powderfreak

This one has been easy to watch from afar. Heavy suppression has been evident for a few days. This one is locked and loaded for SNE. As an outsider’s perspective, I like I-90/Pike to RT 2 zone. I think the chances to get the pivot (even if quick moving), reside in that latitude block. Maybe it sneaks into SNE? But if a good deform band develops and nukes… that’s the 12-18” zone.

+12 to start the first 10 days of February. This winter has been incredible for positive departures.

Summertime hail storms and localized downpours today. Lightning and thunder in the the 15-20 mile radius. Just another February day. The weather and cloud cover was so much like a summer cold front day. Torrential precipitation while the sky was breaking blue… convective.

Summertime hail storms and localized downpours today. Lightning and thunder in the the 15-20 mile radius. Just another February day. The weather and cloud cover was so much like a summer cold front day. Torrential precipitation while the sky was breaking blue… convective.

Folks need to see solutions within 48 hours of go-time. Still several days to go; it feels like we’ve been tracking the period for weeks.

I’m mildly concerned about a day of clouds. Looks like it should be a good one to raise spirits in SNE. Everyone has been so beaten down this winter. Would be nice to get some positivity going for the masses.

I mean, this is climo for those closer to the coast. Within 50-75 miles of the Atlantic (goes back past ORH) is prone to healthy QPF snows… currently looks like a classic Miller B. Eastern latitude be favored.

Thanks guys, I just happen to find myself in a position to be able to inform the core skier/rider group with information. Solid understanding of the weather, understanding that “snowfall” is what it is at consistent plots, and knowledge of operations (with the trust we will communicate properly) is what drives a snow report. It’s the written storytelling of a day on the mountain… the morning outlook… end of the day reflection. Jay does it very well, with Stowe.

This one has some work to do to get back up here. Not impossible though given the season, ha.

Strong inversion this morning. Some fire filling the valley with smoke, can’t break the inversion.

Lake Champlain and associated CPV is pretty snow free. The snowpack is from the Spine and eastward. Photo from the Lake valley looking east at Mansfield. The localized winter climate up here is always interesting.

A “fun challenge” is a code phrase we are stuck in because its condition type is slick, not overly enjoyable, but open and available. It’s for those skiers/riders who are looking for a fun challenge, not an easy soft run. Hopefully the turns soften if temps are going to be mild at elevation.

The baseline climo is for weaker and later deepening. Know you are aware of the later deepening that often happens… that to me is the most impactful part to watch. Wherever it develops or doesn’t.

+9.4 for the first week of February. What a torch. Max of 37F this past week, min of 7F. Big departures, no where near as cold as usual. The obscene departures continue.

Sometimes it’s hard to comprehend but humans are like lemmings. It can happen quickly on a busy day. There is zero doubt the area they all left the resort now has signage and is well marked. Ski areas learn where to mark based on past behavior. The one thing that’s good is that the exit seemed relatively easy for rescuers. There is one rule of thumb in the northeast… follow the streams, gullies, rivers. They will almost always lead to access to civilization.

There are two paths for any given model run… stay the course or change from the previous run. The majority of runs will change from the previous run. That manifests itself often as reverting to a previous outcome. The process just alternates randomly from 00/06/12/18. We really only notice the changes the off-hour runs make and validate the 00/12z runs in our minds.

Complete mind games.

See I think it’s sort of a myth… 12z can just as easily be a change from 6z. 18z to 00z, etc. Its kind of like an urban legend of weather; if anything changes on a 6z or 18z run, its passed off as a symptom of off-hour craziness .

We have to be in contention for warmest Dec/Jan/Feb meteorological winter up here. I haven’t looked it up but putting up around +8 in the means over 2+ months is wild. And then to have snow cover (not deep but stout) for most of those departures… weird winter.

Up here it also isn’t deep winter by any means. The temperature departures have been incredible. The most incredible part is despite the departures, the winter hasn’t been a complete dumpster fire. We’ve had snow cover for most of the time since November. These departures have resulted in some very dense snow, mixed with a decent amount of rain. MVL ASOS November… -0.7 December… +7.8 January… +8.1 February starting off at +9.5 near the end of week 1. That is an insane flip from November. Putting up those departures but still feeling like it’s been a winter. Today was nice to see the sun and only +4. “Snowpack” is solid ice. Can walk on it.

Yup, throw a 3-5 foot societal disrupter in there and move onto the warm season satisfied after that, ha.

I doubt they ducked a rope. They followed tracks. It happens relatively frequently. Ski Patrol and resort Ops can’t rope the entire ski area. People love to follow tracks if it looks good. We have a place at Stowe called the “Deer Fields” that Stowe Mtn Rescue ends up going in after people a few times a season. It’s off Toll Road and looks very good and skiable. Problem is it drops you into acres of flats and deep snow by the XC Ski Center. And this stuff often happens off beginner trails to be honest and in this instance at Killington it sounds like it was off Great Eastern (Killington’s version of like Stowe’s Toll Road). It probably looked super attractive if 10+ people were already down there. The more worn the path the more likely people are to follow it.

Sounds like up here. We are on a stretch of above days going back to 1/22. We just had two +5 days which were the coldest departures in two weeks. Did 12 straight days of +10 or more and 3 of +20 or more. All with solid snowpack too. It’s all overnight mins just getting torched and the departures are wild this winter. If there’s a way to constantly run ridiculous warm departures, this is it… snowpack, looks like winter and don’t have to pay heating bills because every day is 34/24 instead of 20/3 or whatever.

It’s going to get warm later this week. Positive departures here probably average +15 for 3-4 days later this week. Currently 16F makes me hope we can get down under 10F tonight and near the 4F normal. It was a record -21F last year. The dichotomy is not unnoticed. The valley has a weak snowpack but it is QPF-rich. The mountains in the distance are the Worcester Range. The secondary ridge that forms the eastern Stowe (town) boundary. Behind us is the Spine and also creates some good vertical relief.

You and other NVT skiers/riders know what “fun challenge” means… not ideal and slick/firm surfaces but still skiable and open. These phrases are like codes for condition types.