powderfreak

Where are you in reference to like Ryan’s station totals? Big gradient.

It’s definitely relative to the times and expectations of today’s modeling vs. 30 years ago when the internet was just starting to transfer information to the public. Those days were so naive, even for forecasters.

A clipper would be welcomed.

I just posted in the other thread that it’s been rough. Even a fresh coating tonight has felt like a big win. Departures have been incredible of +10<. Snowpack has been so hard to build. We don’t have much left here in the valley at only 750 feet. It was a granular gray, with only 6” of high-QPF remaining snowpack here in my backyard zone. Very springtime type snow cover. For the first time in a while we had a brief snow shower move through this evening. Only a quarter inch but has frosted the vegetation again.

Good call, 5 hour difference in maps but only 3 hours difference in run time.

We don’t have much left here in the valley at only 750 feet. It was a granular gray, with 6” of high-QPF remaining snowpack here in my backyard zone. Very springtime type snow cover. For the first time in a while we had a nice snow shower move through this evening. Only a quarter inch but has frosted the vegetation again.

This is even between 22z and 01z. Only a few hours. Keeps tightening the gradient south in the beginning of the event. 22z 01z

Wouldn’t some parents actually enjoy a notification that school is back on? The ones who know their day will be strapped due to childcare now? Who will be the first school in history to try reversing an early decision? At some point it’ll happen. Text and call alerts. It could be done. If some kids still stay home, who cares, but you get the day in.

Ha, right? Its going to rain for SNE, it’ll keep trending north. It is interesting the posters who genuinely get enjoyment when the contrarian outcome occurs. The opposite of what the masses desire. Rain or whiff is all the same to them.

You have to feel for all local meteorologists and the profession as a whole. This is the stuff that we all know couldn’t be seen happening, and the public will have zero mercy. The consistency was so stable for several days. You have to message that “modeled storm” the past few days to the public. But then if it snows 0-6”, after widespread 8-12”+ forecast with 1-2”/hr snows… it’s going be cause a whole other wave of “forecasters are a joke.”

That is absolutely unbelievable. It goes to show, consistency between day 2-7 means nothing. The last 24-48 hours is what matters coming into an event.

lol that’s not how I remember Messenger shuffles up here. They go ESE each run to go time, a tiny bit at a time. Like a torture you can’t avoid . When Messenger was posting bouy observations and every RAP run each hour sliding away in the last 6 hours before an event.

Yeah good positive depth increases there.

The positive snow depth map is likely the much better option.

18z HRRR crushes NYC. What a system for modeling.

It’s pretty marginal but sleet wouldn’t be that surprising along the warm nose. It’s just the boundary layer may not be overly cold. Folks hear sleet and think of cold pellets accumulating in the 20s. Overall this looks like snow and white rain/rain will be the gradient.

It’s only 30% into the month so far but these departures are incredible. Might be beating a dead horse after a couple months of these departures, but the fact that there has been snow on the ground for most of the winter has been the surprising part. 1V4… +13.7 (100+ year POR) MVL… +13.3 BTV… +11.9 (140+ year POR) MPV… +10.8 Yesterday was 55/30 and a +27 at both MPV and MVL.

1.2" QPF on a 7:1 ratio is a fun event. Looking forward to some of the obs and photos from this.

Not gonna happen but the fact that it gives you double digits while has a sleet pocket over a hilltop in Tolland is amusing.

Lean back.

Hard to deny the GFS consistency. Nice hits over and over for SNE. This stuff is healthy.

Personally, I’d go with the ICON over the GGEM. The Germans don’t over-forecast snow most of the time.

For sure, they can’t be looked at as a final solution. No model really can. It’s all one big ensemble to us all on the forum. We check them out, but weigh them according and look for trends.

Yup, and we all check its solution too.

People shit on it all day long at times, but it often operates in the realm of possibilities. So much so that we all check it each run.