ChescoWx

With today's high temperature of 19.6 at midnight today was the 1st day with a high temperature remaining in the teens in almost 3 years. The last such day was on February 1, 2019 when we only recorded a high temp of 17.6

For longer ranges I always rely on the Ensemble runs.....likely the European mean run from 12z is more realistic - keeping in mind some pretty solid cold for the remainder of the month...in my humble view

Agreed 100% - if I were forecasting for my area I would say at most 2" and likely not even an inch of snow and IP before a quick change to rain....but I am just a simple hobbyist!

WXSIM for East Nantmeal Twp with 12z data Sunday night: Dense overcast. A mix of snow and sleet likely in the evening, then a mix of freezing rain, sleet, rain, and snow likely after midnight. Breezy. Low 26, but temperatures rising after midnight. Wind chill ranging from 15 to 26. Wind east-northeast around 10 mph, gusting to 17 mph, in the evening, becoming 16 mph, gusting to 22 mph, after midnight. Chance of precipitation 80 percent. Snow or ice (on ground) accumulation 3 to 5 inches. Above-ground freezing rain accumulation up to 0.6 inches. Monday: Dense overcast. A mix of snow, rain, and sleet likely in the morning, then a slight chance of snow in the afternoon. Breezy. High 34. Wind chill around 23. Wind southwest around 11 mph, gusting to 18 mph, in the morning, becoming 17 mph, gusting to 28 mph, in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation 80 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly around a quarter of an inch. Snow or ice (on ground) accumulation about half an inch.

Can't remember DT with a lot of forecasting success in recent winters....he used to be really good. I think he is like JB - tough for him to move off a forecast once it is out there

Euro at 12z

Looks like a storm from yesteryear. Snow to rain with some front end thumps. Of course this will change a few times between now and Sunday evening.

Low last evening of 12.3 was our coldest reading since the 6.6 low on February 2, 2019

Today's splits of 21.1 / 13.8. Our coldest AM low since the 12.0 on March 7, 2019 and the coldest maximum temperature since the 17.6 back on February 1, 2019

Happy Belated Birthday!! I hope it was a great one!! Paul

Up to 32.9 on VP and 32.5 on Tempest....drippage now

Ice accretion continues here in NW Chester County temp steady at 32.2 on VP and 31.8 on the Tempest - The NWS has extended the WWA for Western Chesco till 3pm

Looks like most folks in Western Chesco are still below freezing. Hopefully we warm up by noon as the NWS predicts for the county. As mentioned before it is usually a pretty slow slog in the relatively higher spots in the county like mine over 600 ft ASL -NWS has 41 here for the high...I will bet we stay in the 30's. Some light ice accretion continues

Looks like most folks in Western Chesco are still below freezing. Hopefully we warm up by noon as the NWS predicts for the county. As mentioned before it is usually a pretty slow slog in the relatively higher spots in the county like mine over 600 ft ASL -NWS has 41 here for the high...I will bet we stay in the 30's

ZR has begun here in NW Chester County in East Nantmeal temp at 30.5

I strongly suspected you were a troll early on....now we all know it - now go away and crawl back into the crevice from which you came!! Where are the admins to ban him? Thanks!! Paul

Hi Mike, I am so embarrassed that we have someone like LV Historian on this or any site. It was pretty clear early on he is the epitome of a troll. A true professional like you and all of the METS at the Mount Holly and surrounding offices have an incredibly difficult job and no matter what any troll may say is always and I mean always the #1 source of accurate unbiased and unweenified forecasts for this and any area!! Please ignore trolls like LV - I am hopeful the admins here will ban him and let's continue to appreciate the weather insights true professionals like you contribute to this site!! Thanks Mike for all you do!!

The great folks at the NWS Office in Mount Holly seem concerned...understanding of course if no precipitation reaches till later as some models depict...no worries - but best to be safe in these situations. I suspect in higher spots like here in NW Chesco it will be a slow slog to get temps to get much above freezing....of note even if surface temps do warm to slightly above freezing ice accretion will continue when coming off so many hours of below freezing conditions Unlike most warming winter precipitation events in our area, this one will begin from the deep freeze. This means that the impacts of freezing rain will likely be virtually immediate. Hazardous travel may develop very quickly once precipitation begins, which will be important to message for this event. Additionally, did expand the advisory to New Castle County (despite lower confidence on icing this far south), given the potential quick impacts to travel on the I-95 corridor in northern Delaware should freezing rain occur.

This morning's low of 14.9 was my coldest reading in East Nantmeal since the 11.6 back on February 15. 2020...couple colder mornings Tuesday and Wednesday,

My WXSIM software has the below - with a high of only 33.7 here in East Nantmeal - my current P&C has 39 degrees for the high. If I was a betting man I would go lower than 39 here tomorrow

Latest NAM has backed off a bit with impacts mainly to far western areas....we shall see

Western Chesco also....temps never warm as quickly in the higher spots with snow cover

2 m temps - my current P&C has 39....I will take the under!

Suspect we will once again see WWA posted from Mt. Holly for at the very least western portions of the area. With such a small gap for warming (before the arctic front) and with ample snow cover to the southwest (source of low level warming) and snow cover locally...I think any low level warming will be tough sledding (pardon the pun). Latest NAM certainly catching on to this.