ChescoWx

At least on the GFS below is the northern extent and time of the upper air 0c at both 850mb and 925mb. The modeled torch reaches about as far North as the PA Turnpike....

I look at the NAM but cannot take it seriously until less than 24 hours before game time

If I was making a forecast right now for Chester County I would go 4" to 6" for Western Chesco and 3" to 5" for Eastern locales.....but what do I know!

Still like that track...really not a huge difference between models....snow maps will keep changing. Thermals yes.....the latest run has about 3" in East Nantmeal and 8" just 19 miles up the road in Reading or an inch less on the K maps.

Having posted a backyard forecast from the old WXSIM module in a while. It now includes the European along with the GFS and NAM. For now it has 4" to 6" - not buying it's temps they have been running too warm lately. Saturday: Mostly cloudy to cloudy in the morning, becoming dense overcast in the afternoon. Patchy light fog in the afternoon. A slight chance of snow in the morning, then a mix of snow and rain likely in the afternoon. High 39. Wind east-southeast around 3 mph in the morning, becoming 6 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation 60 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly around a quarter of an inch. Snow accumulation about an inch. Maximum snow level 300 feet above ground. Saturday night: Dense overcast. Patchy light fog after midnight. Snow likely in the evening, then a chance of a mix of snow, sleet, and rain after midnight. Low 32. Wind chill ranging from 25 to 31. Wind east around 7 mph. Chance of precipitation 80 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly between half an inch and one inch. Snow or ice (on ground) accumulation 3 to 5 inches.

Love your professional thoughts! Thanks!! I suspect elevation will help out as it always does in these more marginal temp events. Thanks again and smooth travels to you!

From JB for those that know who he is "I said I like 3-6 for the city cause the fight is in the I-95 corridor. I think that goes all the way down to DC. 20 miles northwest its snow and 6-12. the US 6 cities from Hartford to PVD and up to BOS I think are all snow. The best lollypop over 12 or more is Garrett County Poconos and Catskills. (duh) and a host of places in southern New England since the second max coming in while the easterly flow is going likely means after heavy snow shuts off, it continues to snow" Stunned to see JB going for so much snow (not)

Latest NBM continues trend of reducing model snow totals

NBM continues trend of reducing model snow totals

Below is a link for a recap and snow reports - some huge amounts in there from that event. https://www.weather.gov/phi/EventReview20210201

No....I think we had 3 of them back in 2021 with our last trio of significant snow events: Jan 30-Feb 2 (17.0") Feb 7 (8.8") Feb 19 (7.5")

A frosty start to our morning across the county. Lows have ranged from as low as 21.1 in Warwick Twp. to as high as 27.9 in Atglen. The next couple of days should continue to be seasonably cold with highs near 40 degrees in most spots. We turn colder on Friday and Saturday with temps struggling to get much above the low 30's. Today marks the 662nd straight day (since March 12, 2022) that we will fail to record 1.0" of snow this breaks the old record of 661 days from February 24, 1972 till December 16, 1973. Of note during that time back in 1972-73 we measured no snow at all. That record will remain in place as we have actually recorded 9 days during this time frame with measurable snow of greater than 0.2". We only went 278 days between measurable snow here in East Nantmeal from March 12, 2022 till December 15, 2022 - when we recorded 0.5" of snow. However, it does look increasingly likely that we will record at least 1" of snow on Saturday the 6th. In fact the NWS at PHL/Mount Holly has placed Western Chester County in the zone of best chance for accumulating snow. This is still not a forecast so stay tuned.

A frosty start to our morning across the county. Lows have ranged from as low as 21.1 in Warwick Twp. to as high as 27.9 in Atglen. The next couple of days should continue to be seasonably cold with highs near 40 degrees in most spots. We turn colder on Friday and Saturday with temps struggling to get much above the low 30's. Today marks the 662nd straight day (since March 12, 2022) that we will fail to record 1.0" of snow this breaks the old record of 661 days from February 24, 1972 till December 16, 1973. Of note during that time back in 1972-73 we measured no snow at all. That record will remain in place as we have actually recorded 9 days during this time frame with measurable snow of greater than 0.2". We only went 278 days between measurable snow here in East Nantmeal from March 12, 2022 till December 15, 2022 - when we recorded 0.5" of snow. However, it does look increasingly likely that we will record at least 1" of snow on Saturday the 6th. In fact the NWS at PHL/Mount Holly has placed Western Chester County in the zone of best chance for accumulating snow. This is still not a forecast so stay tuned.

I have often thought this variable is often overstated. I take a look at 925mb temps above the surface to see if there is a modeled warm layer coming in. You can see below this is about the greatest inroads of above 0c (at least on the GFS model) That said it is just a model!!

I think that is honestly a solid forecast from this vantage point!!

So true! Tomorrow we set the record snow futility streak in Chester County with our 662nd consecutive day without recording 1" of snow.....

Elevation FTW

This is why I suspect the models are picking up on the impact of a little elevation above the fall line in some of the model snow forecasts. Elevation can make quite the difference in marginal storms. I have often seen my area get near 10:1 ratios above 650 ft asl while down at 350 ft it is mainly white rain

If I were in the LV to SC PA I would be real confident you have a plowable event in your future....for those of us in the more southern climes....time will tell!!

Wait till the Friday 0z NAM pulls the snow geese all back in.......

The latest models look like the classic storms of my youth in Philly. 1" to 3" in Philly and 3" to 5" N and W