ChescoWx

NBM continues trend of reducing model snow totals

Below is a link for a recap and snow reports - some huge amounts in there from that event. https://www.weather.gov/phi/EventReview20210201

No....I think we had 3 of them back in 2021 with our last trio of significant snow events: Jan 30-Feb 2 (17.0") Feb 7 (8.8") Feb 19 (7.5")

A frosty start to our morning across the county. Lows have ranged from as low as 21.1 in Warwick Twp. to as high as 27.9 in Atglen. The next couple of days should continue to be seasonably cold with highs near 40 degrees in most spots. We turn colder on Friday and Saturday with temps struggling to get much above the low 30's. Today marks the 662nd straight day (since March 12, 2022) that we will fail to record 1.0" of snow this breaks the old record of 661 days from February 24, 1972 till December 16, 1973. Of note during that time back in 1972-73 we measured no snow at all. That record will remain in place as we have actually recorded 9 days during this time frame with measurable snow of greater than 0.2". We only went 278 days between measurable snow here in East Nantmeal from March 12, 2022 till December 15, 2022 - when we recorded 0.5" of snow. However, it does look increasingly likely that we will record at least 1" of snow on Saturday the 6th. In fact the NWS at PHL/Mount Holly has placed Western Chester County in the zone of best chance for accumulating snow. This is still not a forecast so stay tuned.

A frosty start to our morning across the county. Lows have ranged from as low as 21.1 in Warwick Twp. to as high as 27.9 in Atglen. The next couple of days should continue to be seasonably cold with highs near 40 degrees in most spots. We turn colder on Friday and Saturday with temps struggling to get much above the low 30's. Today marks the 662nd straight day (since March 12, 2022) that we will fail to record 1.0" of snow this breaks the old record of 661 days from February 24, 1972 till December 16, 1973. Of note during that time back in 1972-73 we measured no snow at all. That record will remain in place as we have actually recorded 9 days during this time frame with measurable snow of greater than 0.2". We only went 278 days between measurable snow here in East Nantmeal from March 12, 2022 till December 15, 2022 - when we recorded 0.5" of snow. However, it does look increasingly likely that we will record at least 1" of snow on Saturday the 6th. In fact the NWS at PHL/Mount Holly has placed Western Chester County in the zone of best chance for accumulating snow. This is still not a forecast so stay tuned.

I have often thought this variable is often overstated. I take a look at 925mb temps above the surface to see if there is a modeled warm layer coming in. You can see below this is about the greatest inroads of above 0c (at least on the GFS model) That said it is just a model!!

I think that is honestly a solid forecast from this vantage point!!

So true! Tomorrow we set the record snow futility streak in Chester County with our 662nd consecutive day without recording 1" of snow.....

Elevation FTW

This is why I suspect the models are picking up on the impact of a little elevation above the fall line in some of the model snow forecasts. Elevation can make quite the difference in marginal storms. I have often seen my area get near 10:1 ratios above 650 ft asl while down at 350 ft it is mainly white rain

If I were in the LV to SC PA I would be real confident you have a plowable event in your future....for those of us in the more southern climes....time will tell!!

Wait till the Friday 0z NAM pulls the snow geese all back in.......

The latest models look like the classic storms of my youth in Philly. 1" to 3" in Philly and 3" to 5" N and W

At hour 108 low over NNC.....

Again a bit more realistic in my view to use the ensemble means

Of course - as it gets closer I prefer the positive snow depth view....

Very similar runs between the GFS and Canadian

The NBM not a bad place to start IMHO at this distance from the event

Most spots across the county fell below freezing either last night or overnight today. Our first below freezing reading since December 23rd. The first week of the new year should be mainly dry through Friday and seasonably chilly. The coldest day will be Friday when temps may struggle to pass freezing in some of the higher spots in the county. Records for today: High 62 (2000) / Low minus 7 (1899) / Rain 2.09" (1948) / Snow 9.0" (1925)

Most spots across the county fell below freezing either last night or overnight today. Our first below freezing reading since December 23rd. The first week of the new year should be mainly dry through Friday and seasonably chilly. The coldest day will be Friday when temps may struggle to pass freezing in some of the higher spots in the county. Records for today: High 62 (2000) / Low minus 7 (1899) / Rain 2.09" (1948) / Snow 9.0" (1925)

Ensemble runs are what I focus on this far out....