powderfreak

lol we are running just shy of +4 up here at all three BTV/MVL/MPV and people are like “it’s been a cool May”… If we get a legit -3 type month (any month of the year) people will think the world is ending. Its comical how far people’s tolerances or impressions of normal temperatures have strayed.

I was thinking about that… it seems like just the same air mass at 850mb as we had all winter, ha. Even out through tomorrow… +2 to -2C at 850mb was basically winter this year, but just with the May sun angle now as you said.

Another February morning.

Friend’s cell phone shots from Waterbury, VT.

Not even close up here. We can’t get a month even near normal. It’s worth noting that the past 6 months of ridiculous temperature departures are based off the most recent normals, which were stepwise warmer than the old normals. So these departures would be solidly higher than they have been if compared against the past 30-year dataset we knew in the 2010s. This first 30% of May… BTV… +5.1 MVL… +5.0 MPV… +4.9 Yet another month in progress that will be a torch. Champlain Valley to interior sites east of the Spine. Radiator or not. Doesn’t matter. It’s +5 through the first third of May. Not even close to normal or below. +8 to +10 over winter months has mellowed to +5. A true below normal pattern would make folks think an ice age is coming.

Shut ‘em down, ha. This evening at 5pm I found myself on Spruce Peak with the dog. Looking over at the fabled Nosedive. Nosedive is holding in there for 1,300 vertical feel, but the lower 700 feet (out of view) becomes a problem. Especially the lower 400 feet. It’s crazy that snow is only made on this trail for like a 4-day period during the winter. Just a single snowmaking run during a midweek period to build the base. I’ve always wondered how this trail would be with the Superstar treatment. It would last a long time. You think the natural snowpack is getting to 7-8 feet, add in multiple weeks of snowmaking and this top 1,300 verts would make it to June every year.

To be honest looking at models should be rewarded on some level over using imagination or making up the weather you want too. It’s a fine line.

Yeah I remember some model guidance posted, but DIT is on a heater of a smear campaign of NWS lately . In general though if you follow these rules regardless of the pattern you’re odds are better than 50-50: Winter… Warm. Spring… Warm. Summer… Warm. Fall… Warm.

Turned into a surprisingly nice afternoon here.

He’s around, we chatted about some of those storms off forum.

What a vibe there. Fresh.

My folks are in Woodstock and said they had large hail earlier. Of course that was as much detail as I could get out of them, ha.

Really nice booms coming from just to the north. Sounds like summer, ha.

The first true sunny day with hills of neon light green canopy, it does rival fall foliage. Just vibrant shades of fresh green.

Yeah I’d say that sounds about right for 1500ft. Last piles of snow just melted from those elevations not long ago. Not going to go from patchy snow to leaves in two weeks time. Down here in the valley we get the warm afternoons to heat the soil.

Seen a decent advance the past two days here. Still mainly sticks but buds are starting to open and can tell we are a couple more warm days away from an explosion of green. Seems like it’s all going to go at once.

68/37 currently. Top 10 day. Might have tickled 70F but either way, seems like every person is out doors right now.

I mean sensibly yeah, 53F or 48F. Doesn’t really matter at all. A max in the 50s vs the 40s isn’t a spring celebration.

Just looking, seems GFS and NAM are 40s there for you on Friday, but GGEM is 50s and 6z ECM was low 50s. I'd tend to lean on the warmer side of guidance as it doesn't take much for a max temp to sneak up into the 50s this time of year. It would take some work to truly stay in the 40s, even there at 1,000ft.

That map is for Friday though (00z Sat is 8pm Friday). Not trying to enter the debate, just pointing that out.

I'd imagine it has to do with preparing people and they'd rather bust that way than make it seem like "eh, meh" and have a bunch of significant TOR events destroying cities or towns? Wouldn't severe weather out there be one of the weather types that you'd probably lean on the stronger end of wording compared to the overall set-up for public awareness?

Frosted car tops at sunup and shorts and T-shirts by the time the work day starts?

Jeez, we got down to 36F at like 5:30am. Its already 60F at 9:15am.

But they weren't, so its all null and void like it never happened ha. Just another playoff series win in the books.

I still hate dews and excessive heat, doubt you'll ever win me over on that. It's mostly dews I dislike, dry 90F is usually fun. I love the perfect outdoor weather though... those deep blue skies, 70s with long daylight. Big fan of late spring and early summer before the dews come. Honestly, this time of year may be my favorite of the year. No bugs, no mosquitoes yet, long daylight, warm afternoons, comfortable sleeping weather with no A/C. Intermountain western US would be perfect for me. Nights in the 40s, days in the 80s all summer long at the ski towns with morning sun and afternoon scattered storms every single day for three months.