powderfreak

TLDR - It's sort of comparing apples to oranges depending on the snow reporting method. Old school ranges or single site snow cam or plots. Ski Areas around the region are sort of a mixture of both methods.

I know this is a sensitive subject and what I'm about to say is not accusing anyone of misleading or trying to be higher or market snowfall more. Smuggs has moved to a more controlled snow measurement with a branded measuring spot I've seen posted a few times. I think that's what you are seeing there. To me, Bolton stands out much more than Smuggs on that list. Did Bolton get almost 100 more inches than MRG this winter? Really think about that for a second. That's 8 more feet of snow, the snow depths must've really reflected that too? I have personally seen it happen at Stowe and truly believe it to be the case, that if you are doing the old school estimating snowfall version of Snow Reporting (just skiing around, finding a general 8 - 10 inches depending on where you are, and then always adding the higher value to the season total) you will have a noticeably larger season total over time. It isn't wrong per se, and skiers/riders won't find it off because they are skiing sometimes in 7-8 inches and sometimes they find some turns with 10 inches of new snow. But you are taking the deepest amount found in any storm and adding it up over time... and those deepest places aren't always in the same spot though depending on wind direction. Look at the ski areas that have gone to a more controlled measuring... Sugarbush has their stakes and cams, so does MRG. Smuggs looks to have pivoted to that direction from what I noticed the past couple seasons. We've gone that way at Stowe too. The two locations I have yet to see a consistent measuring site or some sort visual proof of like a plot or spot are Bolton and Jay. Again, this doesn't mean they are fibbing or making things up, but just going about it the old school way. But you'll see their numbers stay in-line with the old school numbers, which are a bit higher. An example is for those who have ever worked in Operations, say you call Ski Patrol to ask how much snow has fallen? You are going to get a range as an answer every single time. Just like if you asked any skier or rider. How much snow was there? Oh there was 6 - 8 inches out there on the hill. Sounds good. And it's usually correct that the snowfall will be in that range as one skis around a mountain. However, what if you only measured from one specific location or two specific locations? All the sudden the place you chose to represent snowfall shows 6.5". Now you are deciding to report 6, maybe 7 if you want to push it, but not 8 that the old school method would be. Take Bolton... when J.Spin goes up there he usually finds the reported snowfall in his wanderings around. But I'd be curious what that snowfall might look like if he went to the same exact location every single time. Maybe he finds only 7" at the designated spot because the storm came with a strong east wind, but skis around in the woods on his tour at some other aspect and finds 9" or 10". Old style would say there was 7-10" of new snow (maybe even 6 - 10 inches), but now the 7 would get recorded in the annual tally not 10. There is a subtle difference that adds up over time when talking about dozens and dozens of snowfall reports over a season. The larger the snowfall range I see from a ski area, the more likely I know they are going old school and estimating. Unless it is a highly marginal elevational storm with slop and pow up high, 6-10" on a snow report is a forecast, not a snowfall measurement. If I see "24 Hour New Snow: 8 - 14 " that's just tossing numbers out there in a windy snowstorm. Synoptic events and even upslope won't give anywhere near that range even at elevation. Synoptic events I've noticed are often very close between elevations and summits. The lift is occurring in the mid-levels. There's no reason for a large range of more than an inch or two. But occasionally we see these big ranges on snow reports, but that's the old school snow reporting method. No one will convince me otherwise, but there is a total snowfall difference annually between the old school estimated range method and any mountain that goes to a singular specific location that shows just one number and one number only with no adjustments. I believe we are seeing it happen with Smuggs now too, corrects downward. Old school snow report ranges of snowfall does capture a mountain's snowfall well in each specific event in my opinion, but will lead to compounding overtime as it is always taking the deeper value and adding it onto itself. As opposed to taking one number from the same exact location or two locations all season, regardless of wind direction, nuances, etc and adding that up.

It’s really nice out. 24F to 57F already before 11am.

