nj2va

Great period by the Caps.

Worry posts spread like wildfire in the LR thread - if the 12-17th window gets pushed back to the end of December, it’ll quite literally be a dumpster fire of moaning and groaning. We’ve seen delayed = denied but I have a hard time believing we come out of the upcoming advertised without seeing any snow (unless the thing just goes poof in the next 5 days which seems unlikely). We also have to remember total annual snowfall in DC is like 15-20” depending on where you are in the immediate metro area…coming out of this pattern with a 4-8” moderate event is climo.

Hopefully a good sign for the rest of the winter based on historical analogs: In the replies, he also added: "of the years were La Nina going by the monthly 3.4 value. 1995, 2010, 1962, 1970. All 4 had a -NAO January, 2 of the 4 had negative Jan and Feb"

Apparently a GFS upgrade went live the other day (16.3). I don’t understand most of this but it looks like they are saying it’ll fix snowfall amounts in marginal setups (among other upgrades). https://www.weather.gov/media/notification/pdf2/scn22-104_gfs.v16.3.0.pdf

18z GFS is an upslope dream for the mountains as those vorticities rotate through.

Jeebus, a 562 anomaly west-based -NAO.

Gorgeous pink colors playing off the whispy clouds at sunset.

Whens the radio show?

I was about to post the same thing. Did you get a sneak peak of that this morning?

We need @mitchnick back

Weenie question but is that indicated by those squiggly 500 bars over Mexico?

I’m flying out on the 12th for a work trip and returning on the 15th. It’ll certainly snow here that week.

GFS OP shows how we can score mid month (caveat: it’ll change wildly, rely on the ensembles, etc). Should at least be more exciting than last December where we didn’t stand a chance (even in the mountains).

ALEET ALEET

Make that 793 for Ovi and 403 goals on the road (#1 all time now).

Ovi scores goal 792. Closing in on 2nd place all time.

I'm sure its been posted here somewhere, but I'd love to see stats on -AO in early winter and their staying power throughout the season. I thought I read somewhere that typically -AO/-NAO early in winter have staying power/consistency vs a one and done type pattern.

USA!!

Ugh, just got a meeting added to my calendar from 2-230. FFS.

https://www.weather.gov/media/publications/assessments/bz-mrg.pdf (Page 14) and http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/1996/07-Jan-96-500MillibarMaps.html for the 500/etc maps Jan 96 had sprawling HPs to the north, trough in the east, multiple LPs that formed/diminished/reformed over the Gulf/SE until the ‘main’ LP formed near Cape Hatteras which eventually became ‘the’ LP. The 500 maps show a classic closed bowling ball and the trough is eventually negatively tilted and captures the rapidly deepening LP off the Mid Atl coast. This was the mean geopotential height anomaly for the first five days of January that year, leading up to the storm (hopefully I did this right).

Trailer for 1923 is out: https://www.indiewire.com/2022/11/1923-trailer-harrison-ford-helen-mirren-yellowstone-prequel-1234781998/ I loved 1883 and I’m currently on Season 1 of Yellowstone - such a great show.

Our problems with UHI / non sticking events (when we’re early/late in the season) IMO are the marginal temps (32-33) and light precip. Last year’s January storm happened the day after it was 65 (I was in shorts outside on Sunday) but we had hot and heavy rates for several hours Monday morning which dropped 11” here, and had no problem sticking to the streets, etc.

Something something something anomalous blocking something something something its going to happen like that something snow something

I'm cautiously optimistic we win - going 3-1 USA. If you told me we had to beat Iran and would advance (and have a small chance at winning the group outright), I'd take those odds.

I'll roll the dice anytime with a -AO/-NAO (and west based) look like that. And I like seeing that in mid December vs early December...those 2ish weeks (and more) helps the coastal plain tremendously.