powderfreak

Today was noteworthy. It was in the 50s early this morning, in both town and on the mountain. Temperatures started dropping, but it wasn't until the true cold front moved through that temperatures plummeted to more normal levels for February in NNE. A couple photos from the boundary slinking south, which seemed to have connections back to Lake Ontario. Even at the valley ASOS/MVL there was a decent couple hour period of snow reported with the temperature drop. Down to 13F as of an hour ago off mid-50s in the morning.

There is some strong lift in the 500-600mb range and sometimes we do get those fluffy mid-level bands well north that drop 20:1 ratio snows. It just seems like widespread 8-12” on the maps for this area over to you seems optimistic. I rarely disagree with the NWS but here I sell a middle ground of 10”. I like 4-8” and even that is assuming good ratios as all non-NAM models are like 0.30-0.50” from me to your area. If that’s 8-10:1 sand instead of fluff, it’s a bust. There are a lot of people thinking 10-12” is coming up here which makes me uneasy, ha. Because if we get 5” they’ll be wondering what the hell happened, when in fact it looks like that’s been a decent chance the whole time.

I still can’t believe BTV has 10” here for this one. 18z EURO is even more paltry. Gonna need some healthy ratios on some of these runs.

2” and pounding at 1500ft. Might pull a 3-4 spot.

Around 2”/hr rates. Wow it’s cranking.

Absolutely nuking dendrites. Everything white again. Short duration 1”/hr band moving through.

lol it was just the best graphic for it. The GFS wasn't much different. DGZ on the lower end up the best omega in the mid-levels.

Looks like the lift is way up there... like 400-600mb at MPV.

Probably will see that pic regardless of if it's 2-3" or 7-9" .

I think it is there in the QPF maps.... just not as pronounced. If it's fluffing definitely signs of a rotting band from like 'Dacks through MPV over to LEW. But I bet the band might be even a bit north to BTV-MVL-BML.

If we get those amounts it won’t be wet, it’ll be because of ratios.

Surprisingly have both Gondola and Quad going today. West wind staying just high enough over top. Slamming Spruce though. Full on torch though. Dews were near 50F and breaks of sunshine! Feels like it might be trying to dry out a bit.

I'm outside at the ski area in a t-shirt right now, birds chirping... thinking about days of sunlight until 9pm and hiking with the dog . Ice rink up here looks like we should stock it with trout or something.

Big difference even yesterday from some of the larger wide open exposed fields and more sheltered calm locations. Noticed you can drive by bare fields and then a more woodsy residential area has solid cover everywhere. The larger wind-exposed fields are toasted. I mean, at this point it looks so rough and melted anyway. My yard had standing water on top of the shallow few inches of snowpack left.

Widespread 50s this morning.

Yeah very well laid out and these tend to bump north. Just sometimes in SWFE we also end up with sand falling. I guess maybe could see 0.50" water and 18:1 ratios. Of course it could also continue trending north a bit and we end up more water and lower ratios.

Seems aggressive given data through 12z. No ensembles or models I can see showing widespread 7-10”… then the 18z NAM came out.

Wait what?! Lol.

Expecting some Swiss cheese snowpack by morning in the valley. Just about 6” of total granular water-logged pack. Feels like it has to be 3” of water, like 50% and ripe. You walk on top of it for the most part.

I had to look it up for more clarity... makes sense. Sounds like me when the Red Sox starter is doing well and we start playing bullpen roulette in the 5th inning. "Going on tilt" is when a player becomes enraged about something and starts making ill-advised plays based purely on emotion.

I mean the deep interior gets sick of coastal lows but when areas like 25 miles from waters edge are tired of coastals…

New 12z EURO has this area over to phin/alex and then to dryslot as very much on the "line" for Friday.

51F at SLK at 1,600ft seems like the warm spot right now. Impressive for that spot in February.

Not an ideal headline map. Maybe some freezing drizzle/rain, followed by rising waterways. Cold air this evening funneling down the Champlain Valley.

It isn't ideal, ha. I've got just 5-6" too, with areas under evergreens starting to show grass blades along the Rec Path. The spots where all the snow gets hung up in the trees. Snow seems water-logged after today's above freezing temps. It's ready to melt when it starts raining. I saw J.Spin was still sporting 11" this morning, the Spine axis gets the precip around here. Up by the mountain it's so varied that there are south facing areas going bare and northeast facing spots with a few feet of depth. I'm sure it's just as variable over there.