powderfreak

Yeah looked like an inverted trough situation across some parts… stretching from NW to SE and moving very slowly to almost stationary. Given the snow growth and cold temps, every bit of extra QPF was amplified. Thats a respectable event with 13”!

7.5” here in the village. Zero complaints when it looked like we might miss completely a few days ago. A half inch topping the past two hours. We’ll see if upslope snow showers can deliver another half inch to give us eight. The mountain had 8” at 4pm… looks like at least another two of high ratio fluff since then up high. The second half of this has had very little QPF. The WAA in the beginning did have a little water with it. Nice region-wide snower for the forum. From the Champlain Valley in the NW to the coast in the SE. East-west, north-south. Everyone snowed.

Damn. You got your jackpot finally. Congrats.

They are right on the water… Atlantic is like 150 feet away. Pretty crazy but looked crushed, photos seemed legit. Said inland even a couple miles had decently less.

Friend photos of Cape Neddick, ME… no idea if the measurement is legit but passing it along. Looks like at least 15” anyway.

Damn, that’s a nice stack.

We winter.

8” at the ski area.

BTV ripping out M1/4 on auto obs and 2” per hour. Manned obs showing 1/8sm visibility. KBTV 071754Z 12008KT 1/8SM R15/2200V2600FT +SN FZFG VV007 M03/M04 A2969 RMK AO2 SLP060 SNINCR 2/6 4/006 P0010 60030 T10281044 11022 21039 58014 METAR KBTV 071750Z AUTO 12007KT M1/4SM +SN FZFG VV006 M03/M04 A2969 RMK P0010 KBTV 071748Z 12007KT 1/8SM R15/2200V2800FT +SN FZFG VV006 M03/M04 A2969 RMK AO2 VIS 1/8V1/4 P0009

To me the different is the big storms. Bennington seems to be left out more in the big ticket east flow events. But they'll do fine from the west and the lighter events, lake effect streamers, etc.

3” snowing steady 1 sm.

Combine good snow growth with sticky surface temperatures near 30-32F, those flakes link up and become potato chips, trapping air and accumulating rapidly.

Meteorologically, I would think the best QPF would be closer to the best forcing to the N/NW of the SFC low. Not the far ULL stuff into NW NE. Mid-level goodies probably hit CNE somewhere. The HRRR QPF makes sense. The rest is just ratios and snow growth as you go north and west. Maybe 0.40” QPF is 4”, maybe it’s 7”. While maybe some spot way down south sees 0.90” QPF as 7” of paste with some marginal white rain in between.

I’m not gonna lie, people shit on the HRRR all the time but it can be pretty good. It nailed several events for us up here back in Novie and early Dec. If it doesn’t show what we want, it’s a running joke to dismiss it. But it has its moments when consistent.

18z Euro. We hope up north.

Ahh I thought that was round 2… that’s the easterly flow after the overrunning thump. But I see what you are talking about… that weird little QPF streak that looks dubious? I don’t think that QPF in CT is the CCB… just looks odd when looped…. Almost convective. But who knows.

I really don’t see much difference between 19z HRRR you posted and the NAM. Same general areas… HRRR NAM…

What’s the NAM show?

Of what 24 hours?

Snowy Euro run and not done yet.

That’s a great run. GFS and EURO both over 0.70” QPF now up here. Upslope is pretty persistent with -12C 850s… fluffer tomorrow evening and night even.

It’s addicting. Because you envision what could happen so viscerally. Sometimes the actual event is disappointing, but it’s really rooted in expectations. For anyone who hasn’t seen actual snowfall so far this season, getting even 6” of legit (dense), synoptic snow will feel like a blizzard. Even from afar, it’ll be fun to watch unfold. This forum comes into its own when a “nor’easter” moves through.

Yeah good early runs for the SNE crew. That wild north stuff from some of the 12z runs is largely gone. Ya’ll deserve a good one.

Isn’t that temperature not p-type? Poor choice of colors though around that temperature.

It looked the same as the WxBell one? Just different color scales. Widespread 6-8” with a zone of 10”+ ORH to LWM.