ChescoWx

Sorry Kevin! Me still thinks the streak ends before this month shall pass!! It ain't the last 2 years in my humble opinion!!! Hang in there!!

Some current Official NWS Snow Forecasted amounts for Chester County PA East Nantmeal 1.0" to 2.5" Honey Brook 1.0" to 2.5" Elverson - 1.0" to 2.5" Exton PA 0.5" to 1.0" Malvern 0.5" to 1.0" West Chester 0.5" to 1.0" Chadds Ford - Little or no snow accumulation Kennett Square - Little or no snow accumulation Oxford - Little or no snow accumulation

We saw 9.3" from that one in NW Chesco....

NAM as expected does what it does throws up a NW Chester County through Montgomery County special....

I supect a NAMMING either at 18z or 0Z

Euro Ensemble not too far from the OP

Latest GFS doubles snowfall from prior run down into Northern Chester County.

Today should be a nice day but will feel colder this PM as winds increase from the NW. Colder tonight and tomorrow with temps struggling to escape the low to mid 30's tomorrow. Snow should arrive by midday on Saturday with the best chance of any minor accumulations before the turn to rain being further west and north across the area. Dry and seasonable to start the new work week but snow looks to arrive again on Tuesday before quickly changing to rain. That storm could be quite impactful with heavy rain and wind across the entire area. Records for today: High 67 (1950) / 3 below zero (1918) / Rain 1.55" (1944) / Snow 4.5" (1905)

Today should be a nice day but will feel colder this PM as winds increase from the NW. Colder tonight and tomorrow with temps struggling to escape the low to mid 30's tomorrow. Snow should arrive by midday on Saturday with the best chance of any minor accumulations before the turn to rain being further west and north across the area. Dry and seasonable to start the new work week but snow looks to arrive again on Tuesday before quickly changing to rain. That storm could be quite impactful with heavy rain and wind across the entire area. Records for today: High 67 (1950) / 3 below zero (1918) / Rain 1.55" (1944) / Snow 4.5" (1905)

Generally when I see a low track like that in January I expect snow to the N and W of the track at least 50 miles away from the ocean. That said there are other factors at play (mid levels etc.) it will not be an easy forecast and expect some more wild swings before we get to a solid forecast by Friday PM.

At least on the GFS below is the northern extent and time of the upper air 0c at both 850mb and 925mb. The modeled torch reaches about as far North as the PA Turnpike....

I look at the NAM but cannot take it seriously until less than 24 hours before game time

If I was making a forecast right now for Chester County I would go 4" to 6" for Western Chesco and 3" to 5" for Eastern locales.....but what do I know!

Still like that track...really not a huge difference between models....snow maps will keep changing. Thermals yes.....the latest run has about 3" in East Nantmeal and 8" just 19 miles up the road in Reading or an inch less on the K maps.

Having posted a backyard forecast from the old WXSIM module in a while. It now includes the European along with the GFS and NAM. For now it has 4" to 6" - not buying it's temps they have been running too warm lately. Saturday: Mostly cloudy to cloudy in the morning, becoming dense overcast in the afternoon. Patchy light fog in the afternoon. A slight chance of snow in the morning, then a mix of snow and rain likely in the afternoon. High 39. Wind east-southeast around 3 mph in the morning, becoming 6 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation 60 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly around a quarter of an inch. Snow accumulation about an inch. Maximum snow level 300 feet above ground. Saturday night: Dense overcast. Patchy light fog after midnight. Snow likely in the evening, then a chance of a mix of snow, sleet, and rain after midnight. Low 32. Wind chill ranging from 25 to 31. Wind east around 7 mph. Chance of precipitation 80 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly between half an inch and one inch. Snow or ice (on ground) accumulation 3 to 5 inches.

Love your professional thoughts! Thanks!! I suspect elevation will help out as it always does in these more marginal temp events. Thanks again and smooth travels to you!

From JB for those that know who he is "I said I like 3-6 for the city cause the fight is in the I-95 corridor. I think that goes all the way down to DC. 20 miles northwest its snow and 6-12. the US 6 cities from Hartford to PVD and up to BOS I think are all snow. The best lollypop over 12 or more is Garrett County Poconos and Catskills. (duh) and a host of places in southern New England since the second max coming in while the easterly flow is going likely means after heavy snow shuts off, it continues to snow" Stunned to see JB going for so much snow (not)

Latest NBM continues trend of reducing model snow totals