nj2va

We’re north of Jackson, NH now and are heading to Dixville Notch in the morning. I’m sure the roads will be packed.

I’m glad you decided to chase the event!

The state is hosting a pretty big event in Colebrook, NH but I think we’re going to head to Dixville Notch. I’m pretty sure it’s going to be a zoo tomorrow.

I’m hoping everyone that is traveling is able to see the total eclipse and clouds are better than forecast. Have fun down there! From the deck, we can see a (very snowy) peak of Mt. Washington in the distance, which is pretty cool.

Just got to our rental north of Jackson, NH. Solid snow cover on the ground - currently in the mid 50s and sunny.

We’re in southern NH en route to our rental in northern NH. Lots of volume heading north on the roads already.

We had a rental in Niagara Falls Canada but just booked a place north of Jackson tomorrow through Tuesday. Trying to figure out which town to drive to Monday.

I think that’s a good idea, and there seems to be some decent availability. I highly recommend going to see it…it’s really freaking cool.

We just made the call to abandon NY. Got a place in NH 20 mins outside the path of totality and will drive to see it. We are in Long Island for a family thing and will head up in the morning.

The roads aren’t able to handle the crowds either IMO.

I’m just going to start focusing on the meso models and the Euro. GFS and GEPS seems to hate NY. NWS Buffalo discussion isn’t all terrible. Ridging slides off to the east Monday as warm frontal boundary pushes into the region from the southwest. There continues to be model support of at least a narrow line of weakening showers that will graze southwestern portion of the area during the morning hours. The weakening trend is likely to continue into the afternoon with most if not all of the light shower activity falling apart as isentropic lift/forcing associated with the warm front wanes. Cloud forecast during the Monday afternoon eclipse remains uncertain at this junction and may not even be fully known until just a few hours before the event starts. Confidence remains high that high level cloud cover will be over nearly the entire area, with an expected band of mid level cloud traversing at least a portion of western New York. Model mid and upper level moisture fields during the afternoon do show a favorable decreasing trend which would suggest the idea that some of this cloud cover will thin. Temperatures look mild with highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s.

This is so much more exciting than tracking snow.

Things have gotten a bit better for western NY over the last day. We were up in the 60s for cloud cover on NBM and it’s back down into the upper 40s/low 50s as it oscillates back and forth. I’d gamble with that.

I’m trying to decide if I want to switch from Niagara Falls to Lake Placid. I’d lose half my house rental in Niagara Falls and have to rent another place in Lake Placid. But it seems clouds will be an issue in western NY.

Miserable.

I think we're tied to that departing storm off the NE coast. I think if that moves out a bit sooner, it'd help to press that block down? With that lingering longer, it's making it possible for the next wave to undercut that ridge.

Agree and this is way more of an IMBY sport than snowfall is.

Nice to see a positive shift on the 00z GEFS for the Great Lakes area. The shortwave is further back to the west and its dropped a lot of its SLPs that were in the OH valley. And the HP ridging is extending further west. 6z is rolling in now.

It seems the longer the system in New England this week sticks around, the worse it is for the OH Valley/Great Lakes on Monday.

Hopefully someone is getting the drought thread ready the moment we hit 5 days of sun/no precip.

If things look shtty (completely cloudy) for Niagara Falls on Friday, I’m going to book something last minute in Maine/New England. We’d lose 50% of our AirB&B but I want to see the eclipse.

GFS also sucks with cloud cover so I’d gamble in WNY with that verbatim on the 18z.

Good news! Would love to see this continue. There’s some spread over the OH valley but nothing like GEFS and GEPS.

Yeah, when I looked earlier this morning at the 6z, there was a ton of spread in the midwest on the Member MSLP plots. GEPS has a similar spread in its members from last night so lots of uncertainty to work out over the next few days. I'm just hoping we can hold onto the High long enough to keep the cloud cover at the cirrus level vs low level clouds. We have an AirB&B rented in Niagra Falls (Canada side) but if its full-on cloud cover there (vs cirrus), we might head to upstate NY last minute and just suffer in the traffic afterwards.

Another step back on NBM for Western NY overnight. Cloud cover is now up into the 60% range. Workable and I’m not going to panic, but disappointing given it was in the 30% range a few days ago. Hopefully the High holds on long enough to keep the clouds from progressing east Monday afternoon.