Those days where it’s -20F in the mountain valleys up here in the morning and raining at 34F by dinner, lol. Those are the memorable ones.

lol, radiators mount up I guess. 24F at the neighbor’s station here near the river and country club, but 36F up the hill. Valley bottom a good 10F colder than even a couple hundred feet up.

Looking back on yesterday's closing day, this was my social post about the awesome day the local crew had. This large assembled crew is the heartbeat of the Mansfield ski/ride community... "Through all the powder days, rain storms, hurricane force wind gusts, sunny days, soft snow days, frozen granular days and everything else, today might have been one of the most memorable of the season (well, aside from that cosmic event). The end of the season is always bittersweet. On one hand, for myself and mountain colleagues, it’s liberating to take a break after 156 days of operations. On the other hand I always know I’ll miss the Stowe Family, the stoke and the Mansfield ski & ride culture over the summer. Despite greybird skies and chilly weather, the Stowe Family showed up in force today to celebrate another season of sliding on snow. That culminated with the grassroots 4th Annual Human Slalom. This was incredible and is getting penciled into Stowe closing day lore and tradition already. There are too many people to tag in these photos but hats off to Matt Testa aka Matty Mansfield for leading this grassroots charge and organizing the massive human slalom down Nosedive, after everyone grabbed some gnar points with some pole whacks on the Nosedive turns. Between the organic gatherings like the largest human slalom, the Quad top dance party, and the last chair gathering on the Octagon deck to celebrate the season, the vibes were high out there. Today proved the ski & ride culture is strong on Mount Mansfield and every single one of us plays a role in that. I feel lucky to be a part of it and to document it throughout the winter season. Thanks to all who contribute to the vibe, this community is awesome. My heart and soul are full today."

Would be nice, a week out.

The 1pm ob at MVL was 40/9. Up to 45F now but I’m going to say in the sun it does feel warmer than that. Hoodie while active is plenty warm enough right now. This in November would feel frigid. Weird how the body changes throughout the year.

Further supporting the case for average snowfall is the snow depths on hill at elevation were about as normal as it gets in the means. One thing that stands out that skiers noticed this year is the thaws. After each big snow and snowpack gain, it was almost immediately knocked back by a rain event. Even with 100” after March 1st, we had two big gains and the first one was wiped out almost immediately by rain and warmth. Without that, the snowpack would’ve gotten over 100” easily between the mid-March cycle and early April storms. March’s 70” and April’s 31” saved the season. March saw that 50” snowpack gain from 40” to 90”, which was super impressive and saved the season.

Yeah, didn’t they say their record was 2016-17 winter? Thats also our largest since at least 2007-08…. We measured 375” in 2016-17 at the High Road plot. I’ll try to post the last 10 years later but this winter was solidly above at least the last 3-4 seasons. We were in a rut of like 220-240” seasons but 289” is more to what I believe average is, if not ever so slightly above. My gut says over time High Road comes in around 275-280” average with a range of like 220”-350” as the most likely “bin.” Could get a 2015-16 winter of 156” or a 2000-01 of like 430” on the extremes.

I think they have a pretty slick operation and the state has poured a bunch of money into it. They had a decent expansion I think in the last decade or that might have been Gore? Overall I think it’s just its location relative to population centers and while gnarly and good steep terrain, it’s just not enough to get folks to bypass all the other ski areas to get to Whiteface.

Was this a real question if temps are 32F or lower?

Stowe closed today. For those interested, here is the measured snowfall at 3,000ft. The 4,000 foot elevations certainly had over 300 inches but we measure at a more useful elevation instead of the absolute maximum. Every inch of this was measured/observed and not estimated. This is what actually fell in a consistent and controlled environment on Mount Mansfield at the upper mid-slope elevation. November - 35 inches December - 34 inches January - 77 inches February - 42 inches March - 70 inches April - 31 inches Season Total - 289 inches

