ChescoWx

I have you beat....no freezing temps since 12/29!! Winter in all it's glory!!

Here in Chester County the first 6 days of January were the 2nd warmest start to the year in history. Below is a list of the Top 20 warmest. I have also listed how much snow fell from January through April following those mild starts to the New Year. Normal Chester County snowfall between now and April is 29.7" 6 of the 20 years would end up with above normal snow. 5 more years would be within 5" of normal with 9 ending below normal snowfall. Not sure if it means anything but....I guess I am saying if you love snow - there is hope!

Most of the most recent model runs continue to show our "biggest" snowfall of the season so far from tomorrow night into Monday morning. They appear to be showing the "most" snow of up to 1.5" in the higher spots over 600 ft across Chester, Berks, Montgomery and Bucks counties. The GFS is the outlier with the "jackpot" for our southern friends.

Do you still live in Chesco? If so this is your forum. Welcome!! Paul

We are now into a stretch of near to slightly above normal temps for at least the next week. HIgh temps should average in the low to mid-40's - normal high temps are in the upper 30's and lows in the low to mid-20's. There still is a chance for some spots to pick up some measurable wet snow tomorrow night into Monday morning. Relative elevation will play a role in who sees any actual accumulation on non-paved surfaces. Most models are painting from 0.5" to at most 2.0" across the county. Incredibly for some this may be the largest snowfall so far this winter season. Here in East Nantmeal the most snow from one event has been the 0.5" on 12/23. The record high for today is 70 degrees from 1907. The record low was set just 9 years ago with a 1.6 degree below zero reading. The record precipitation record is the 2.12" of water equivalent in 1996. That is also the record snow for today with the 22.8" that fell during day one of our 5th largest all-time snowstorm here in Chester County. When the storm ended on the 8th we had a 28.9" storm total.

My towering elevation will save the day....0.1" more for me!!!

Yep NAM sniffing out our biggest event of the year.....bring it on!! 0.7" to 2.1" across the area - everybody wins!!

I will try to be Positive Paul with this one.....wish me luck!!

The 3 major 12z ensemble runs all look good for a potential wintry event next weekend...what can go wrong with only 1 week till game time??

12z Euro Ensemble still on board for our biggest snowstorm of the year on Sunday Evening!!!

I would take my chances for north and west of the fall line with that track every time...

All about tracks - put a low 50 miles off the delmarva....it snows with 52 degree water temps

What a ridiculous model look at that low position at 0z next Sunday and look what is has at 18z

Latest 12z models...NAM looks like 12 hours slower with onset of precipitation

The latest models for our largest snowstorm so far this winter season....buckle up and get those snowblowers ready!!!

We have picked up 0.15" of rain since yesterday here in East Nantmeal. A few more light showers this morning before sun returns this PM. We should see our first freezing temperature of the year (since December 29th) by tomorrow morning. It has been an incredibly warm start to 2023. Temps should return to near normal this weekend and stay near there for at least the next week to 10 days. Most models still show a chance of some snow arriving on Sunday night and ending by the Monday AM commute. This has the potential to be the largest snow event of the season. Of course our biggest snow event so far has been 0.5" The record high for today is 68.8 degrees set in 2007. The record low is 4 below zero from 1904. Record rain is the 1.30" that fell in 1962. Our record daily snow is the 5.5" that fell today in 1970.

Does anyone know why both KPTW ASOS (offline since November) and KMQS AWOS (offline since last week) are not reporting?

Still even that winter had a great all-time winter event...at least here in Chester County - 9" snowstorm in October and ended up with more than half our annual snowfall at ~19"

Since some folks are worried about having a couple of the least snowy winters in history within the last few years....I thought it a good time to again revisit how incredibly and unusually snowy we have been in this century (since 2000). I wonder if the younger folks that follow the weather will think that our recent snowy cycle is actually typical of this area? As the analysis I have posted here shows we have always experience very variable year to year snow seasons. But as you can see from below and I suspect we are due for some of the least snowy winters on record. Since 2000 we have experience 6 of our top 20 snowiest winters; conversely during that same time frame we have only had 3 of our least snowy winters.

Through yesterday the month is running almost 18 degrees above normal! Today will start the trend back to cooler although we will still be a good 16 degrees above normal for the day. Overall temps for the next couple of weeks look normal to a few degrees above normal for mid January. However, even normal January temps can result in wintry events. While there is a small chance for some snow around Sunday evening....I am not at all enthused about that or any other snow chances over the next week to 10 days...but as we know forecasting is far from an exact science! The record high for today is 62 degrees set in 1950. The record low is 7 degrees below zero from 1904. The record rain is the 1.56" that fell in 1934. The daily snow record is the 3.6" that fell today in 2003.

I can't tell you the last time I watched a TV Met....not much they give you except the latest GFS....

Agreed!! we have never had a climo with long sustained periods of snow and cold...does it rarely happen? sure. This is why looking at decades is key... it evens out the variability seen in individual winters seasons or even multi-year patterns. The overall story is there is nothing changing about our snow climate just typical climate cycles which have been and will continue to see peaks and valleys forever.

It looks like rain will be moving in today from the southwest by this afternoon. Highs should peak in the low 60's today...while very warm not close to our record high of 67 set back in 1950. However, that is 22 degrees above normal. Tomorrow we "cool" to only 14 degrees above normal to the mid-50's. We should be closer to normal with highs around 40 by the weekend. The record high is that 67 set in 1950. Our record low is the 3 below zero set in 1918. The daily rain record is the 1.55" from 1944. Daily snow record is the 4.5" that fell today back in 1905.