powderfreak

Yeah I’m with ya. Some folks are going to get disappointed tomorrow but most seem to understand the ski areas want to run the lifts for customers. If they can they will and if they say they can’t, it’s not due to laziness . Let it dump and blow all tomorrow then enjoy it Tuesday.

The wind is going to be a problem tomorrow. Snows falling sideways up at Stowe. And the flow isn’t even that strong. It really ramps up tomorrow.

Yeah upslope phase taking over.

This looks promising for upslope.

Yeah that was about how I thought it would go in town. Theres a lot of branches down. Just pouring low ratio snow all night.

4” birch bender at home. 8” at office and 8” at 3,000ft. Thinking the mountain will more than double that by tomorrow afternoon. Another foot of upslope seems likely.

4” and trees down, power out. Just absolute slop. 8” at 1500ft. 34F

The east side of the Spine is getting the QPF during this first part of the system. SSE flow currently. Then NNW flow starting later tomorrow. The NW flow will move the radar echoes to the west side.

If only the HRRR has a clue. The positive snow depth map is decent. And shows the impact of melting in the boundary layer compared with the 10:1 maps. 00z HRR difference between snow depth increase and a generic 10:1 snow map. The depth increase is usually a bit closer to reality.

Always remember I spent the first 50% of my life in the ALB area along the Hudson River. Thats a brutal area for snow. I just have respect for the local climo and how it differs from points south.

Wasn’t this expected? Why take them up? This first burst is 4-8” with spot 10” amounts above 1000-2000ft for the Green Mountais. I’m not trying to be a dink, just trying to see what I am missing that might make this go over guidance.

Yeah, not sure why it’s a bad take that the valley won’t get 9”. The data has been very stable in showing how this works out. Biggest gradient from 500-1500ft.

Maybe two-tenths so far? Why is it a bad take? Its an elevation event above 1K as expected?

Yeah I mean, anything can happen and maybe all lifts open/run… but NW wind is our stock strong & gusty direction. The FourRunner and Gondola get pretty exposed to that wind at the Haychute and over the Waterfall (respectively). Then add in upslope snowfall limiting visibility, especially with gusty winds blowing snow sideways, and if you can’t get good eyes on the lift it’s another reason to put it on wild hold. If there is any doubt due to wind speeds and you can’t visually see the line or even just in front of the terminals, lifts sit still.

Dude that’s amazing. 100 days is the legendary mark.

Zero chance Stowe Village gets 9” but I know it’s hard fine tuning the elevational gradients.

I think we will have widespread wind issues Monday here.

Light snow has begun.

The positive snow depth maps are the way to go here to visually see the valleys vs mtns. HRRR 10:1 showing 1.50”+ QPF as snow. But depth increase of only 5” tells me it’s full on glop at MVL and under 1,000ft. While the mountains stay 12-24” depth increase. 3KM NAM does the same.

This is a 1,500-2,000ft event for big totals. The QPF is there. If this winter had even been +2 to +4 (instead of +8 to +10), it might have been an incredibly snowy winter up north. There have been so many events that have been a couple degrees away from big numbers. 00z GFS if only we had a cold airmass and 10:1 ratios to the valley floors. Disappointing winter. This is what could have been.

Elevation event coming in based on positive slow depth maps. They are the new snow maps.

Southeast Adirondacks getting the upslope cooling from forced parcel ascent in the marginal & lowest few thousand vertical feet. Same with eastern VT hills and Spine during the SE flow phase. It’s like the tide coming in on SE flow, then the tide going out on NW flow. Some zones do better on each specific flow/tide, others can hit on both. Thats the forecasting challenge.

That’s generally what it feels like, mid-April. Snowpack is like it is a couple weeks before closing… not 5 weeks. All we need is some good frozen QPF and normal temperatures and things will last. But can’t keep running back +10 departures. We are +14.1 through the first week of the month. It’s just wild departures continuing since the end of November.

This will be more like grits on a biscuit.

When did that start coming out so early?