nj2va

It’s hard not getting excited (unless you’re Webb or a few downers here) where we’re going in January looking at medium range ensembles. GEFS is pushing + height anomalies into GL on NYD. I picked this panel a few days later as -NAO is settling in but check out the Pacific. -EPO, +PNA (and cross polar flow) with a STJ split flow undercutting the ridge with a parade of vorts continuing to enter the CONUS. Roll this forward a few more days and I find it hard to believe we don’t see accumulating snow in the first 7-10 days of January.

CCB p0rn

A beaut to see. It’s about to go boom.

A very merry Christmas to all. Off to 8a mass to celebrate the birth of Jesus. May we all remember the real reason of the season today.

It’s going to be one of those days get ready.

Yeah, first time in the last couple of years it won’t be 55 and raining all holiday week at the MD/WV ski resorts. Great to see for their business.

What year was it that the pattern flipped in early January with an event that kicked off a heater for the rest of the winter? 2015? Kinda feels like we are heading that way (different patterns yadda yadda).

GFS at least suggests the 500 vort passage next week will offer some upslope to the ski resorts in MD/WV and temps that support snowmaking heading into New Years.

That second wave doesn’t have any NS interaction with the lobe over Canada. That’s probably a good thing for us on the coastal plain (hence your point about it maybe being the one ).

Does that help reinforce the 50/50 lower heights?

Save your knowledgeable, scientific analysis for another time. Let us all enjoy our foot+ of digital snowfall.

Others may call it guaranteed

Who will mention “but we don’t want to be in the bullseye this far out” first?

Nice to see another OP run continue to show this window as a threat.

That was perfect…plenty cold and solid moderate event for the region.

Yeah, incoming blues imminent at H342. This period keeps showing up as potentially our first trackable event.

For those looking for the digital blue fix, GFS seems to be setting up for the 5th/6th.

Dude, legit laughed reading this thread tonight.

That Leesburg 04 guy was a dumb dumb…you’re representing Leesburg much better.

Can I complain about your complaining? And then you can complain about my complaining about your complaining? And then I can complain about your complaining about my complaining about your complaining? And then this forum will just internally combust.

Yellows and blues in the right places.

Fixed

18z OP in la la land has a big storm in this time period with a sprawling High Pressure dropping in from Canada. Not worth parsing details that far out but continues to show the potential in the window even if the OP didn’t work out for us on this run. There’s a lot to like on the 500 map even though the vort went negative too soon. This could be our first discreet threat window to start tracking.

The low pressure off the maritimes is so clutch for the MA - helps prevent the High pressures over Canada/Lakes from flying through where we’re completely banking on luck/timing. We have more ‘wiggle’ room in a 500 setup like that esp with the number of southern stream waves moving through. I know I’m a weenie but hard not to think we have an AN chance of snow the first week of January.

BAM is terrible at seasonal forecasting. I’d rather post 12 year CPC maps than their crap.