ChescoWx

As of 10pm 0.8" here in East Nantmeal snow intensity picking up over last 30 minutes

NWS ups Western Chesco with their last update snow has increased here in intensity in the last hour ... URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 827 PM EST Mon Jan 15 2024 PAZ101-161430- /O.EXT.KPHI.WW.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-240116T2100Z/ Western Chester- Including the cities of Honey Brook and Oxford 827 PM EST Mon Jan 15 2024 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST TUESDAY... * WHAT...Snow. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 6 inches. * WHERE...Western Chester.

Not a big fan of model snow forecasts this close in but....GFS with an area of significant snows running along the higher elevation locales....so south of the typical low spots in the Lehigh Valley and focused across the higher spots from Lancaster County to NW Chester County and then through Western Montco and Bucks Counties....

Looks like the NWS upgraded all N and W of the fall line see below from AFD "Expecting 2 to 4 inches along the I-95 corridor and surrounding suburbs, and 3 to 5 inches north and west of the Fall Line. 1 to 3 inches of snow is expected elsewhere across Delmarva and southern New Jersey."

Latest NAM - pretty consistent - have a hunch it is slightly over done still

I think this is a 2" to 3" event for my area in NW Chesco....

Very light snow here in NW Chesco temp at 25.5 degrees

Latest GFS And Canadian

It has certainly been a slow decade for snow enthusiasts in the area. Since 2020 we have only had 8 snow events that I would consider at least moderate (more than 4 inches) They are in reverse order 3/12/22 (4.3") / 1/29/22 (5.8") / 1/7/22 (4.3") / 2/22/21 (5.0") / 2/19/21 (7.5") / 2/7/21 (8.8") / 2/3/21 (16.6") and 12/17/20 (9.3")

It has certainly been a slow decade for snow enthusiasts in the area. Since 2020 we have only had 8 snow events that I would consider at least moderate (more than 4 inches) They are in reverse order 3/12/22 (4.3") / 1/29/22 (5.8") / 1/7/22 (4.3") / 2/22/21 (5.0") / 2/19/21 (7.5") / 2/7/21 (8.8") / 2/3/21 (16.6") and 12/17/20 (9.3")

If you like a big east coast storm - I like it to be out to sea at this range. I suspect it starts coming back on most models by 0z tomorrow night

Cloudy Temp 23.6 RH 48% DP 7.3....some virga in the area

Latest NAM still liking the "peaks" of the Welsh Mountain anticline here in Chester and Berks Counties

Through yesterday we are at 40% of our normal seasonal snow to date here in NW Chester County. If the models are correct we may get pretty close to normal seasonal snow to date over the next 6 days. Of course we don't shovel models! Some southern areas of Chesco could see some flurries later today but for most snow will hold off till after the 7pm hour. The NWS is forecasting 2" to possibly 4" across the area by the time the snow ends tomorrow morning. Sun returns Wednesday before our next chance of snow arrives on Thursday night. Temperatures for the next week will remain below freezing. Records for today: High 70 (1932) / Low 3 below (1988) / Rain 1.07" (1898) / Snow 6.0" (1927)

Through yesterday we are at 40% of our normal seasonal snow to date here in NW Chester County. If the models are correct we may get pretty close to normal seasonal snow to date over the next 6 days. Of course we don't shovel models! Some southern areas of Chesco could see some flurries later today but for most snow will hold off till after the 7pm hour. The NWS is forecasting 2" to possibly 4" across the area by the time the snow ends tomorrow morning. Sun returns Wednesday before our next chance of snow arrives on Thursday night. Temperatures for the next week will remain below freezing. Records for today: High 70 (1932) / Low 3 below (1988) / Rain 1.07" (1898) / Snow 6.0" (1927)

NAM does show that warm layer nosing in all the way up to the city....something to watch

12z NAM has a solid 2" to 3" across much of the area by the time the birds game ends,,,,more still to fall

I never understand this bizarre take....if our team sucks as this team sure seems to...why do I care what the cowgirls do??? I have zero interest in their ineptitude!!! I

18z GFS with the next one being another Chesco special.....me thinks not!!

Yes Coatesville NWS COOP and NWS spotter data ....It was actually exactly 32" at Coatesville when obs were taken at 340ft asl from 1894 through 1982. Bumped up a few since observations began at 660 ft asl in 1983

What is seasonal average there? ABE has average to date at about 9" so far with 5.8" recorded to date. I would think ABE seasonal average is close to if not a little above mine at 35.9" here in NW Chesco. Don't think 6" gets them halfway there if my math is good....might not be!!

NW Chesco special - lock it in!!

by the time 925mb temps get to 0c it says 3" of snow has fallen across at least Chesco....not that anything it shows from this distance is likely reality....we wait!!

Hi Steve not from what I see on the NAM....850's never go above 0c from PHL and NW