nj2va

At least we’re getting fantasy storms - a good sign the OP sees the changes that the ensembles have been showing.

Trend the last several runs for Sunday night/Monday's system on the GFS. Looks like it's picking up on the blocking - something to keep an eye on if blocking can flex enough.

That's quite the 50/50 low that the OP GFS has next week - it'd to be great if that follow-up storm didn't end into a cutter from going neg. tilt over the plains, and slid underneath us. There's a 1050 HP that's too far north too. If only we could rearrange this map by hand ETA: This map is staring at you.

In some good news, we’ve reached the earliest sunset time of the year - in a week from now, sunset will be a minute later and by months end, 10 minutes later.

I can’t find the link right now but apparently they did adjust gfs in the recent upgrade to account for temps in marginal setups (e.g. overly cold previously).

WRT to the Friday/Saturday deal, Euro with some mood flakes and maybe some slushly accumulations for favored areas (10:1 show accumulation but temps are above freeing). I'd even take some snow TV that doesn't accumulate for festive purposes.

12z ensembles giving the dopium hit of 500mb NHEMI maps

D10 +PNA!

I'd like to see CNE/SNE cash in on a snowstorm since it seems like in years past, especially in the midst of pattern changes (or RELOADED pattern changes), mid ATL scores after we miss a few chances that hit New England. Probably unpopular opinion here but seems like general evolution in storm chances here in prior years.

6z GEFS continues to look different than the EPS in the LR. This is super LR so take with a grain of salt but here’s the trend of the last 4 runs. ETA: Meant to add that I'd like to see the GEFS not correcting to a less favorable PNA which seems to be the case based on the evolution above.

Great post! La Nina can go eff itself.

As someone who suffers from nose bleeds especially with dry air, recommend getting the Ayr nasal gel. Works wonders to prevent dryness.

Looks like PNA ~neutral on d10. evolves into this.

IDGAF this is an OP post D10. Still fun to see. CCB crushing NOVA/C MD.

Still differences in the PNA domain between EPS and GEFS. This isn't based on anything shown on today's models, but I still think it's going to take until closer to the end of the month for the Pacific to improve given the Nina base state.

I also feel like these pattern changes take time to take shape so even if there was a potential threat window early in the blocking pattern change, more often than not, those shift right. Snow in the first part of December is really hard to make happen for most in the forum (especially in a Nina). So even if the more favorable pacific is delayed until later in December (and hopefully links up with a favorable Atlantic), it’d be much better climo for the 95 areas. Level headed thinking and snow don’t go hand in hand in the mid Atlantic though…

I had four different people at work this week mention Jay’s wintry mix page to me and how they’re excited for snow this month.

Or was it Ji’s wintry mix followers storming the castle?

The PNA domain is centered over the west coast. A +PNA would feature a ridge over the west, which helps to dump cold air into the east from Canada and also helps form troughs in the east. This does have a -EPO, however (AK domain) with a ridge poking into Alaska.

T-14 hours until USA / Dutch - USA USA USA!

I don’t mind a delay by 1-2 weeks…gets us closer to prime climo. That, and I’m at Deep Creek week between Christmas and New Years.

I’d rather dissect that for an hour than look at more northern hemisphere 500mb anomaly maps for H360.

Yep, or the H5 energy passes south of us in south/central VA would help too. We’ll have lots of solutions show up over the next week. Night/day from last December where it was clear we stood no chance in the mid-Atlantic.

Welcome!!

I just finished watching the recording of the game…FFS.