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Everything posted by nj2va
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Jan 15-16 Storm Threat Thread: The Return of Hope??
nj2va replied to stormtracker's topic in Mid Atlantic
NAM’d -
Jan 15-16 Storm Threat Thread: The Return of Hope??
nj2va replied to stormtracker's topic in Mid Atlantic
For this storm, that’s a NAMing -
Jan 15-16 Storm Threat Thread: The Return of Hope??
nj2va replied to stormtracker's topic in Mid Atlantic
Yeah, I didn’t know what upslope meant until I had a place at 2800 feet. -
Jan 15-16 Storm Threat Thread: The Return of Hope??
nj2va replied to stormtracker's topic in Mid Atlantic
You’d think PSU lives at Mt Washington or something. -
they should have kept the game tomorrow. Would have been epic https://x.com/jasrifootball/status/1746315273903186209?s=20
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Jan 15-16 Storm Threat Thread: The Return of Hope??
nj2va replied to stormtracker's topic in Mid Atlantic
I thought the same thing. -
Jan 15-16 Storm Threat Thread: The Return of Hope??
nj2va replied to stormtracker's topic in Mid Atlantic
18z Euro upped the ante vs 12z. 1-3” with slightly higher amounts in central/northern MD. -
Jan Medium/Long Range Disco 2: Total Obliteration is Coming
nj2va replied to Jebman's topic in Mid Atlantic
We should have multiple chances with that long wave pattern if it verifies. Way better than last winter when we were already tracking cherry blossoms. -
yeah, the plow guy took 90 minutes to clear our hill and driveway. This stuff is no joke…I’m surprised you didn’t break your shovel ha. Agreed, it’s definitely the “most winter” I’ve seen since then here. Roads were pretty slick as we headed to church earlier this evening. 19.7 with SN. Hard to tell how much we’ve gotten today with the winds today but I’d guess around 3”. WWA for another 2-5” overnight through tomorrow morning.
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Temp down to 21. Sitting on the porch with a hot toddy watching the snow fall. My partner said I’m crazy - I told him just wait til I stay up til 1a tonight to track 1” of snow at home Tuesday. Short video from the porch:
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Jan 15-16 Storm Threat Thread: The Return of Hope??
nj2va replied to stormtracker's topic in Mid Atlantic
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Temp down to 25.9 with winds gusting into the 30s. Got a good snow shower blowing through and there’s 8-12” snow depth/glacier on the ground. You can walk on the snow without falling through to the bottom it’s so dense/frozen. And can’t go without a deck pic:
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Jan 15-16 Storm Threat Thread: Do we finally win or get Saltburned?
nj2va replied to H2O's topic in Mid Atlantic
With how old SV graphics look, that could be a snow map from 1989 honestly- 425 replies
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Yeah, we have a local plow guy do it. We live up at the top of an unpaved hill - I wasn’t expecting this much snow to be on the ground so we didn’t call to get our hill plowed. Luckily made it up to the house (a few spots where I didn’t think we would) but he’s coming in the morning to plow the hill. 4WD and snow tires FTW!
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Just got to deep creek. 32 degrees with an icy mix. Hit a patch around Mt Storm, WV that was nearly white out with heavy snow and gusty winds.
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Jan 15-16 Storm Threat Thread: Do we finally win or get Saltburned?
nj2va replied to H2O's topic in Mid Atlantic
Hopefully it holds here, would like to prevent last week's storm where this just kept bleeding totals until gametime.- 425 replies
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Jan 15-16 Storm Threat Thread: Do we finally win or get Saltburned?
nj2va replied to H2O's topic in Mid Atlantic
It almost looks like (at least for the Euro’s solution verbatim), we would have been better if the coastal never formed. Once it did, it robbed the WAA precip that was aimed at us. Once the coastal formed, it was just too far east/off the coast to matter. It stopped the bleeding and that was good to see - onto the ensembles.- 425 replies
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Jan 15-16 Storm Threat Thread: Do we finally win or get Saltburned?
nj2va replied to H2O's topic in Mid Atlantic
If he’s in, I’m in.- 425 replies
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Jan Medium/Long Range Disco 2: Total Obliteration is Coming
nj2va replied to Jebman's topic in Mid Atlantic
I just got whiplash from the last two pages of posts. -
I think we should go ahead and start a thread before the 12z runs. Let's really make people here panic by starting a thread...........................
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Jan Medium/Long Range Disco 2: Total Obliteration is Coming
nj2va replied to Jebman's topic in Mid Atlantic
So this is an AI model generated by the EMCWF based on the Euro data? -
Jan Medium/Long Range Disco 2: Total Obliteration is Coming
nj2va replied to Jebman's topic in Mid Atlantic
Members over 2” ticked up to 23/30 for DC. I’ll take P15 please. -
Jan Medium/Long Range Disco 2: Total Obliteration is Coming
nj2va replied to Jebman's topic in Mid Atlantic
WPC for Days 4 and 5 and snippet of the disco - they don’t seem to favor the Euro’s solution. The 12Z and now the 00Z ECMWF deterministicruns are more offshore where hardly any precipitation is onshoreof the East Coast. This seems unlikely based on other guidance andthe EC ensemble mean and members, but unfortunately theECMWF-initialized machine learning models did not seem to run forthe 12Z cycle, so we lack that piece of information that couldhelp with the model diagnostics. ETA: Oops sorry, posed earlier too. -
Jan Medium/Long Range Disco 2: Total Obliteration is Coming
nj2va replied to Jebman's topic in Mid Atlantic
It doesn’t come out for another hour by the time our storm is in range. -
Jan Medium/Long Range Disco 2: Total Obliteration is Coming
nj2va replied to Jebman's topic in Mid Atlantic
this. I’d much rather see that than 18z keep going towards its 12z ‘where the storm at’ idea.
