ChescoWx

Roads already covered here in NW Chesco with steady snow temp at 25.5

My First Forecast Pass on this "event"

My First Forecast for this "event"

It really is amazing how the King Euro has fallen....but what really surprises me is how slow it is to react to the changes. The other models start east and the Euro continues to double down on the error. That said it will go east with the 12z that is the new model pattern.

Wwiper models.mp4

It depends how you run a page - My Chester County Weather Facebook page has since launch in October grown to over 3,100 members. I update them constantly with the clown maps....but I always pound home the maps are not a forecast....simple guidance for the professionals to use as one of their tools to make a forecast. Now if someone is out there saying a model map = a forecast then they may have some issues - my group - some may not be happy but they all seem to love the local non-philly focus!

While this upcoming storm won't be denting any Top 25 list our here in the Western Burbs - below for your viewing pleasure are our Top 25 January Snowstorms Average Chester County PA Snow at elevations over 660 FT ASL (1983-Present) = 36.3" - factoid this is the same annual snowfall as Chicago IL: East Nantmeal Twp. Total Seasonal Snowfall to Date Winter Season 2021-22 (7.1") / January 23 (0.2")/ January 20 (0.3") / January 7 (4.3")/ January 16 (2.3") Snow totals by season: 2020/21 snow (52.2") / 2019/20 snow (5.8" )/ 2018/19 snow (35.1" )/ 2017/18 snow (58.5") / 2016/17 snow (24.0")/ 2015/16 snow (40.8")/ 2014/15 snow = (55.3") /2013/14 snow (80.0") . Check out my historical Western Chester County PA website at https://www.chescowx.com and your #1 source of Urban Heat Island (UHI) Contamination analysis follow me on twitter at https://twitter.com/ChescoWx and be sure to join the #1 source for Facebook Weather at the Chester County Weather Page at https://www.facebook.com/groups/chescowx/

Average Chester County PA Snow at elevations over 660 FT ASL (1983-Present) = 36.3" - factoid this is the same annual snowfall as Chicago IL: East Nantmeal Twp. Total Seasonal Snowfall to Date Winter Season 2021-22 (7.1") / January 23 (0.2")/ January 20 (0.3") / January 7 (4.3")/ January 16 (2.3") Snow totals by season: 2020/21 snow (52.2") / 2019/20 snow (5.8" )/ 2018/19 snow (35.1" )/ 2017/18 snow (58.5") / 2016/17 snow (24.0")/ 2015/16 snow (40.8")/ 2014/15 snow = (55.3") /2013/14 snow (80.0") . Check out my historical Western Chester County PA website at https://www.chescowx.com and your #1 source of Urban Heat Island (UHI) Contamination analysis follow me on twitter at https://twitter.com/ChescoWx and be sure to join the #1 source for Facebook Weather at the Chester County Weather Page at https://www.facebook.com/groups/chescowx/

Agreed not the place! Though before I get some folks who misunderstand my position - I of course believe in climate change 100% - it is and always will be changing - now man-made impact......we need a whole different thread!! LOL!!!!

Still clearly due to the man made heat island all PHL sites should be taken with a grain of salt when trying to show temperature trends for "official" Philadelphia from say the 1880's through today. That is why as my suburban philly data shows a cyclical nature of warming and cooling since the 1890's while PHL is on a consistent upward trend which makes it look like constant warming due to the UHI contamination.

Even NE Philadelphia more urban than any suburban locale is running 2.7 degrees below PHL. The man made heat island should not be counted in our climate records in my humble opinion....the fact the above puts climate and Philadelphia area and then pops an above normal January is problematic to say the least!

That is of course a big problem - PHL is no longer representative of this area......

Classic Urban Heat Island Contamination (PHL) - the airport is no longer an accurate reading and yet we say it is our "official" reading. Below are the MTD temps and departures for some other sites in the area. I wonder if the NWS will look into this growing problem. PHL 33.8 + 0.1 / PNE 31.1 / ABE 26.3 (-4.0) / ACY 31.6 (-2.7) / Georgetown DE 34.1 (-2.8) / RDG 29.1 (-1.7) / TTN 29.5 (-2.7) / ILG 32.3 (-1.3) / KMQS 28.9 / KPTW 27.2)

windshield wiper effect all week long....

All you can say about the weekend is this is exactly where you want to be with most models showing some sort of deep low along the east coast. The windshield wiper effect will be intense this week as we will have folks bailing left and right as one model goes up the Apps and then OTS....no matter how you slice it - this has been a cold and active (but slightly below average snow) January for the area. I think most of us would have signed up for this at the end of December!

A few flurries flying this AM in NW Chesco

Still a few flakes out there but looks like we will finish with 0.2" and now up to 7.1" this month and season...only 0.5" below normal for January through today

My Chester County Weather Facebook page has now passed 3,000 members in just 3 months time. Our participants include folks from across Chester, Berks, Montgomery and Lancaster County - all of this cold and rumors of storms have certainly helped participation!

It looks like our 4th measurable snow "event" in this cold and "active" January 2022 here in NW Chesco

Some very light snow has commenced here in East Nantmeal temp at 33.0

The 18z GFS would make so many snow enthusiasts happy....but of course we don't shovel model output. That said...we track -should be an interesting week!

Evening light increasing....I suspect some weather newbies will start to speak of the "sun angle problem" always makes me laugh!