ChescoWx

More sleet mixing back in with the ZR here in NW Chesco but....good news is temp is up to 28.1

Temp up to 28.0 let's hope we rise faster than some of the models are showing....steady ZR temp

Of note my Davis rooftop anemometer has already frozen however the Tempest station on the roof without moving parts continues to work...winds have swung around from the SE to the NE over the last 15 minutes - temp at 27.9

Temp continues to fall steadily with the onset of precipitation here in NW Chesco....temp is down to 27.5 DP 23.9. Mainly ZR here with sleet mixing in from time to time. My deck and walk is already very icy.

Some light snow flurries just started here in East Nantmeal temp at 31.0

East Nantmeal Twp in Chester County Cloudy 31.0 DP 19.1 Wind SE 2 mph

18z for what it's worth backed off a bit more on frozen...of note however is it looks to be running a 2 to 3 degrees too warm vs the actual temps this PM

Most models are in pretty good agreement around ice amount for north and west of the city - including 12z Euro

Light snow here in NW Chesco with a temp at 30.3

A couple flakes and a few ice pellets starting here in East Nantmeal temp at 29.1

Skew T from Wxsim at 3am with heavy sleet at East Nantmeal

Wxsim forecast for East Nantmeal and a view of the output by hour from the program - showing some heavy sleet toward morning This afternoon: Dense overcast. A slight chance of snow. High 39. Wind east-northeast near calm. Chance of precipitation 20 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly less than a tenth of an inch. No snow accumulation expected. Maximum snow level 100 feet above ground. Tonight: Dense overcast. A chance of a mix of snow and sleet in the evening, then sleet likely after midnight. Low 30. Wind east around 2 mph. Chance of precipitation 80 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly between half an inch and one inch. Snow or ice (on ground) accumulation about an inch. Friday: Dense overcast in the morning, becoming mostly cloudy to cloudy in the afternoon. A mix of sleet, freezing rain, rain, and snow likely in the morning, then a slight chance of rain in the afternoon. High 40. Wind east around 3 mph in the morning, becoming west around 9 mph, gusting to 20 mph, in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation 80 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly between half an inch and one inch. Little or no snow or ice (on ground) accumulation expected. Above-ground freezing rain accumulation up to 0.2 inches.

12z NAM has continued to reduce the amount of precipitation. But does have a little snow/sleet mix across much of Chester County early this PM

28.0 degrees here in East Nantmeal DP 16.0 with the wind from the North - still expect all models to lessen the overall precip with the 12z runs this AM....I am however watching the HRRR radar depiction for some frozen across Chester County starting later this AM (see below)

Agreed! I bet it will go with a little more sleet and less ZR before all is said and done - especially out here in NW Chester County...

Absolutely!! from my experience it is by far the best in these ZR potential situations.....

Agreed 100% our Mt. Holly team is tops!! - folks like me can look at maps till they are blue in the face....but the 1st place I go for the real forecast is NWS Mt. Holly.....all the models we post are simple guidance for the professionals like Mike and the Team to take into account when they make a professional forecast.

Our high today before the cold front which just went through was 66.8 degrees. This the warmest temperature since the 69.2 on November 18th. The all-time record high for this date which is 71.6 just 5 years ago in 2017.

If the below as depicted by the Euro was close to reality....that would be an ice storm warning...but I am not biting

As expected the GFS continues a trend toward the less icy NAM solution

It's just better with overrunning events and picking out frozen vs not etc.....I suspect the others will start moving it's way by 12z tomorrow

18z NAM still not in the same camp as the others....

If it comes back and sticks....I would be all in - either way let's see where this shakes out by the 12z runs tomorrow AM

Unless the NAM begins to show this I am not biting on the idea of any significant icing until you are North of the Lehigh Valley.....The European has had a lot of problems this year at this range.

No need for snow blower IMHO. I think there will be very little snow with this one until north of the Lehigh Valley. While the cold air will drill in at the low levels the warming aloft will have no barriers. I like the NAM depiction of lack of snow....it is usually best in these CAD situations...although still out of it's most useful range