ChescoWx

Final total in East Nantmeal Twp in Chester County PA was 4.3" of snow

As of 345am in East Nantmeal Twp Snow so far 3.0" (2.5" since 1am) Moderate Snow

As of 1am up to 0.5" in East Nantmeal Twp in NW Chesco with steady but not even moderate snow.

Snow has really picked up here over the last 15 minutes - appears we will not be totally shut out this year....

Still have a shot here in NW Chester County with no measurable yet this season....can we do it??

Some very light pixie dust snow continues to fall here in East Nantmeal with the temp down to 27.8 - just a fine dusting at most so far

Not much virga with this one - flakes are now reaching the ground here in NW Chester County

I should point out that Bernie Rayno thinks the models are missing what he calls "sneaky snow" to the N and W of Philly....we shall see

For those that have missed this the WXSIM with 10:1 and 0.46" of w.e. predicts 2.5" to 4.5" of snow with it's actual snow depth forecast of 4.1" - that said if we actually did get 0.46" of liquid...we will see near 6" of snow here in NW Chesco. Tonight: Mostly cloudy to cloudy in the evening, becoming dense overcast after midnight. Patchy light fog after midnight. A slight chance of snow in the evening, then snow likely after midnight. Low 25. Wind chill ranging from 19 to 31. Wind north near calm in the evening, becoming 4 mph after midnight. Chance of precipitation 70 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly between a quarter and half an inch. Snow accumulation 2 to 4 inches. Friday: Mostly cloudy in the morning, becoming mostly sunny in the afternoon. Patchy light fog in the morning. A chance of snow. High 30. Wind chill around 18. Wind northwest around 8 mph, gusting to 18 mph, in the morning, becoming 11 mph, gusting to 21 mph, in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation 50 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly around a tenth of an inch. Snow accumulation about half an inch.

While our upcoming snow event will not be a significant snowstorm ..I thought it might be interesting to review the Top 10 January snowstorms in Chester County PA History. Of note 3 of the top 10 have all occurred since 1995 1. 1905 JAN 25 29.0" 2. 1996 JAN 8 28.9" 3. 2016 JAN 23 26.0" 4. 1922 JAN 29 26.0" 5. 1928 JAN 29 20.0" 6. 2011 JAN 27 16.0" 7. 1910 JAN 15 15.0" 8. 1978 JAN 20 15.0" 9. 1966 JAN 30 14.0" 10. 1961 JAN 19 13.0"

I do think the Kutchera totals like the below on the 18z may be a bit more accurate as N and W of the city temps will be in the low to mid-20's so ratios will be higher

Just posted by Mt Holly ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THURSDAY TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY... * WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 4 inches. * WHERE...Portions of central, northern, northwest and southern New Jersey, southeast Pennsylvania, northeast Maryland and central and northern Delaware. * WHEN...From 10 PM Thursday to 10 AM EST Friday.

That is the CTP area - Mt Holly always posts theirs later in the 3pm hour or so...

I think most will get on the board with a measurable event between 0.5" to 3.0"

I have really been liking the National Blend of Models runs - below is the latest from 12z

Hardly a flake here....but down in Sea Isle City

An occasional flake here in NW Chesco temp 29.4

Think folks get excited by snow? my Chester County Weather Facebook page has picked up almost 500 folks since 8am this morning!! I can't keep up with the new add requests!

I suspect we should see the EURO shift more to the southeast with the 12z run

Agreed! This will make for some excellent radar hallucinations!!

As you and I know well...analogs can only carry us so far....weather will do what it chooses to do!!

Just asking as we need to do a lot of rigorous testing and p-value analysis like I have done with the Chester County data to ensure it is valid and comparable between stations following observation location movements

What combined sources do you use for your data??

2021 Climate Summary for East Nantmeal Township in Chester County PA