ChescoWx

A pretty typical early December week with temperatures below normal early week to above normal by next weekend. The next chance of rain will not be till Sunday. Records for today: High 71 (1998) / Low 6 (1940) / Rain 1.54" (1900) / Snow 10.0" (1957)

A pretty typical early December week with temperatures below normal early week to above normal by next weekend. The next chance of rain will not be till Sunday. Records for today: High 71 (1998) / Low 6 (1940) / Rain 1.54" (1900) / Snow 10.0" (1957)

Since we are starting the first winter month I thought I would give you my annual attempt at a winter forecast for Chester County PA. Take this for what it is worth as the last 3 years I have done this have been totally and completely wrong! I will show you my methodology for the forecast below. You will see below that the fall season (September thru November) here in Chester County has overall since the 1890's shown a clear cooling pattern...however, during our current warming cycle since 1970 we have seen a clear warming pattern. Overall this Fall has averaged 54.9 degrees which is the 50th warmest Fall since 1894. I decided to use the surrounding 20 fall seasons using from the 30th warmest to the 70th warmest fall average temperatures. I compared those to the upcoming winter and came up with the following forecast base on our fall temperatures this year. Average Temperature will be 32.1 degrees this is 0.9 degrees below our 30 year average. Total snowfall will be between 28" to 37" our 30 year average is 36.3" in the county. I put a range here as the ranges for the analog years I used go from the 86.6" of snow we received in 2009-10 to as little as the 2.7" from just last year. For your coffee table conversation the annual average snowfall for Chicago IL is only a couple inches more than Chesco at 38"....who knew Chesco was almost as snowy as Chicago? So there it is! What do you think? How wrong will I be this year? Enjoy!

Since we are starting the first winter month I thought I would give you my annual attempt at a winter forecast for Chester County PA. Take this for what it is worth as the last 3 years I have done this have been totally and completely wrong! I will show you my methodology for the forecast below. You will see below that the fall season (September thru November) here in Chester County has overall since the 1890's shown a clear cooling pattern...however, during our current warming cycle since 1970 we have seen a clear warming pattern. Overall this Fall has averaged 54.9 degrees which is the 50th warmest Fall since 1894. I decided to use the surrounding 20 fall seasons using from the 30th warmest to the 70th warmest fall average temperatures. I compared those to the upcoming winter and came up with the following forecast base on our fall temperatures this year. Average Temperature will be 32.1 degrees this is 0.9 degrees below our 30 year average. Total snowfall will be between 28" to 37" our 30 year average is 36.3" in the county. I put a range here as the ranges for the analog years I used go from the 86.6" of snow we received in 2009-10 to as little as the 2.7" from just last year. For your coffee table conversation the annual average snowfall for Chicago IL is only a couple inches more than Chesco at 38"....who knew Chesco was almost as snowy as Chicago? So there it is! What do you think? How wrong will I be this year? Enjoy!

Some rain totals across the county since midnight - Glenmoore 0.89" / East Nantmeal Twp, 0.53" / Atglen 0.43" / Warwick Twp. 0.48" / West Brandywine Twp. 0.41" Most of the steady rain. Cloudy day with temperatures only rising a couple degrees from the near 50 degrees we are currently at across much of the area. We should have temps near normal for much of the week before rising a bit above normal by next weekend before colder again for next week. There is a slight chance of some snow flurries on Tuesday night but otherwise a mainly dry week. Records for today: High 69 (1998) / Low 9 (1976) / Rain 1.12" (1905) / Snow 5.2" (1907)

Some rain totals across the county since midnight - Glenmoore 0.89" / East Nantmeal Twp, 0.53" / Atglen 0.43" / Warwick Twp. 0.48" / West Brandywine Twp. 0.41" Most of the steady rain. Cloudy day with temperatures only rising a couple degrees from the near 50 degrees we are currently at across much of the area. We should have temps near normal for much of the week before rising a bit above normal by next weekend before colder again for next week. There is a slight chance of some snow flurries on Tuesday night but otherwise a mainly dry week. Records for today: High 69 (1998) / Low 9 (1976) / Rain 1.12" (1905) / Snow 5.2" (1907)

Today looks great for getting out there a putting up your Christmas Lights (I will). It will be mild with temperatures almost 10 degreees above normal in the upper 50's. Rain will move back in tonight toward midnight and last till early tomorrow afternoon. Colder air moves in starting Monday and will last through the week. Records for today: High 65 (1962) / Low 8 (1976) / Rain 1.13" (1986) / Snow 4.5" (1903)

