powderfreak

Ratios are not going to be close to 10:1, but another elevational paste job seems likely for most of NNE. With the CAD bringing paste to lower els in NH/ME.

WWA up. ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY... * WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 8 inches. Amounts up to 10 inches possible above 1500 ft.

Can see how the low level thermals are so dependent on dynamic cooling/strong lift aloft. If precipitation isn't as heavy or steady, this system probably trends warm in outcome. The precipitation just crushes the freezing/snow level downward toward the surface. KMPV/Montpelier. Been a super wet past two months. About 9" of water equivalent between 10/1 and 12/1. Mother Nature hasn't been afraid to precipitate, regardless of rain or snow.

True in general on models, expect the opposite of exotic. Look for mundane toned down outcomes, like cold rain. Good post, toss exotic excitement to Pluto.

I think that’s why I’m most skeptical though… inverted trough stuff seems more likely to fall apart or move around. As modeled though, the axis is good from like SQC through the NGreens and Whites and Greens… at least for continuing precip once the cold settles in a bit deeper. Looks to start as rain then go over to heavy wet snow. Under 1500ft I’d go with lowish ratios but another 5-8:1 pasting would be a scene.

18z Euro would work but there’s a lot that can go wrong in this set up.

Ahh I was talking more in general about weather models as a whole. On the EURO, in my mind its likely a couple things... I doubt its a worse model but it has lost it's skill over the other models. That gives it a perceived back tracking in skill. The gap has closed and it isn't the far and away best model. The GFS and others likely made stepwise improvements, while the EURO still made small gains but it appears to have gotten worse because it doesn't have the total domination anymore. Now if the GFS and others didn't make any improvements at all, and the gap closed, then the Euro would have had to get worse. Just logically thinking about two things and where they rank relative to each other in performance.

You truly think the NGM, ETA and MRF were better models? Or you thought you knew what to do with them better and didn’t have the information overload of today?

I mean I wasn’t the only one. Didn’t see anyone forecasting those amounts. It’s largely ratio driven for the most part. I mean you get 6 FROPAs over two weeks and 5 of them leave 1-2” and one does a foot. And they all look similar on the models. You only hear about the surprise ones, not the half dozen before that which left an inch.

This times 1000. Models are way better now. Maybe it’s a situation of information overload when 20 years ago or more you’d look at like 3-4 models. Now you can look at dozens of you want to. You’d look at the NGM, ETA and MRF and call it a day as a hobbyist and not see anything past Day 5 lol.

Mountain snow depth went up 11” in the past 24 hours, to 28” settled at 4pm. Thats pretty solid for an unforecast or overlooked event by those of us who follow this stuff daily. Last night saw what -12C at 850mb and some frontal pooling can do… plus residual moisture behind the front. If it’s -12C at the ridges, and the lift is happening just above that (like water flowing over a barrier), the snow growth is optimized in that DGZ of -12C to -16C. If there’s some moisture, it’ll snow above its weight.

As I mentioned in the NNE thread… the snow plots indicated 6-8” overnight. Which can ski like 14”.

Absolutely nuked last night. Plots had 6-8” overnight that skied like 14”.

Just shy of 3” on the car this morning and 6” new in the ski area parking lots.

Yeah flow has been becoming more blocked, lift shallower, and deeper moisture decreasing after the cold front. Putting the better snow upstream of the barrier. I bet the west slope communities are seeing a steady fluff job. There’s definitely some right to left drift on the higher scans with stiff NW flow and CAA. Usually a bit east of the best radar scans is where the snow ends up. Right now the best returns are backing up towards Williston/BTV suburbs area, but I bet towns like Underhill to Jericho are getting it best. @J.Spinhas to be getting smoked.

Giggity. What an end to November. It’s snowing nicely in town with an inch down. The mountain is getting absolutely throttled. Near 2”/hr stuff.

1” past hour at Mtn. Getting blitzed.

Walked the dog on the Rec path this afternoon and the amount of tree damage is pretty impressive from the paste. The birches got destroyed almost uniformly ha. There’s a half a dozen down over a stretch of a mile.

I don’t know, I feel like Coastalwx has been on the PVD running cold for a while. I don’t disagree with most of what you said but I do think the long time met posters on here are pretty unbiased and able to sniff out errors. @CoastalWx @ORH_wxman @OceanStWx @dendrite are some of the best and finding cold or warm biases and you won’t find them with an agenda in either way.

This sounds like bias to be honest. Looking for a reason to be warm and discrediting MADIS. ORH has been discussed on here for the past two years as running high.

It is absolutely dumping silver dollar flakes of fluff. What a wintry day. 2” new at the mountain this afternoon.

It looks good. That cement will be hard to eradicate. Might start the seasonal snowpack.

Yeah super localized. Just drove up to the mountain to take some runs and Town was noticeably snowier. Just some flurries up here and road relatively clear.

Dumping. Quick inch of squally fluff. Winter.

Overall a decent November up this way. Two solid advisory events, both high-QPF events that punched above their weight. Last night’s probably could’ve been in the warning criteria for impact, not that the headline matters, just as a way to rank them. A variety of snow showers, coatings, cold temperatures with good snowmaking. A degree or two below normal temps, maybe marginally better snow than average, and the mountain progressing as normal… normal is very good after recent seasons. Visually it’s winter out there. Stiff, water logged snow now freezing crisp as temp has hit 32F. A decent November overall given climo. Here’s a shot one of the snow surfaces team took last night of a parked snowcat outside the vehicle maintenance building. Things like last night happen when the strongest omega rides the snow growth zone.