ChescoWx

Great books!

I am considering authoring the definitive "Everything You Wanted to Know About the Unique and Dynamic Climate of Chester County PA In the Philadelphia Suburbs" Is the title too long? Is $14.90 the right price? So many questions....

Cecily Tynan posted a stat last night on the news for the PHL Airport that winters have warmed almost 5 degrees in the last 50 years (see below) So of course I had to go back and do the analysis for 120 years for Chester County. To remove any bias of any one reporting station I used an average of all 8 available NWS COOP sites (with no less than 4 and as many as 8 sites) to see if on average our winters (DJF) have really warmed by almost 5 degrees? The answer of course away from PHL is a clear NO for the Chester County philly burbs! In fact from 90 years ago the most recent decade winters were actually 0.5 degrees colder Quote

Looking at November averages by Decade since the 1890's indicate with the most recently completed full decade (2010's) that we may indeed be heading back to a cooler cycle. Of note in ranking all decades since the 1890's - 5 of the 8 warmest November decades occurred in Chester County prior to the 1940's. With the exception of the very warm 2000's some very consistent readings with the 1900's and 2010's almost exactly the same

November stats below - on top of being the 64th coldest (+10th below normal in last 15 years) it was the 16th driest on record since 1894. Warmest day 69.2 (18th) - coldest 26.9 (24th)

I see ABE reported their 18th coldest November in 90 years of records. Here in Chesco only good for 64th coldest in 128 years of records....but of note this is now the 10th below normal November in the last 15 years!! November is looking like our peak of cold season departure months during our current phase of cyclical climate change

30% chance tonight in the NW burbs....

don't remember seeing that a pronounced southern stream feature on the earlier Euro runs....interesting!

ICON with a more southern view - GFS gives Western Chesco 1 to 2" - growing consensus of some light snow accumulations - not a common occurrence in these parts....in November

Beautiful day across the area albeit a bit chillier than normal. Of note this morning's low of 28.6 here in East Nantmeal was our coldest since the 26.3 back on April 3rd. The 30.2 in Sea Isle City NJ was the coldest and only the 2nd below freezing low this season. The 1st was last Saturday at exactly 32 degrees. Happy Holiday week to all!!

Looks increasingly likely we will finish with below normal temps for November - this would be the 7th below normal November in the last 10 years here in NW Chesco. However, maybe a nice warm up to start December??

Hi Kamu - 69.2 to be precise

1st flurries already happened here in the NW burbs....1st measurable guess is December 15th

Beautiful day here in NW Chesco!! Today was the warmest temperature recorded on this date since the 69 degrees we recorded back in 1963 - but still well short of all-time warmest temp on this day which was 77 degrees way back in 1896. Cold front has now passed and the temp is down 7 degrees in the past hour down to 50.9 now

We did see our 1st snow flakes of the year overnight and this morning here in NW Chesco. Now while November is certainly not a snowy month - we average only 1.2" of snow. We have had some significant (+6") storms during the month. Of note just 3 years ago on November 15 into the 16th we picked up 7.3" of snow - our top 5 snowstorms in November were: November 15, 1906 (9.5") November 6, 1953 (8.6") November 15-16, 2018 (7.3") November 26, 1938 (7.0") November 4, 1910 (6.6")

Might see our 1st flakes of the season tonight and again before dawn tomorrow - especially in the higher spots in Western Chester County....

Total rain 0.70" in bucket and 0.56" - Tempest and 0.52" on Vantage Pro

Out here in the NW burbs we average 36" of snow per winter (same as Chicago IL for good coffee table conversation) - I am thinking a quick start and strong finish with near average snowfall but unlike the last couple years a period of well below temps in December and February

Beautiful day across the area - our normal high today is 55.9

his morning's low's across Chester County ranged from the mid-20's in some lower valley spots to the low 30's higher up on the ridges. Here in East Nantmeal our low of 32.1 was our 4th straight morning with below freezing temps. Here in Chester County you need to go back 19 years to 2002 to find the last time 4 or more days had freezing temps during the first seven days of November.

Through the first 5 days of the month - this is the 22nd coldest start to November across 127 Novembers of record here in Chester County PA

A transitory warming as by next weekend we start a well below normal stretch....

So does what happens in Novembers the winter shall remember? For Western Chester County PA - At least in terms of top 20 extreme Temperatures in November the analysis shows that 70% of coldest Novembers resulted in below normal subsequent winter temps and around normal snowfall. While the top 20 warm Novembers indicate a 70% chance of warmer than normal winters with below normal snow totals.