Today looks great for getting out there a putting up your Christmas Lights (I will). It will be mild with temperatures almost 10 degreees above normal in the upper 50's. Rain will move back in tonight toward midnight and last till early tomorrow afternoon. Colder air moves in starting Monday and will last through the week. Records for today: High 65 (1962) / Low 8 (1976) / Rain 1.13" (1986) / Snow 4.5" (1903)

Large range of temps this morning across the county with lower spots down into the mid-20's while the ridge locations stayed above freezing. Today should be close to normal high temps for the first day of December before a milder than normal weekend followed by a return to below normal temps next week. It looks like rain will overspread the area from SW to NE over the 3pm hour today and be over by 1am Saturday morning. More showers by Sunday AM but we should see a drier PM before more showers at night. Records for today: High 70.9 (2006) / Low 7 (1967) / Rain 1.80" (1996) / Snow 0.5" (1907)

Large range of temps this morning across the county with lower spots down into the mid-20's while the ridge locations stayed above freezing. Today should be close to normal high temps for the first day of December before a milder than normal weekend followed by a return to below normal temps next week. It looks like rain will overspread the area from SW to NE over the 3pm hour today and be over by 1am Saturday morning. More showers by Sunday AM but we should see a drier PM before more showers at night. Records for today: High 70.9 (2006) / Low 7 (1967) / Rain 1.80" (1996) / Snow 0.5" (1907)

We finished November as our 4th below average temperature month in the last 7 months. This followed the above normal 1st 4 months of 2023. Of note through the first 11 months of the year our average temperature has been 54.6 degrees. This is the 10th coldest year in the last 20 years here in East Nantmeal and the 46th warmest November YTD since records began 130 years ago in 1894. The Top 10 warmest years through November Year to Date were:

We finished November as our 4th below average temperature month in the last 7 months. This followed the above normal 1st 4 months of 2023. Of note through the first 11 months of the year our average temperature has been 54.6 degrees. This is the 10th coldest year in the last 20 years here in East Nantmeal and the 46th warmest November YTD since records began 130 years ago in 1894. The Top 10 warmest years through November Year to Date were:

Some valley spots in the county made it down into the teens this morning. Today should be a great late fall day with temperatures just a little below normal for the last day of November. Saturday and Sunday look to be the only above normal temps over at least the next week. However, with the exception of Saturday (looks dry) during the day there could be showers almost anytime from Friday night through Sunday evening. Cold and dry weather returns by Monday. Records for today: High 72 (1933) / Low 9 (1976) / Rain 2.51" (2020) / Snow 6.0" (1967)

Following our 1st measurable snow "event" of the season this morning's low of 20.8 was our coldest reading since way back on February 4th when the low was 9.8 degrees above zero. A couple more colder than normal days will close out the Month of November and we will finish this November as the coldest one so far this decade with our chilliest since 2019. We should start a nice warming trend by the weekend with temps getting back to a little above normal but expect rain to move in on Friday afternoon but clear out by Saturday. There is a chance at more rain by Sunday night. Records for today: High 68 (1991) / Low 10 (1930) / Rain 2.84" (1987) / Snow 3.7" (1995)

Following our 1st measurable snow "event" of the season this morning's low of 20.8 was our coldest reading since way back on February 4th when the low was 9.8 degrees above zero. A couple more colder than normal days will close out the Month of November and we will finish this November as the coldest one so far this decade with our chilliest since 2019. We should start a nice warming trend by the weekend with temps getting back to a little above normal but expect rain to move in on Friday afternoon but clear out by Saturday. There is a chance at more rain by Sunday night. Records for today: High 68 (1991) / Low 10 (1930) / Rain 2.84" (1987) / Snow 3.7" (1995)

Between the 6th and 8th circles of hell climate change has been clearly muted......with temps remaining between 50 to 80 centigrade since AD 318. There was a brief noted chilling around 33 AD

Temps continue to fall here now down to 31.6 a few occasional flurries are flying but suspect the squalls to the west should weaken as they come down this way later

All that said I don't think that anyone including ClimateChanger should be banned or suspended. He presents actual verified data as far as I have ever seen. I appreciate his efforts!!

I simply present data and whether or not climate change is real or imagined is way beyond my pay grade. I only report un-adjusted climate data for my area - full stop!

Does TheClimateChanger have an agenda....would never know it by his screen name....

This is the first measurable November snow in East Nantmeal in 5 years....the last measurable November snow was the 7.3" on Nov 15-16, 2018

We are on the board with our 1st winter event of the year 0.3" of snow here in East Nantmeal Twp.

We are in the books with our 1st measurable 0.3" on the board from the briefly heavy snow squall

Thanks Blizzard! If it helps others I am only 6 miles from the Lancaster County border line.....