powderfreak
-
Posts
78,889 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Profiles
Blogs
Forums
American Weather
Media Demo
Store
Gallery
Everything posted by powderfreak
-
January 6-7, 2024 Winter Storm Obs Thread
powderfreak replied to WxWatcher007's topic in New England
3” snowing steady 1 sm. -
Combine good snow growth with sticky surface temperatures near 30-32F, those flakes link up and become potato chips, trapping air and accumulating rapidly.
-
Meteorologically, I would think the best QPF would be closer to the best forcing to the N/NW of the SFC low. Not the far ULL stuff into NW NE. Mid-level goodies probably hit CNE somewhere. The HRRR QPF makes sense. The rest is just ratios and snow growth as you go north and west. Maybe 0.40” QPF is 4”, maybe it’s 7”. While maybe some spot way down south sees 0.90” QPF as 7” of paste with some marginal white rain in between.
-
I’m not gonna lie, people shit on the HRRR all the time but it can be pretty good. It nailed several events for us up here back in Novie and early Dec. If it doesn’t show what we want, it’s a running joke to dismiss it. But it has its moments when consistent.
-
18z Euro. We hope up north.
-
Ahh I thought that was round 2… that’s the easterly flow after the overrunning thump. But I see what you are talking about… that weird little QPF streak that looks dubious? I don’t think that QPF in CT is the CCB… just looks odd when looped…. Almost convective. But who knows.
-
I really don’t see much difference between 19z HRRR you posted and the NAM. Same general areas… HRRR NAM…
-
What’s the NAM show?
-
Of what 24 hours?
-
Snowy Euro run and not done yet.
-
That’s a great run. GFS and EURO both over 0.70” QPF now up here. Upslope is pretty persistent with -12C 850s… fluffer tomorrow evening and night even.
-
It’s addicting. Because you envision what could happen so viscerally. Sometimes the actual event is disappointing, but it’s really rooted in expectations. For anyone who hasn’t seen actual snowfall so far this season, getting even 6” of legit (dense), synoptic snow will feel like a blizzard. Even from afar, it’ll be fun to watch unfold. This forum comes into its own when a “nor’easter” moves through.
-
Yeah good early runs for the SNE crew. That wild north stuff from some of the 12z runs is largely gone. Ya’ll deserve a good one.
-
Isn’t that temperature not p-type? Poor choice of colors though around that temperature.
-
It looked the same as the WxBell one? Just different color scales. Widespread 6-8” with a zone of 10”+ ORH to LWM.
-
You are getting dangled there pretty good.
-
Region wide. North south, east west.
-
3km NAM taking Ray to the woodshed.
-
Its almost like looking at the actual models would help sometimes, ha.
-
Entering the chat… would love to “steal” 3-6”. 12z HRRR extended looked to be headed that way too.
-
It’s still interesting to see the lingering aftermath of the recent microscale snowfall. Stealing a number of cold season days with the “fresh snowfall look” (courtesy of mesoscale features), is not taken for granted. Waiting for a synoptic storm to do this, can be frustrating. But instead it’s some weird turbulence producing the same visual. Life along the Mountain Road has been a visual feast for winter vibes, and all because of some super random, localized convergence zone behind a peak.
-
Yeah for sure it’ll crash when the wind backs NW, but getting 0.50-0.75” QPF at 32-33F would be a beautiful tree caking snow.
-
It’s a pretty uniform SFC temp display across the south/east half of SNE… from CT to the South Shore. That steady moderate to heavy precipitation wet-bulbs everyone to 32-33F. Theres some paste in there.
-
Nice run for the coastal folks worried about p-type.
