nj2va

D15 EPS is a good look. Low heights centered over the east, -NAO building, +PNA, Aleutian low.

I wish we could pin this as a headline on the forum. Would help to keep expectations in check for a few posters.

Storms usually hit north of us first in a pattern change. This would fit that.

Maybe the Ravens thought the game is at 1pm PST?

Admittedly I don’t follow the Ravens, why isn’t Flacco playing?

I was just about to say the same thing...Euro’s “warmup” next week looks like mid 40s so far.

Yup, I think the things to watch will be the kicker out west and the granddaughter PV (as Bob alluded to above).

Looks like the heaviest precip stays over the Eastern Shore. Gets kicked east but nice improvement at the 500 level. SV snowmaps has 1-2” for DC...2-4” just east of DC. 4”+ on the eastern shore. 1” line at IAD..sorry Ji. eta: looking at it again, really nice trend at the 500 level. Good runs at 12z overall.

More interaction between the streams on the Euro. Better ridge out west too.

Ravens must have been cooking lunch with Crisco before the game.

Updated from Euro...pretty ideal and continues to look better.

Seems the mean is skewed by a few big hits but GEFS (I’ll take e9 please) definitely showing the potential for this system if we can get a strong SS SW, not too much confluence that surpesses things, and/or phasing with the NS.

Interesting that the GEFS usually plays follow the leader...clearly not at 12z though. I wonder if they’re onto something...weenie handbook says yes.

Looking forward to Bob’s meteogram from WxBell since there is a marked increase on the snowfall maps for DC for next weekend.

This is the best the GEFS has looked for next weekend. eta: ninja’d by Tombo (great to see you here man!)

Go Ravens and Bears

The ignore feature works wonders...now if people could stop responding to him, I wouldn’t have to see his drivel.

A few drive bys from uniformed NYC forum weenies this morning isn’t helping matters up there. That central PA snowstorm guy needs to add some of his drivel up there...like pouring gasoline on a fire.

I think all systems go for a major pattern change starting to take shape by next weekend..dominoes start falling within 7 days on the ensembles. We’ll see an initial push of cold air but the first western ridge will shift east across the CONUS while the PAC retrogrades and locks in a favorable PAC with high heights in the PNA and EPO domains. Meanwhile, -NAO and -AO will continue to build. While there will be cold to tap from Canada, I don’t anticipate wall to wall cold in this pattern over us, which will probably cause some panic here. But as Bob and PSU alluded to yesterday, we don’t do well when we have a PV sitting over us. I think its going to be a very active pattern with multiple chances. We won’t hit a home run with every chance but we’ll do quite well IMO. Active times ahead. eta: 19-21st is a period to watch for sure.

7th straight day with negative SOI.

I’m happy we’re tracking something within 200 hours that’s not a 384H pattern change. Even if we fail next weekend (which is the likelier outcome at this point), it doesn’t sting as much considering all signs are pointing to multiple chances after that. Who’s starting the thread for it? :ducks:

I think its a TT issue...the link to the NCEP site that Yoda posted has all the panels. Just not as “pretty” as the TT stuff.

Isn’t this the backup kicker attempting the onside kick?

Wouldn’t take much correction on the GFS for a hit though.

Very little interaction between the NS and SS on the GFS so far.