It is a big, steep, classic East Coast mountain. It's up there in the top 5 on "big mountain terrain and vertical" in the East, IMO. What keeps Whiteface from being huge is it's location relative to the populations... there is no easy way to get there except from I-87 in NY. To get to Whiteface, probably 99% of the East Coast skiing population needs to drive past other "big deal" mountains. If you are coming from SNE, you are looking at VT/NH/ME and would have to make a real conscious effort to head to Whiteface. If Whiteface is located in a different geographic area, it would be a lot more prominent. Thinking about skier behavior, Whiteface has the vertical and rugged look to be a high-end player, plus it has Lake Placid right there as a fabled tourism town. However, what it doesn't have is snowfall and it is often very cold and windy. Whiteface does not get the snowfall or consistent snowfall that other northern areas like the northern Greens, Presidentials, and Maine get. Occasionally Whiteface gets a win on a big hugging coastal storm or inland runner. Maybe a rouge lake effect band off of Lake Ontario. But SE synopic flow likes to favor Gore and the southern Adirondacks. Northwest flow favors spots NW of Whiteface. Northeast flow seems to be the best but to get into deep moisture and mid-level lift on NE flow at Whiteface requires a well placed synoptic storm. I think about why people drive past other ski areas to go to a spot much further away... say Jay Peak. Or Sugarloaf. People do it because of big snowfalls. The northern Greens get dumped on the most on average, so people will travel from the population centers to them. Sunday River and Sugarloaf will develop big snowpacks and get the well-advertised nor'easters. It is harder to find people who will opt to head to the northern Adirondacks over many of these other areas. The market in Albany to Plattsburgh and around the Adirondack Park area is just smaller.

Flurries and light snow off and on today at the mountain. Even making it into town with dry low levels. Had 1” last night at the mountain, lol.

I guess I look at it differently. Not trying to join the temperature “battle” that seems to go on, but suppose this is inserting myself in the middle, ha. We just recently in the past few years saw our normals correct higher with the new 30-year-normals… the departures would’ve been even higher less than 5 years ago. We can’t lose sight of the trend line and call moderately above normal as a reason to say it’s “cool” IMO. Something happens this time of year on the forum where if it’s not record warmth, 70s and 80s, it’s not warm. But in recent months we term it a “warm winter” if temps are above freezing in the means. Those temps are still “cool.” Shouldn’t we think of “cool” and “warm” as a function of normal year round?

Isn’t that a slightly above average mean there?

Looks like BTV is equal parts warm for max and mins (both 3.5-4F above normal) so not a total nighttime driven month. It’s just if your monthly mean temp is in the 40s… the difference between 43F and 47F for a mean isn’t really noticeable to most people. Same with say 46F and 50F, despite a solidly AN month. Its still “warm” relative to normal but no one notices.

It’s also about expectation. We are supposed to be 54/31 today. A “warm” April isn’t opening pools up. We’ve seemed to switch to warm season SOP on the forum where it isn’t warm unless it’s shorts and T-shirt weather. Beginning of the month say is 45/23 up this way… +7 for a high of 52F is going to be “cool” if one expects summer or it’s going to be warm if one expects snow. Positive/warm departures still can feel cool I guess is what I’m saying depending on what you are expecting.

+4.7 up here for April. Definitely a warm month with +3 to +5 though it feels cool because it wasn’t +8 to +10 .

Nothing like an icing event on the mountain when we want spring skiing.

Miserable day up here. 29F at the top of the Quad with solid freezing rain. 33F mid-mountain and rain. 36F in the base area and rain.

54F up here at MVL for max but with mostly sunny skies it felt pretty nice. Sunshine this time of year makes a huge difference.

2012 to me was incredibly early. We then had a major snow at the end of April 2010 with green leaves out… I had 12” at 300ft where I lived in Richmond, VT next to the Winooski River. 1,000ft+ had 18-24”, 3,000ft had 30”. The early leaf out then snow and cold messed up the vegetation. I don’t know if I remember 2010 being noteworthy early. I’ll have to look back into photos.

Still finding areas of WTF from the flash flood the other night. Looking at acres of woods right now just scoured by river water and mud, a long way from the river bed. I guess this is how water ends up in Alex’s backyard. Wish this happened during daylight, would’ve been wild to see.