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powderfreak

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Everything posted by powderfreak

  1. powderfreak
    Yeah good positive depth increases there.
  2. powderfreak
    The positive snow depth map is likely the much better option.
  3. powderfreak
    18z HRRR crushes NYC. What a system for modeling.
  4. powderfreak
    It’s pretty marginal but sleet wouldn’t be that surprising along the warm nose. It’s just the boundary layer may not be overly cold. Folks hear sleet and think of cold pellets accumulating in the 20s. Overall this looks like snow and white rain/rain will be the gradient.
  5. powderfreak
    It’s only 30% into the month so far but these departures are incredible. Might be beating a dead horse after a couple months of these departures, but the fact that there has been snow on the ground for most of the winter has been the surprising part. 1V4… +13.7 (100+ year POR) MVL… +13.3 BTV… +11.9 (140+ year POR) MPV… +10.8 Yesterday was 55/30 and a +27 at both MPV and MVL.
  6. powderfreak
    1.2" QPF on a 7:1 ratio is a fun event. Looking forward to some of the obs and photos from this.
  7. powderfreak
    Not gonna happen but the fact that it gives you double digits while has a sleet pocket over a hilltop in Tolland is amusing.
  8. powderfreak
    Lean back.
  9. powderfreak
    Hard to deny the GFS consistency. Nice hits over and over for SNE. This stuff is healthy.
  10. powderfreak
    Personally, I’d go with the ICON over the GGEM. The Germans don’t over-forecast snow most of the time.
  11. powderfreak
    For sure, they can’t be looked at as a final solution. No model really can. It’s all one big ensemble to us all on the forum. We check them out, but weigh them according and look for trends.
  12. powderfreak
    Yup, and we all check its solution too.
  13. powderfreak
    People shit on it all day long at times, but it often operates in the realm of possibilities. So much so that we all check it each run.
  14. powderfreak
    This one has been easy to watch from afar. Heavy suppression has been evident for a few days. This one is locked and loaded for SNE. As an outsider’s perspective, I like I-90/Pike to RT 2 zone. I think the chances to get the pivot (even if quick moving), reside in that latitude block. Maybe it sneaks into SNE? But if a good deform band develops and nukes… that’s the 12-18” zone.
  15. powderfreak
    +12 to start the first 10 days of February. This winter has been incredible for positive departures.
  16. powderfreak
    Summertime hail storms and localized downpours today. Lightning and thunder in the the 15-20 mile radius. Just another February day. The weather and cloud cover was so much like a summer cold front day. Torrential precipitation while the sky was breaking blue… convective.
  17. powderfreak
    Summertime hail storms and localized downpours today. Lightning and thunder in the the 15-20 mile radius. Just another February day. The weather and cloud cover was so much like a summer cold front day. Torrential precipitation while the sky was breaking blue… convective.
  18. powderfreak
    Folks need to see solutions within 48 hours of go-time. Still several days to go; it feels like we’ve been tracking the period for weeks.
  19. powderfreak
    I’m mildly concerned about a day of clouds. Looks like it should be a good one to raise spirits in SNE. Everyone has been so beaten down this winter. Would be nice to get some positivity going for the masses.
  20. powderfreak
    I mean, this is climo for those closer to the coast. Within 50-75 miles of the Atlantic (goes back past ORH) is prone to healthy QPF snows… currently looks like a classic Miller B. Eastern latitude be favored.
  21. powderfreak
    Thanks guys, I just happen to find myself in a position to be able to inform the core skier/rider group with information. Solid understanding of the weather, understanding that “snowfall” is what it is at consistent plots, and knowledge of operations (with the trust we will communicate properly) is what drives a snow report. It’s the written storytelling of a day on the mountain… the morning outlook… end of the day reflection. Jay does it very well, with Stowe.
  22. powderfreak
    This one has some work to do to get back up here. Not impossible though given the season, ha.
  23. powderfreak
    Strong inversion this morning. Some fire filling the valley with smoke, can’t break the inversion.
  24. powderfreak
    Lake Champlain and associated CPV is pretty snow free. The snowpack is from the Spine and eastward. Photo from the Lake valley looking east at Mansfield. The localized winter climate up here is always interesting.
  25. powderfreak
    A “fun challenge” is a code phrase we are stuck in because its condition type is slick, not overly enjoyable, but open and available. It’s for those skiers/riders who are looking for a fun challenge, not an easy soft run. Hopefully the turns soften if temps are going to be mild at elevation.
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