary and waiting for cold air to come in, while this classic SWFE look has cold in place ahead of it.

Surface cold usually resolves colder while mid-levels go warmer. Agreed with you there.

This shot is incredible. Such cool topography, and dominated by rock/pitch that doesn't like to hold soil.

Pulling for you to jackpot over the rest of the local area down south. SWFE are your bread and butter, you've got climo on your side in this look. That area of N.MA/S.VT/S.NH seems to like to max out on SW wind aloft pumping WAA over top the colder southern extremity of the dense air lodged at the surface.

The irony further north is that BTV is actually doing pretty well there relative to the NNE mtn locations. BTV is one good storm away from near normal while the mountain areas would require quite the pattern to set up.

Absolutely on all of this. We cannot have a great winter without above normal precipitation IMO. We can’t get it done with a couple big storms either like places south. Even a great month won’t do it. A solid above normal NNE mountain winter is a sustained pattern that spans several months. Many of the big years have a “vibe” but it’s less common to see than the times of struggle. There are literally entire winters where 7-day totals seem to be 12-18” for months on end. Sometimes it dips to 6” in 7-days but then there will be periods of 30” weeks. I notice it on the mountain in terms of weekly snow totals. This year has had a lot of days with 1-5” week long totals.

I think it was Tamarack at one point who described NNE winters as this: 2/3 will be below average snowfall and 1/3 will be above average. Average is derived through more “below normal” snow years than “above.” Largely with the high annual averages you need wire-to-wire good winter pattern to get above… but when it happens, it goes bonkers. The more likely probability in any given winter is below average in a weird way. I honestly see that in a lot of the Mansfield season snow tallies since 2000. Even 3 of 4 will be below the mean but the one above winter is way above. Another thing is I do think NNE had a stronger than normal run in like the 2007-2017 period. A lot of the newer or shorter periods of records (Cocorahs stuff) might bias high in that time frame but are starting to mellow out a bit. Like I used to think Mansfield averaged a solid 300” starting at 2000. Now I believe it’s more like 275” after the past 3 winters. With a lot of 220-250” type stuff but then throw in a 375” as the above year and the “average” is higher than the median/mode values.

Yeah that can get out of hand in a hurry. Hopefully it just goes downstream. Here’s an ice jam in the Adirondacks on Feb 18 the other day…from 3 feet to 15 foot level very fast.

Today felt colder than expected. Low-20s at the ski area base and -4F to +24F down in the valley for todays diurnal. More wind than expected too. I thought we’d be more like upper 20s to near 30F.

Nice region wide event. Mass Pike delineation. Plenty of ice with the snow south of the Pike.

Yeah that one is going to rain, looks like a half inch to inch total in some spots.

Welcome to the NNE crew!

Some high-end brief periods of snow/wind. These are days when kids can blow like tumbleweeds through the base area. They assume the athletic stance and enter the white abyss. Trying to keep each other in sight. The video and noise can really give some texture to the scene. Wish I could figure out how to post it from groomer JStaff. The winds were insane with the squalls. Zero visibility stuff even below 2,000ft.

Even Red Sox Stats was tweeting about it, ha. https://mobile.twitter.com/redsoxstats/status/1495153092324691983

This is awesome. I think a lot of people had some weather fun today, even the non-interested public. The cell phone alerts for Snow Squall Warnings, followed by wind/snow for many, with low visibility… it felt like the winter version of a summer cold front.

Looks like about 3” at home today.

The 6:25PM ob here… oddly I can’t find it in the METAR anymore. https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/getobext.php?table=1&banner=off&sid=KBTV

Interesting! I thought that was a 5 min obs… but 1/8 SQ is awesome.

Second line moving through up here. BTV Airport showing the M1/4sm visibility for under 1/4 mile. METAR KBTV 192325Z AUTO 30015G21KT M1/4SM SN

Second line moving through up here. BTV Airport showing the M1/4sm visibility for under 1/4 mile. METAR KBTV 192325Z AUTO 30015G21KT M1/4SM SN

Cool Satellite image. SW flow WAA stuff ahead and then the cold front right behind it.

Snow Squall Warning. We'll see if this can amplify as it hits the mountains.

Ha that's awesome. 5" out of that. I think 3-4" at Stowe. No idea down in town but nice to see MVL ripping moderate snow for a while.

Sounds like I-89 south of Montpelier has a wreck involving up to a dozen vehicles from this morning's 1"/hr snowfall.