ChescoWx

A couple beautiful mild mid December days on tap before the big rainstorm arrives Sunday PM. The storm Sunday into Monday could bring us one of our biggest rain events in quite a while. Some of the latest models are hinting at between 3" to 5" of rain across much of the area. It will be very mild through the storm with cold air coming back as the storm departs on Monday night. We could see some snow showers with the colder air by Tuesday. Christmas week looks seasonably cold and in fact the remainder of the year looks to remain normal to below average temperatures as we close out the year.

12z Canadian also some Christmas week model snow

12z Euro model also trying to make some spots a little white...

Thank you Anthony! Just so you understand I get zero profit for more followers(or any $$ at all for this page)....for my efforts and daily climate data analysis.... but clearly both from the number of followers and the overwhelming level of support and messages I receive from these members. They really appreciate the effort I put into the local focused real world climate data and insights I share for the county they live in. I could never have believed it would become so popular!!

I guess if you can't read the qualifier at the top of that FB page "NOTE: ALL MAPS POSTED ON THIS SITE ARE NOT A FORECAST! THEY ARE ONLY GUIDANCE FOR ACTUAL FORECASTS. PLEASE GO TO THE NWS PHILADELPHIA FOR THE ACTUAL FORECAST. Along with the clear qualifier yet again "This is Not a Forecast" in the post with the map.....then sure ya might find it sickening....but then there might be other issues at play there!! LOL!!!

Agreed!! Nothing worse than folks who post model maps on Facebook without any context or qualifiers of what the difference is between a model output map vs. a forecast by professionals like the National Weather Service!!

The do call me Positive Paul....in some circles!

I always say give me the storm track to the east and I will take my chances with marginal cold that we see some snow.....

Couple observations....interesting to see a true gulf low with this next system. Did not see many of those the last couple winters. Down the road I suspect this could open us up for some potential snowstorms along the east coast. I see the 12z ICON trying to spin something up on Tuesday night into Wednesday morning....get your snowblowers ready!!!

Not really true.....wet bulb temps at night will be almost perfect for snow making all of next week once past the Monday storm. With the low December sun angle and high temps in the mountains no higher than the mid 30's from the 20th on. While not perfect there will be plenty of good runs available just in time for the holiday. Now if this was the blowtorch of 2015....different story.

Colder today with many spots in the county struggling to escape the 30's for high temps today. Warmer over the weekend with a pretty big Nor'easter coming up the coast by Sunday evening. The track will be too far inland or close to the coast to allow for anything but rain. Although we could see some snow flurries by Monday night. Temps will fall back to near normal levels for December for much of next week. Records for today: High 65 (2015) / Low 4 (1989) / Rain 2.06" (1897) / Snow 8.7" (1917)

Colder today with many spots in the county struggling to escape the 30's for high temps today. Warmer over the weekend with a pretty big Nor'easter coming up the coast by Sunday evening. The track will be too far inland or close to the coast to allow for anything but rain. Although we could see some snow flurries by Monday night. Temps will fall back to near normal levels for December for much of next week. Records for today: High 65 (2015) / Low 4 (1989) / Rain 2.06" (1897) / Snow 8.7" (1917)

We should see a dry and seasonably cold week ahead with below normal temperatures to start the week moderating to above normal by the weekend. Records for today: High 68 (1897) / Low 2 (1968) / Rain 1.95" (2002) / Snow 9.0" (1960)

We should see a dry and seasonably cold week ahead with below normal temperatures to start the week moderating to above normal by the weekend. Records for today: High 68 (1897) / Low 2 (1968) / Rain 1.95" (2002) / Snow 9.0" (1960)

Rain changed to snow about 330am with 0.8" of snow so far here in East Nantmeal

Rain changed to snow about 330am with 0.8" of snow so far here in East Nantmeal

0.37" of rain so far here in East Nantmeal temp at high for the day at 58.4....may pop up another couple degrees before the cold front starts to cross the county during the 7pm hour. Temps should fall pretty quickly back into the 40's

Except for Euro which slightly increased snow totals for the western burbs....

Euro Kuchera also increased snow totals with this run

Euro increased snow totals from 6z run to 12z run here in the western burbs

Rain should be spreading in from the west by late this morning. The models still show a transition to snow from west to east across the area before dawn tomorrow. Both the NAM and the NWS are focused on the higher elevations here in Western Chester, Western Montgomery and Berks Counties for the best chance of an accumulation. Both the NAM and GFS are model in the 3" to 4" amounts for these areas. However, the NWS has only up to 1" possible in these areas. The limiting factor will be temperatures which should remain above freezing in all areas so while I am sure there will be some accumulation where it does snow on unpaved surfaces...unless the rates are heavy enough any issues on the road look slight.

Rain should be spreading in from the west by late this morning. The models still show a transition to snow from west to east across the area before dawn tomorrow. Both the NAM and the NWS are focused on the higher elevations here in Western Chester, Western Montgomery and Berks Counties for the best chance of an accumulation. Both the NAM and GFS are model in the 3" to 4" amounts for these areas. However, the NWS has only up to 1" possible in these areas. The limiting factor will be temperatures which should remain above freezing in all areas so while I am sure there will be some accumulation where it does snow on unpaved surfaces...unless the rates are heavy enough any issues on the road look slight.

Elevation.....will be the only way this accumulates IMHO....

You have been NAMmed...6" over East Nantmeal and points NE....book it!!

Interesting that it never went below freezing during the event