powderfreak

I’m not sure it’s the right take, but to me the 47-67” season totals on Long Island are some of the more impressive numbers.

Amen.

Local Cocorahs guy melted down 4.6” to 0.75” water. That sounds about right for this stuff. Just absolute concrete and snowbanks more like a warning criteria event.

Nearly 4” in Stowe of absolute concrete. Snowbanks are surprising for amount of snow. Has to be well over 0.50” QPF. Heavy sleet.

Even the slightest ripple in the flow is causing mixed precip up north. I think the terrain is playing a huge role in p-types up north. Almost wonder if the lower or less severe elevation changes in areas south are not disrupting the marginal mid-level thermals as much? You want to be on the SE facing side of any terrain up north right now.

My father says almost 2” and snowing hard near ALB at only 200ft in the Hudson Valley.

Steady light snow now. Pretty interesting at how marginal it is… the ridge lines around here are showing mixed precipitation on the crests and immediately W/NW. The Worcester Range is causing a pocket of sleet on the east side of Stowe, and the Green Mtn Spine is causing it on the west side. Just the slightest downslope of mid-level air causing sleet.

There it is, the correction vector cutting QPF by a half inch after 4 runs of steady increase at MVL.

Yeah I was just looking through it, those soundings are incredibly marginal around 850mb. I'm just more curious on the QPF... that's what doesn't make sense. But maybe it's over-doing the lift/precip rates, and that's cooling things a bit more than reality will have too. I've got 3-4" for the mountain and some IP/ZR then ending as drizzle/rain showers.

Even at MVL... starting at the 18z run, it's gone like 6", 7", 8.5", 10"+ last four runs. I'm trying to find a nowcast reason why it's going absolutely bonkers, and thats all through like 10am tomorrow. Like 6 hours of 0.10"/hr< QPF.

The HRRR has been on absolute meth lately. It just keeps ramping up every hour. 10:1 isn't happening, but what is this thing doing?

00z snow maps are overdone, and Kuchie brings it decently lower than 10:1. Have to think the mid-level warming comes in faster than projected here in VT. But maybe the interior CNE and NNE crew can thump for a couple hours. 4” soaking up drizzle and -RN would be a nice event. GFS. 3KM NAM looks more realistic. Advisory level event. HRRR very wet along the eastern slope with the SE low level flow under the SW flow WAA aloft.

It’s true, December sets the tone. Been a while since we had a strong December. Even in 2018 that had even glades easily skiable, the snowpack was built in November. Avoiding the December lull makes a big difference in a season. Been a very average start to the season on Mansfield. Depth been following the average. Probably gains 4” of dense depth from the upcoming system, bouncing back on the average trajectory. Average is good these days.

Yeah 15F now here too, off a high of 30F. The shaded coating of snow survived here too. Looks like one expects November too.

Currently 16F off a high of 30F in town.

When I think of November. This season has been what I imagine. Some cold days, a steady seasonable chill, and one true torch out ahead of a trough/cold front. Today’s vibe was what I think of when I imagine the back half of November up here. A skiff of cold snow on the ground (dusting-3” depending on elevation), frosty ridges, low sun angle, cold, and snow guns blasting away at the ski areas. This November has gone about how climate norms would have it. Hopefully normal carries through the winter.

It’s still out there, away from the forecast office and population. The flip side is a NWS Met who goes into detail about a November coating above 1,000ft in interior New England is often labeled a weenie. What happens there is not going to get the same reaction as other areas… that same snow shower might have gotten an SPS if it’s doing that into BOS right now. In the ORH hills above 1kft? The forecasters know there won’t be a public response wondering what happened, ha.

I saw some pics from up in Coventry that looked very wintry… those snow showers were training just south of the border. Jay eastward into the NEK. Not much down south here today except a grass/mulch coating.

You live in the hinterlands now, right? Their focus will not be on weather there. If the ground was whitening along the RT 128 corridor, they’d mention it.

This is pretty damn cool from local met Tyler J.

You’re spot is looking good for best thumping. Even if it rains a little bit at the end… that starts building ground cover with that SWE.

Was out this evening and came home to the ground whitened up and wet roads… so must’ve had a decent squall at some point. Almost looks like it’s a covering of graupel instead of snow.

Squalls moving in from the north at sunset right now.

Conditions are pretty rugged out there today. Feels like Nov 19 in New England. Firm.

lol. Just raging fangs.