ChescoWx

Would be surprised if anyone sees even this little...

We are now at 10% of normal snowfall....can we get to 15% of normal snow by tomorrow AM? call me excited!!!

Latest 12z runs for the impending snowstorm....The Euro and NAM Jackpot Chesco while the GFS and GEM go north!!! Buckle up!!!

Increasing clouds today with some models still showing our "largest" snow event of the year starting after midnight tonight and wrapping up by the Monday morning rush. If there really is any accumulation at all it is most likely on grassy and non-paved surfaces above 550ft across the County. Temperatures will for the most part remain above freezing while any snow is falling with maybe the exception of the highest spots in Western Chester County. A mainly dry and slightly above normal temperature week looks likely with a large mainly rain event looking likely by Thursday night with it possibly starting as snow. The record high for today is 67 degrees set in 1998. The record low is 5 below zero from 1981. Daily rain mark is the 1.81" from 1978. Our daily snow record was day 2 of the Blizzard of 1996....when a final 6.1" fell bringing our final total to 28.9" of snow with 30" on the ground at storms end.

I have you beat....no freezing temps since 12/29!! Winter in all it's glory!!

Here in Chester County the first 6 days of January were the 2nd warmest start to the year in history. Below is a list of the Top 20 warmest. I have also listed how much snow fell from January through April following those mild starts to the New Year. Normal Chester County snowfall between now and April is 29.7" 6 of the 20 years would end up with above normal snow. 5 more years would be within 5" of normal with 9 ending below normal snowfall. Not sure if it means anything but....I guess I am saying if you love snow - there is hope!

Most of the most recent model runs continue to show our "biggest" snowfall of the season so far from tomorrow night into Monday morning. They appear to be showing the "most" snow of up to 1.5" in the higher spots over 600 ft across Chester, Berks, Montgomery and Bucks counties. The GFS is the outlier with the "jackpot" for our southern friends.

Do you still live in Chesco? If so this is your forum. Welcome!! Paul

We are now into a stretch of near to slightly above normal temps for at least the next week. HIgh temps should average in the low to mid-40's - normal high temps are in the upper 30's and lows in the low to mid-20's. There still is a chance for some spots to pick up some measurable wet snow tomorrow night into Monday morning. Relative elevation will play a role in who sees any actual accumulation on non-paved surfaces. Most models are painting from 0.5" to at most 2.0" across the county. Incredibly for some this may be the largest snowfall so far this winter season. Here in East Nantmeal the most snow from one event has been the 0.5" on 12/23. The record high for today is 70 degrees from 1907. The record low was set just 9 years ago with a 1.6 degree below zero reading. The record precipitation record is the 2.12" of water equivalent in 1996. That is also the record snow for today with the 22.8" that fell during day one of our 5th largest all-time snowstorm here in Chester County. When the storm ended on the 8th we had a 28.9" storm total.

My towering elevation will save the day....0.1" more for me!!!

Yep NAM sniffing out our biggest event of the year.....bring it on!! 0.7" to 2.1" across the area - everybody wins!!

I will try to be Positive Paul with this one.....wish me luck!!

The 3 major 12z ensemble runs all look good for a potential wintry event next weekend...what can go wrong with only 1 week till game time??

12z Euro Ensemble still on board for our biggest snowstorm of the year on Sunday Evening!!!

I would take my chances for north and west of the fall line with that track every time...

All about tracks - put a low 50 miles off the delmarva....it snows with 52 degree water temps

What a ridiculous model look at that low position at 0z next Sunday and look what is has at 18z

Latest 12z models...NAM looks like 12 hours slower with onset of precipitation

The latest models for our largest snowstorm so far this winter season....buckle up and get those snowblowers ready!!!

We have picked up 0.15" of rain since yesterday here in East Nantmeal. A few more light showers this morning before sun returns this PM. We should see our first freezing temperature of the year (since December 29th) by tomorrow morning. It has been an incredibly warm start to 2023. Temps should return to near normal this weekend and stay near there for at least the next week to 10 days. Most models still show a chance of some snow arriving on Sunday night and ending by the Monday AM commute. This has the potential to be the largest snow event of the season. Of course our biggest snow event so far has been 0.5" The record high for today is 68.8 degrees set in 2007. The record low is 4 below zero from 1904. Record rain is the 1.30" that fell in 1962. Our record daily snow is the 5.5" that fell today in 1970.

Does anyone know why both KPTW ASOS (offline since November) and KMQS AWOS (offline since last week) are not reporting?

Still even that winter had a great all-time winter event...at least here in Chester County - 9" snowstorm in October and ended up with more than half our annual snowfall at ~19"

Since some folks are worried about having a couple of the least snowy winters in history within the last few years....I thought it a good time to again revisit how incredibly and unusually snowy we have been in this century (since 2000). I wonder if the younger folks that follow the weather will think that our recent snowy cycle is actually typical of this area? As the analysis I have posted here shows we have always experience very variable year to year snow seasons. But as you can see from below and I suspect we are due for some of the least snowy winters on record. Since 2000 we have experience 6 of our top 20 snowiest winters; conversely during that same time frame we have only had 3 of our least snowy winters.