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ChescoWx

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  1. ChescoWx
    Where is that forecast from??...I would be surprised if many actually see even 1" of snow from this.....
  2. ChescoWx
    Closing in on a 1" rain total so far. Temp has dropped almost 14 degrees with the initial cool front....HRRR has temps in the single digits by 6pm and still has some festivus snow
  3. ChescoWx
    Since yesterday we have recorded 0.97" of rain here in East Nantmeal with 0.14" since midnight. We have already reached our high for the day as an initial cool front passed through earlier this AM. The high was 55.4 at 2:51am we have now dropped over 13 degrees to 41.9 as of 838am. The actual arctic front still looks on tap to pass through the county from west to east during the 10 am hour. We should see briefly heavy rain turn to snow which could last for a couple of hours before ending. The latest HRRR short range model still shows some spots in Western Chester County picking up a quick inch of snow. Either way it shows temps falling into the teens by 1pm and the single digits by 7pm this evening. The record high today is 65.3 set back in 2015. The record low is zero set in 1960. The daily rain record is 1.41" set in 1907. The record snow for today is the 6.2" that fell today back in 1963.
  4. ChescoWx
    I don't think that map would ever produce....HP moving out - not ideal IMHO
  5. ChescoWx
    Latest NAM still bringing around 1" of festivus snows for some in Chester County
  6. ChescoWx
    The latest models continues to show the potential for a small accumulation of snow following the cold front passage tomorrow morning. The NWS has trended even colder for Saturday - now forecasting the record lowest high temperature ever recorded (since 1894) for Christmas Eve Day with a high of only 17 now forecast. GFS
  7. ChescoWx
    Steady ZR temp at 31.1 DP 29.3 -hearing of some accidents being reported in the area
  8. ChescoWx
    Light ZR and 31.5 (DP 29.4) here in East Nantmeal Township in Chester County PA. Heavy snow falling just 15 miles NW of here
  9. ChescoWx
    GFS keep festivus miracle hopes alive....just choose to believe!!! Getting my snow blower all tuned up!!!
  10. ChescoWx
    Indeed!! if we actually shoveled model snow output my snow blower would break down every year!
  11. ChescoWx
    The NWS has issued a Winter Weather Advisory for Western Chester County (not Eastern Chesco) for this morning till 11am. We have some light freezing rain falling here now in East Nantmeal Twp. with a temperature at 30.9 degrees. This should change to plain rain over the next couple of hours. Plenty of rain on the way with over 2" falling before the cold front passes later tomorrow. That front should briefly turn the rain over to snow before ending. Some models still show a minor accumulation with the exception of the GFS which shows up to a couple of inches in spots across the County, Either way temps will tumble from near 50 in the morning to near 10 degrees by tomorrow evening. The record high for today is 64.7 from 2013, The record low is 1 below zero set in 1960. Record rain is the 1.63" from 1983. Our record snow is the 5.8" that fell today in 1908.
  12. ChescoWx
    Per Joe Bastardi at WeatherBell "Models cant handle it as the pattern is in transition. So I am going to old school this. Positive at the top of Hudson Bay and shortening wavelengths argue to me for the coastal storm. Models are trying to develop a ridge ( which is coming) so the different branches get lost. So I believe we have the snow threat next week coming into the plains day 5. Ohio and Tennessee valley day 6 and on the east coast day 7. If I did not have almost all models telling me that is not going to happen, I would really be chomping at the bit But they could be right. The fact is the upper negative is right in the slot on the Euro packages. The GFS just kicks everything along as it always does I like it. I guess we will find out if I am right next week"
  13. ChescoWx
    Agreed! I can't remember the last time we have seen snow accumulate following the FROPA
  14. ChescoWx
    12z GFS still delivers the Christmas Miracle....if you choose to believe!
