ChescoWx

It's all about the depth of the cold air....if the primary tracks to the Northwest and pulls above 0c air in at the 850mb (5k feet) level it is unlikely unless you have a bombing low off the coast to drag the freezing level back to the 850 level. Plus there is really nothing preventing warm buoyant air from surging above the surface with the absence of the deepening pressure off the coast. So normally once you turn to non-snow you stay there. That said if enough low level cold air you could certainly see a transition back to some ZR etc.

After a brief bit of snow now just cloudy and 33.6....could be plain rain by the time we get through this virga

Just started snowing here but very light so far...although about 8 miles NW of here at the Morgantown Turnpike entrance it is already snow covered - the models have Chester County going over pretty quick to rain so not expecting much here

We could see between 0.75" and 1.00" of rain today across the county with more in Southeast Chester County. We dry out and stay above normal through the weekend with our next chance of rain later Sunday night. There are signs of a cold and possibly stormy start to February. The record high for today is 73 degrees from 1967. Record low is 2 below zero from 1935. Daily precipitation record is 2.54" and the daily snow record is the same day in 1905 as 25.4" of snow was recorded bringing the 2 day storm total to 29.0" of snow. That blizzard was the 3rd largest snowstorm in Chester County history behind only the 45.3" in the February 1899 blizzard and the 38.0" from the December 1909 storm. The 1996 blizzard is #4 on the list at 28.9" of snow.

Should see a little sun today with temps as usual slightly above normal. Snow should arrive after rush hour tomorrow and quickly mix with and then change to rain...up to at most 1" looks possible before the rain. The NWS has put a Winter Weather Advisory in place for our bordering counties of Berks and Lancaster so those in the Far Western areas of the county should see the best chance of seeing the most snow we have seen this season >0.5" We should dry out for most of the rest of the week into the weekend with above normal temps and the next shot of rain not till Sunday Night into Monday. The record high for today is 72 degrees set in 1967. The record low is 4 below zero from 1930. Our daily precipitation record is 2.76" from 1979 and the daily snow mark is the 3.7" that fell today in 2015.

Snowy couple of weeks incoming....

Today's "event" brings our monthly snowfall to 0.5" Seasonal snow is now up to 1.3" which is only 12.4" below normal through today or 9% of average snowfall. If we receive no additional snow this would be the 8th least snowy January on record since 1894

Snow has started again but temps are well above freezing at 35.7

Wet snow here and 34.2 - likely won't accumulate as much as 7 years ago today...

We have picked up 0.60" of rain so far since last evening with 0.14" since midnight. We have started to see some snow mixing in with the rain here in East Nantmeal this morning. The rain should change to wet snow and taper off by around noontime today. Any minor accumulations would likely be in the more elevated spots in Western Chesco. Tomorrow looks to be a brief break in precipitation with partly sunny skies. It looks like snow will arrive Wednesday morning with possible accumulations of 2" to 4" before a change to rain late in the day. Clearing and colder by Friday with moderating temps again by next weekend. The record high for today is 69 degrees from 1906. Record low is 5 below zero in 1936. The daily precipitation and snow record is from the Blizzard in 2016. We picked up an additional 22" of snow today following the 4" that fell on the 22nd bringing our snow total to 26.0". That ties for the 8th largest snowstorm in Chester County history along with January 29, 1922.

Some light sleet started here in East Nantmeal temp at 37.6 DP 30.6

Increasing clouds for today with rain arriving from south to north across Chester County by evening. There could be a brief mix with some snow or sleet at the start of the precipitation but any small accumulation should be well north of the county. Some models hint at a change back to snow tomorrow morning with some minor accumulations but I am skeptical. Otherwise a 1 day break on Tuesday before snow arrives on Wednesday morning. The NWS sees most of Chester County at least starting as snow on Wednesday with some accumulations possible before any change to rain later on Wednesday. Quieter weather to finish out the week with slightly above normal temps continuing. The record high for today is 72 degrees way back in 1906. The record low was 14 below zero in 1984. Daily precipitation record and snow record are from 1987 when 12.8" of snow fell with a water equivalent of 1.47"

