powderfreak

00 HRRR holds serve.

Is that near Clarksville? My wife’s friend here in Stowe is distraught as her family’s house just got leveled within the past hour. They had about 60 seconds to get into the storm shelter from the time of the sirens. There’s a young baby only a couple months old there and they have nothing left.

Yeah for sure, I guess that’s why I keep saying it as QPF falling as snow. Not jackpot actual snowfall on ground or anything. In a big coastal, it’ll still show you were the most QPF will fall as snow. It’s up to you to figure out the ratios. And ratios drive the deformation bands. Not QPF. That’s on the user to adjust the ratio to QPF. Its a very crude tool. Like when I see a snow map, the second image is what I see.

Ha, yeah I guess my point was do most here look at a snow map and expect that amount? I certainly don’t. I like to post them because it’s showing the most likely spot to get the most QPF to fall as snow. That’s it. 3km NAM shows 15” I’m think cool, 1.50” QPF falling as wet snow. Maybe we can grab 8-9” of actual accumulating snow.

Yeah I guess what I’m saying is it’s the amount of QPF the model thinks will fall as snow. That’s it. It just moves the decimal point. The 4-panel P-Type maps are the same thing often for precip as snow. Like if it shows 9.6” of snow, it just means 0.96” QPF is expected to fall from the sky in the form of a frozen crystal. Whether it sticks, accumulates, etc or not is up to you. You decide what to do with that information from there. Edit: Yes we are saying the same things. I just see a snow map and think in those terms… not that those inches will be on my yard when it’s done.

You should compare the SWE of any precip falling as snow… does anyone think 10:1 on a warm wet ground when it flips? But could get 0.20” QPF as -SN at 34.5F that is a slushy 0.25” accum. That’s what a 2.0” snow map is saying. All the snow maps tell us is how much QPF as snow p-type, which is what I see when I look at them. Do you guys look at it as accumulations?

Still always waiting for the other shoe to drop but fingers crossed looks good for the Greens. Things have been breaking right lately… could be 3rd straight Monday with 10” or more falling at the ski area.

Crushed on 3km NAM.

Ticked west and stronger. Razor line.

Booo. That makes sense in the larger trend though.

Reggie is a big hit too at 18z. 3km NAM looks like it would be massive too, so much QPF riding up the front.

BTV not holding back. Including the cities of Fort Covington, Malone, South Colton, Star Lake, Saranac Lake, Tupper Lake, Dannemora, Ellenburg, Lake Placid, Newcomb, Derby, Newport, Island Pond, Lunenburg, Johnson, Stowe, Hardwick, St. Johnsbury, Montpelier, Waitsfield, Bradford, Randolph, Enosburg Falls, Richford, Richmond, Underhill, Bristol, Ripton, East Wallingford, and Killington 234 PM EST Fri Dec 8 2023 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING... * WHAT...Heavy wet snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 5 to 10 inches, with localized 12 to 18 inches possible across the central and northern Green Mountains of Vermont.

There’s a proclivity on this forum to rush seasons, with no patience for the shoulder seasons. This desire for 90s and torches from May to October and then deep winter during the rest of the year leads to some interesting posting. No matter how many times people are told March is snowier, they want deep winter by 11/15. To be fair the desire is more to match the solar cycle while climo lag is what reality is.

No complaints at all up this way. It’s only December 8 and we’ve had several fun events from a weather/snow perspective.

This forum will detonate if there’s an all-rain coastal storm within a week of Xmas .

Yeah get one more upper level shuffle like that and it’s into western SNE for good snows.

Upper levels showed that coming… phase was later but still got there. 500mb and 700mb looked good here. Snow maps agree.

Here we go.

12z NAM further east with 700mb and 500mb. Might work up here.

Once the wind goes NW in low levels there will be an orographic assist but the key is the trough going negative tilt. Slows it down and develops a bit more of a tug on the CAA. My gut says heaviest synoptic ends up over the Adirondacks and the Greens are more upslope driven later in the system. But the GFS solution is worth watching. Sometimes these lows developing along a gradient can dump big snow and fast for someone… like 14” in 8 hours type deal. We had that in March 2011… 1”+ of rain followed by 24” snow (over 3” total QPF) while ORH was 50F in the warm sector. Somewhere there should be a big gradient though when talking about these QPF amounts of 2-3.50”.

6z was even more ridiculous lol.

25F SLK, 20 MVL, 1 BML. WAA hitting western NNE while eastern NNE is clear, wedged, and radiating.

Snowstorms of the past and trying to sell a damaging south wind event at 850mb as exciting. The forum is cooking.

I say it every year but Christmas Day 2002 in the Albany area is absolutely unmatched. I knew at the time, this was something that would never happen again in my life, no matter where I lived. I remember measuring just shy of two feet late on Christmas Day. It didn’t start snowing until that morning. And it went absolutely bonkers ALB recording 1.79” QPF and 19.2” of snow during 12/25 calendar day. That’s the best Christmas Day snow event one can run into. SXUS99 KALB 261155 RERALB RECORD EVENT REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY 655 AM EST THU DEC 26 2002 ...NEW ALL-TIME RECORD CHRISTMAS SNOWFALL AND PRECIPITATION... AT 1159 PM CHRISTMAS DAY 2002...THE OFFICIAL TOTAL SNOWFALL FOR THE DAY AT ALBANY WAS 19.2 INCHES. THIS ECLIPSED THE PREVIOUS CHRISTMAS RECORD OF 11.8 INCHES SET BACK IN 1978. THE PRECIPITATION AT ALBANY FOR CHRISTMAS DAY 2002 ALSO SET A NEW RECORD FOR THE DAY...WITH A TOTAL OF 1.79 INCHES. THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS 1.12 INCHES...ALSO SET IN 1978. ALL OF THE PRECIPITATION FELL IN THE FORM OF SNOW... JUST AS WITH THE PREVIOUS RECORD BACK IN 1978. AFTER MIDNIGHT AN ADDITIONAL 1.8 INCHES OF SNOW FELL. AS OF 645 AM EST THURSDAY THE STORM TOTAL WAS 21.0 INCHES. THIS EVENT GOES DOWN AS BEING ALBANY'S 4TH GREATEST DECEMBER SNOWSTORM SINCE THE BEGINNING OF RECORDS IN 1885...AND IT IS THE 9TH GREATEST SNOWSTORM OVERALL. TOTAL WATER EQUIVALENT FOR THE STORM STOOD AT 1.91 INCHES. $$ ELH/GG

Did you really think George had an agenda when he posted that? Both can be correct. It’s getting warmer and snowfall chances can be remaining relatively flat. Singular events are very possible and reasonably unchanged. A slight warming trend can be quite good along the boundary/margins. Snow and temps can be different discussions. This is a weather forum, sometimes folks read way too much into statements made on the fly by someone.