  15. ChescoWx
    The current NWS Forecast has a High Temperature of 18 degrees and a Low of 9 degrees above zero for Christmas Eve Day. If the high is only 18 degrees that would be the coldest high temperature ever recorded on Christmas Eve day since records began for Chester County in 1894. The coldest high temp on Christmas Eve day was the 19 degree high back in 1906. Christmas Day warms up to a forecast high of 21 following a Christmas morning low of 11 degrees. If that Forecast holds the combined Christmas Eve and Day Holiday would be the 4th coldest holiday on record. With Christmas Eve the 4th coldest and Christmas Day the 3rd coldest on record. The combined top 15 combined cold holidays are in the table below. Merry Christmas to all stay warm!!
  16. ChescoWx
    That "well respected met" JB has had his eye on this....
  17. ChescoWx
    Another near normal late December day for the area today with temps touching 40 degrees this PM. Today is the calm before the storm that will arrive tomorrow AM. Clouds increase tonight with our temps actually rising after midnight. Some very brief sleet or freezing drizzle is possible just after rush hour tomorrow. This will quickly change to heavy rain which will last into Friday. A strong arctic cold front will sweep across Chester County during about the 10am hour on Friday. Any left over precipitation will change to snow or flurries for an hour or 2. Some models still hint at a small accumulation...more likely as we head west in the county. Either way rapidly falling temperatures on Friday afternoon with readings falling through the teens. Some models have temperatures as low as 12 degrees by 7pm. Many areas will see air temps in the single digits by Christmas Eve morning. High temperatures on Christmas Eve will not escape the teens. Wind chills will be well below zero all day. Christmas. A top 4 Coldest Christmas Eve and Christmas Day is likely. The record high for today is 62 degrees from 1971. Our record low is 1 below zero from 1942. The daily rain record is 1.56" from 1902. The daily snow mark is 2.0" from 1959.
  18. ChescoWx
    12z GFS and NAM both showing some minor anafront snows on Friday....usually does not work out from my experience
  19. ChescoWx
    It looks like a big fail for my analog snow forecast for December...but the below normal temps look likely....
  20. ChescoWx
    Nothing on the 6z Euro
  21. ChescoWx
    If you want to see what a festivus miracle can look like - the always reliable 84 hour NAM delivers a plowable snow for the western burbs of Philly on Friday!! Lock it in!!
  22. ChescoWx
    Dry and seasonable weather will continue for Christmas Week before a stormy Thursday into Friday for Chester County PA. The storm continues to look like mainly rain after a brief start as snow or sleet. A powerful cold front will sweep across the county from west to east during the late morning hours on Friday. Most models are now showing some minor <1"of snow accumulations before the snow ends on Friday PM. A top 10 coldest Christmas holiday remains probable for the weekend.
  23. ChescoWx
    Today was our 1st day this season that the high temperature failed to rise above freezing. The last time we failed to pass the freezing mark for a high temperature was on March 28th. That was also the latest sub freezing day in Chester County history with records back to 1894.
  24. ChescoWx
    To put a fine point on Charlie's (Chubbs) post above. Below is a simple chart showing average actual (non-adjusted) temperature trends comparing PHL Airport (Green) vs. Phoenixville (Blue) / Glenmoore (Orange) and Coatesville Chesco (Red) from 1940 through today. The calculated trend lines very clearly show the PHL Airport trend is rapidly rising while the others show much more stable trends with slight rises at both Phoenixville and Coatesville but cooling trends shown by the Glenmoore NWS COOP observer. In fact with just 12 days remaining in 2022 both Glenmoore and Coatesville will finish between 0.5 and 1.0 degrees colder than 2021. Of course the PHL Airport is on pace to finish at greater than 1 degree warmer than 2021.
  25. ChescoWx
    Again for the millionth time - my data is pure and not adjusted raw data. It clearly does not show what your post adjusted multiple site combined data above shows. As it shows in my data shared earlier in this thread there is a clear up and down and up and down pattern to all sites - it is not that complicated!!
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