powderfreak

Not ideal measuring location but with no wind I'll take it for now, ha. That table stack...

2" in past hour....3" in 2 hours... so a 1.5"/hr rate. Flake size got nice and fluffy so snowfall rate increased a lot from the denser snow this morning.

Really ripping outside. 4-5" maybe? Upper level support has moved in.

Now it is absolutely ripping.

3-4” up here? Police had to close down Harlow Hill to the resort for a time this morning due to snow. This video is wild of this truck making it up the hill… https://www.instagram.com/reel/CaZ2JF4lDJb/?utm_medium=copy_link

Pretty significant 24-hour changes in the GFS. A day ago to the current run. Plenty of discussion of how SWFE work though as folks understand the game. Snowfall will bump northward and become less impressive in the jackpot zone. More uniform snowfall. SWFE have 6-10" totals, not 10-15".

00z GFS. More uniform precip shield. Sharper jackpot zone for QPF queens.

Haven’t paid a ton of attention to down south, but been casually following this one up here. The QPF has been lower but lately the synoptic features have resolved in a very favorable manner. 500mb and 700mb lows go overhead. Should create some lift.

You have been good luck.

It's crazy how slow this evening has been ahead of a region-wide event. We start discussing stuff so far out, that hours before the event arrives we are tired of it.

I'm still curious if we get better ratios in NNE given the slightly further south projection of the sleet line and heaviest snowfall. The lift is pretty high up there, in the 600-700mb level. This has mid-level lift band written all over it at BTV. It could translate through a decent west-to-east axis. Meso-band potential of short duration. Here's ORH too...

Bumped up QPF to the north... good mid-level signals up north as the H5 and H7 vorts track just under here with the northern side of the circulation right overhead. Mesoband from west to east from SLK to BML?

I agree... QPF has been bouncing around but fairly consistent in a widespread 0.50"/half inch of water, with some spots possibly seeing 0.75-1.00" south of here (Monroe Skyline to Killington?). The lower amounts of 0.30-0.50" are off-set by the higher numbers so I do like a good half inch of water. Highest snowfall IMO will be associated with mid-level banding and dendritic snow growth. Sand, or denser snowflakes could lead to just 3-4" of snow (8:1) north of I89, but if flake size/loft is decent (12-20:1) that same amount could be 6-10".

A snowstorm coming statewide and for New England ski country as a whole region.... on the Friday, heading into a weekend, during the back half of the President's Weekend holiday week. This is going to be a monster weekend for the Vermont economy. New Hampshire and Maine too of course. Skiing is popular this season, lack of good snow or snowfall also causes everyone to want to ski on the same days. In this case, many have weekend lodging and are just heading up early to fill the few vacancies left this week. I've always felt that lower snowfall winters lead to higher buzz about each specific snowfall... but when it's snowing regularly, with consistent light snows and a few bigger ones, the hype/buzz/visitation gets diluted a bit everywhere. Folks assume there will just be another one in a few days or within the week.

It absolutely affected it. We've had the Toll House area closed since the warm day before the last rainfall and although it's relatively lower elevation 1,300ft - 2,200ft and all natural snowfall (no snowmaking), it's very rare to not be able to operate that in N.VT in mid/late February. It has a big impact too on those who stay in condos, townhomes, lodging etc down off those runs and there's no way to get folks up except the the road (which at two-lanes is stressed as it is when thousands of people want to go the same direction at the same time). I think the snowpack made it a very easy decision and they probably weren't *that* stretched for staff. Without sufficient snow cover to execute a lift evac or get snowcats, snowmobiles, personnel in there... that thing is long. No one wants to be in a "walking/hiking" situation with paying guests if that lift goes down. And mechanical freak things happen that stop lifts from running. A bolt breaks, leading to a sheave listing vertical, causing alignment issues. Can be fixed pretty easily but the lift may not be able to run again until it's unloaded. Lift evac happens. Short handed for a remote lift evac sounds like the absolute last thing anyone wants to do. If there was even a chance I didn't have enough staff to run a lift like that in low snow, it would sway me to a nope very easily. Maybe at some point the snowpack is marginal BUT you are staffed strongly, and know you can have a strong response in the event of an issue (the amount of resources you have to throw at a potential problem, the more lenient one might become in operations)... to a point obviously.

I doubt it’ll be much different. These are usually pretty uniform. Not like GYX showing 8” at BML would be that much different than their forecast for you I bet. Edit… should’ve read a few posts after this, sounds like that’s what you are thinking, very similar to BML.

Who’s ready for some leaf blower on concrete up north? Ha.

Who knows, Sugarbush hasn’t even hit 100” yet at the top of the mountain. Meanwhile BTV isn’t that far from normal snowfall. It’s interesting you aren’t that far from normal snowfall as upslope has been missing so much this winter but that’s your climo too. How’s your liquid stats? It’s felt real dry this winter on the whole to me. That’s where the mountains suffer.

Yeah it’s funny how the lows are all at like 30-32” and then ‘61 is 15” below that. That’s the difference between getting snow tomorrow vs rain. The stats can endure a lot, but it takes something special to be #1.

Since 1955, there have only been 5 years with the same or lower snow depth at the fabled Mansfield Stake than this year. Current depth… 32” 1957… 32” 1983… 31” 2016… 30” 1980… 30” 1961… 15” Something interesting is the clustering… 1957 and 1961 (4 years apart)… 1980 and 1983 (3 years apart)… and 2016 and 2022 (6 years apart). Poor snowpack seems to run in close clusters.

The craziest thing is how varied our winters are. Can go all-time low of 2015-16, to one of the largest snow depth days season on record in 2018-19 with monster snowpack, back to this winter. We can go huge or small, multiple times in a 6 year period .

The back to back rainers did it. It was tracking below normal, but ok. The last 7 days have really hurt. Closing in on 2015-16 levels. However snow depth days would be so much better this year than that winter when there was 0” at the Stake on Xmas.

I’ve started believing in a 500-600mb fronto-band from west to east across C/N NE. Western shore of Lake Ontario into north/west NE, or cutting through C.NE? Tough to say if someone fluffs themselves to some decent total. But QPF progs are fairly uniform.

It’s been two high-end FROPAs. I don’t remember back to back thaws/cutters mixed with such severe temperature changes. I’m sure it’s happened before but within a week is hard to do. 40+ degree temp drops.

Today was noteworthy. It was in the 50s early this morning, in both town and on the mountain. Temperatures started dropping, but it wasn't until the true cold front moved through that temperatures plummeted to more normal levels for February in NNE. A couple photos from the boundary slinking south, which seemed to have connections back to Lake Ontario. Even at the valley ASOS/MVL there was a decent couple hour period of snow reported with the temperature drop. Down to 13F as of an hour ago off mid-50s in the morning.