nj2va

Lol at the idea that the NAM will get these features right beyond H48.

You may just have to ski down your driveway. We were planning on going skiing Monday too but we live up an unpaved hill so I highly doubt I'll be heading out Monday -- maybe some night skiing though.

Oh yeah...will be there tomorrow evening through Tuesday. Mountains look to get smoked and upslope will be cranking Monday afternoon into the night. They need the snow.

I'm looking at the sounding on Pivotal - at 1a Monday, the precip type map shows sleet over Winchester. I clicked on the sounding and its basically juuuuuuust under freezing from 800 down with winds at 850 coming out of the NW - S/SE of Winchester is basically 0 for those levels. I only see the 3 hour panels so perhaps in the hours between 10p and 1a there's some mixing going on - but I don't think it's hours upon hours. Those exact details will be worked out tomorrow and Saturday for sure.

I didn't dig much into the individual members but EPS MSLP and 500 mean track backs up the OP well. MSLP track is central NC to RIC to NE MD/SE PA. There's still about 15 or so that track it east of DC over the Bay/Delmarva. And notably bigger spread shows up by H96 when the mean is over SE PA/NE MD.

Heights pressing down a bit more over NE through 63. 500 still a bit quicker than 6z and ESE.

Are you going to be out in WV for this one? Will pad a few inches+ on top of what falls from upslope.

I think @Ralph Wiggum wrote that.

To quote @clskinsfan, the ICON is a beatdown for 81/west.

EPS 500 track shifted east from 00z. 00z mean had the 500 low track over NW VA and 06z has it tracking through central VA to just east of DC. I haven’t looked into the individual members but the takeaway for me is the 6z Euro and EPS seems to have stopped the westward push for now.

Making absolutes about the entire sub-forum going to rain doesn’t jive with guidance or events with similar 500/surface tracks.

The further east closed H5 low is good to see - like you said, hard to extrapolate from there but I’d wager the track would have been east of 00z if the run went on.

6z Euro (runs to 90) appears slightly faster than 00z and also I’d say it (probably) stopped a further westward shift from 00z as it looks a touch S/E of 00z. A wall of snow incoming with CHO getting SN++.

Good discussion by LWX: .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A very potent low pressure system will be pushing across the southeastern U.S. on Sunday morning, with wintry weather ongoing to our southwest. The surface low will track north and east from there across our region through Sunday night and into the northeastern U.S. by Monday morning/afternoon. Confidence has increased in the path of this system at this point, with the expectation that the low pretty much bisects the region tracking west of the I-95 corridor. Virtually all guidance has come to this solution, with still varying tracks by a little here and there. The key is, there is a consensus starting to take shape. This ultimately translates to a very messy forecast, particularly along the I-95 corridor. With a strong surface high to the north, don`t see any way we don`t at least see some front end snowfall as the system approaches from the southwest. However, thinking we see a fairly quick transition to wintry mix then rain along/east of I-95 especially. For areas west of the I-95 corridor, well it is going to depend on how far west you are. Sill thinking areas east of the Blue Ridge will changeover to a wintry mix and even to all rain at some point. But think we could see more in the way of snowfall as the cold air holds on longer just along/east of the Blue Ridge. For areas west of the Blue Ridge out to the Alleghenies...this is where we will likely see the big winners in terms of snowfall with this event. Cold air is expected to remain locked in place as the low tracks east of these areas. All this being said, have come down a touch for the I-95 corridor in our winter threat matrix, as consensus builds on a less impactful event there. For areas west, especially west of the Blue Ridge, prepare for a significant winter storm Sunday night into Monday. We aren`t quite into the range for any snowfall amount forecasts just yet, so still a good bit of time for things to shift one way or the other. In fact, the 12z suite of guidance this morning will be the first that has a real sample of the upper-level features at play, as they just moved on land overnight. So, it is important to keep checking back in on our forecast as we fine tune it in the days to come. The ceiling for this event is high for the entire area if this system were to shift east, so keep that in mind for your planning purposes. For our latest forecasts, check weather.gov/lwx/winter. By Monday morning, the aforementioned low will be departing to the northeast. This will leave mostly dry and windy conditions across the region. Expect some lingering light upslope snow showers along the Allegheny Front, but should taper off by the afternoon or early evening.

Latest WPC:

All three Globals (ETA: the ones I care more about…GFS, Euro, CMC) with similar tracks at 00z. I wonder if the westward bumps are finished. I’m starting to sweat for the mountains, lol.

Ah, that’s right. Thanks for clarifying/the reminder. Kind of fascinating the OP went west while the GEFS went east (with more suppressed solutions).

It’d be nice to see the panel between 96 and 120 on the meteocentre site but UKMET takes the SLP from Savannah at 96 to Central/Western Mass at 120. Seems like it’d be east of GFS/CMC at our latitude based on that.

Didn’t high risk post earlier this week that the GFS OP and ensembles are basically run off two different parameters? GFS OP was upgraded but GEFS wasn’t?

He should start our next thread.

The way this is looking now, I’d say yes for I-95/close in burbs. But further N&W towards I-81 and west, the chance at staying all frozen is much higher. Of course, by Friday, GFS could be cutting this west of Pittsburgh, ha.

Hard to read the B&W maps but it looks like the CMC tracks the SLP similar(ish) to GFS.

For the snow map weenies

The CCB is pretty insane on the ICON.