A wintry WXSIM forecast for this week - snow or ice mentioned every day but Tuesday! XSIM text forecast for East Nantmeal, initialized at 2:00 PM Jan 21, 2023 _______________________________________________________________________________ This afternoon: Partly cloudy. High 40. Wind north around 2 mph. Tonight: Fair in the evening, becoming partly to mostly cloudy after midnight, with areas of light frost likely. Low 28. Wind northwest near calm in the evening, becoming south after midnight. Sunday: Mostly cloudy in the morning, becoming dense overcast in the afternoon. A chance of a mix of rain, snow, and sleet in the afternoon. High 41. Wind south around 3 mph in the morning, becoming 7 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation 50 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly less than a quarter of an inch. Little or no snow or ice (on ground) accumulation expected. Sunday night: Dense overcast. Patchy light fog. A mix of rain, sleet, and snow likely in the evening, then a mix of rain and snow likely after midnight. Low 32. Wind southeast around 4 mph in the evening, becoming north-northwest after midnight. Chance of precipitation 80 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly around an inch. No snow or ice (on ground) accumulation expected. Monday: Dense overcast in the morning, becoming mostly cloudy to cloudy in the afternoon. Patchy light fog in the morning. A chance of a mix of snow, rain, and sleet in the morning, then a slight chance of snow in the afternoon. High 38. Wind chill around 28. Wind northwest around 8 mph, gusting to 17 mph, in the morning, becoming 12 mph, gusting to 20 mph, in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation 60 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly less than a quarter of an inch. No snow or ice (on ground) accumulation expected. Monday night: Fair to partly cloudy in the evening, becoming partly cloudy after midnight. Low 30. Wind chill ranging from 23 to 30. Wind northwest around 10 mph, gusting to 19 mph. Tuesday: Partly cloudy in the morning, becoming mostly cloudy to cloudy in the afternoon. High 43. Wind west around 11 mph, gusting to 21 mph. Tuesday night: Partly cloudy in the evening, becoming partly to mostly cloudy after midnight, with areas of light frost likely. Low 31. Wind west around 6 mph, gusting to 16 mph, in the evening, becoming near calm after midnight. Wednesday: Dense overcast. A chance of a mix of snow and sleet in the morning, then a mix of sleet, rain, and snow likely in the afternoon. High 36. Wind east around 3 mph in the morning, becoming 9 mph, gusting to 17 mph, in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation 80 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly around an inch. Snow or ice (on ground) accumulation about an inch. Wednesday night: Dense overcast in the evening, becoming cloudy after midnight. Patchy light fog after midnight. Rain likely. Low 34, but temperatures rising after midnight. Wind chill ranging from 25 to 37. Wind east around 10 mph, gusting to 17 mph, in the evening, becoming southwest around 3 mph after midnight. Chance of precipitation 80 percent. Precipitation mostly around an inch.

Looking ahead my latest WXSIM forecast that now has the ability to mix in the EURO with the GFS and NAM has snow developing Monday AM the 30th with 5" on the ground by 12noon which is the end of the forecast period....seems like a lock to me!!

Models depicting "largest" Chester County snow week of the season to date!! snow totals by Wednesday evening below - buckle up!!

Today should be chillier but still above normal with temps in the upper 30's to near 40 today. Our next rain event starts later tomorrow PM. If the precipitation arrives early enough in the PM we could see some wet snow mixed in and of course a couple models still show a small measurable amount of snow before the change to rain. Of note the GFS model has the rain changing back to snow with a small accumulation across much of Chester County on Monday morning. The next rainstorm looks more likely to start as snow on Wednesday with some minor accumulations possible (but it would still be our "largest" snow event of the season if it comes to pass) Turning colder by the end of the work week with temps closer to normal. Our record high for today is 67 degrees way back in 1906. The record low is 11 below zero from 1987. Daily precipitation record is 1.88" from 1902 and the record daily snow is the 10.0" that fell today back in 2014.

12z NAM delivers our largest snowstorm of the season for Western Chester County....winter is back on!!!

Total rain from yesterday was 0.93". Today will turn windy with some sun but more clouds by PM. Tomorrow is on average the coldest day of the year...however this year we should reach well into the upper 30's to near 40 with partly sunny skies. Next rain event arrives on Sunday night into Monday AM. Otherwise another snow/rain chance by Tuesday night into Wednesday as our very active pattern continues. The record high for today is 67 degrees from 1951. Our record low is 8 below zero from 1984. Daily precipitation mark is 2.18" from 1979. The daily snow record is the 5.5" of snow that fell today back in 2000.

Korean Model to save winter Low off the coast.....uh still rains

Plowable snow event for the NW Philly burbs on the new NAM - no doubt this will verify!!

Up to 0.63" of chilly rain here today. In other news the 18z NAM continues to save the winter with a plowable event over much of the philly burbs!! What can go wrong with only 72 hours to go? Who else is firing up their snow blower??

Welp! my Tempest at the shore is now broken again (barometer) for the 4th time and the company wishes to send me a 5th unit in the last 13 months!! I told them no thanks as I have already spent over $600 for the first 4 roof installs. If anyone knows someone at the shore with a tall ladder who will snap the new unit in for free let me know? Thanks! Paul

Winter again saved by the Euro for the NW philly burbs!! "biggest" snow week of the winter so far!! 6" for East Nantmeal - lock it up!!

NAM delivers the largest snow event of the season and saves winter!!!