ChescoWx

A chilly wet day on tap today across the area. As of 8am we had already received 0.15" of rain and look for another 0.25" to 0.50" during the day today. Tomorrow looks like the warmest day of the week with highs in the mid-40's. Slightly above normal temps should continue for the next 7 days. Of note this is on average the coldest 7 day stretch of the winter season across Chester County. It looks like we still could see some wet snow arriving on Sunday afternoon especially across the higher western spots in the county. This should change to a cold rain before ending toward midnight. Another storm could start as snow on Tuesday night before mixing with and changing to a cold rain before ending on Wednesday. The record high for today is 67 degrees set in 1951. Our record low occurred on what was also the coldest day in Chester County history with a high temperature of 1 below zero after a record AM low of 11 degrees below zero back on this date in 1994. Daily precipitation record is the 1.91" that fell in 1996. Record daily snow is the 13.0" that fell on this date in 1961.

GFS not so much....

German FTW!!

Snow begets snow....this pattern has not been doing much begetting - I will stick with a non-snow forecast till the pattern delivers

Storm #1 and Storm #2

I was living in KofP at the time and remember it was pouring rain and 21 degrees.....I was going out every hour to chop ice off my car

The WXSIM is on board with a major snowstorm only 1 week away!! Book it!! Wednesday: Dense overcast in the morning, becoming cloudy in the afternoon. Patchy light fog. A mix of snow, sleet, and rain likely in the morning, then a mix of snow and rain likely in the afternoon. High 36. Wind chill around 27. Wind northeast around 8 mph, gusting to 16 mph, in the morning, becoming northwest in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation 80 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly between 1 and 2 inches. Snow or ice (on ground) accumulation 6 to 10 inches. Maximum snow level 100 feet above ground.

Of note on January 19, 1994 the low at Coatesville was 11 below zero the high temperature only made it to 1 degree below zero - this is the only time since 1894 that the high temperature stayed below zero.

Cloudy and very mild for mid January today with highs in the upper 40's. A rainy day on tap tomorrow with up to 3/4 inches of rain possible. We chill down to closer but still above normal temps for the weekend with the chance of snow arriving later Sunday quickly changing to rain. Another chance of at least some wintry weather is possible later next Wednesday. Our record high for today is a springlike 66 degrees today back in 1973. The record low was 4 below zero from 1994. Record precipitation is the 1.15" from 1915. Our daily snow record is the 6" today in 1930.

A chance of some light rain today with highs in the low 40's our normal high is 36.8. We should see temps stay above freezing till Friday night. Tomorrow looks like the warmest day of the week with our high maybe touching 50 degrees. Thursday looks like a wet day with maybe 0.75" of rain possible. Dry and a bit cooler but still above normal by the weekend. The record high for today is 65 degrees from our only snowless winter of 1973. Record low is 13 below zero today in 1982. The daily precipitation record is 1.83" from 1994. Record snow is the 6.0" that fell today in 1978.

The Bastardi Storm incoming - lock it up!!

So you think the 1st 15 days of the year have been warm? You are correct this is the 5th warmest first half of January since 1894. The top 10 warmest are below.

Per that well respected meteorologist "Jan 20. End of California Deluge pattern. Meanwhile winter coming back big time for the US Buckle up. Major winter storm plains this week, likely first accumulating snow I-95 corridor next. Bottom line"

Most spots across the county dropped into the lower 20's this morning. Tonight should be the last below freezing temps until Saturday morning. A couple chances of some rain first tomorrow night and then rain is likely by Thursday. Overall looks like between 0.50" and 1.00" of rain are possible by Friday. There are signs of a change in the weather patterns which may get folks talking about some snow potential as we close out the month of January. The record high for today is 61 degrees set in 1932. The record low is 10 below zero set today in 1982. Our daily precipitation record is 1.71" from 1924. The daily snow record is the 10.0" of snow that fell today in 1945.

Today should see a return to near normal January temps with highs in the upper 30's. Sunny tomorrow before a chance of rain Tuesday with a much better chance by Thursday. The warmest day looks like Wednesday when we could touch 50 degrees. Cooler again by the end of the week. The record high for today is 70 degrees in 1932. The record low is 3 below zero from 1988. Daily precipitation record is 1.07" Daily snow record is the 6.0" that fell today in 1927.

Today was our first below freezing day (high was 31.6) and below normal temperature day since December 27th.

Agreed RedSky is the snow capital of SE PA - I have seen only a little over 50% of that!!

Below is an analysis of all Chester County PA data from all available sources with at least 6 complete decades of history. The most complete data sets have 13 complete decades of data. In the data below all decades that had temperatures fall from the previous decade are in blue and those that rose are in red. Data in black showed no change decade to decade. When averaging all reporting sites across the county we see that 6 decades trended colder from the prior decade and 6 decades trended warmer. Overall the 1930's and 1940's were the warmest decades and we have still not returned to those warm levels Five of the Top 10 warmest decades occurred prior to 1960. We have seen no more than 3 consecutive warming decades and no more than 3 consecutive cooling decades since the 1890's.

those would make it more difficult for him to back into the conclusion he's already made and to which he's trying to force the data to conform, so I doubt he is handling those very real and significant issues at all. Hi guys, Thanks for the questions. For consistency I did not adjust any of the reported data for all of the long term Chester County PA sites. The assumption being all COOP sites were instructed to record obs at the same time during the periods based on the US Department of Commerce - Weather Bureau directions as included in the bureau's monthly and annual footnotes . The same assumption was made for any potential instrument changes that the individual observer would have been instructed to make. There were no noted station moves for Phoenixville, West Chester or Glenmoore. The combined Coatesville (Coatesville 1 SW) data indicates 3 station moves during the period 1888 through 1982. These moves were within 1.5 NM with the ASL elevation variance being within 80 feet. A 4th move was made in 1983 (Coatesville 2W) with a move 1.5 NM north to an elevation of 640 feet. These readings continued through December 31, 2007 and were combined and reported by the PA State Climatologist. The Coatesville 2W station ceased operations on 12/31/07. We then performed a detailed statistical analysis of the NWS Trained Spotter Data (mine) at East Nantmeal (9.2 NM to the NE and 45 feet higher in elevation). Both sites which both reported daily data in parallel from December 1, 2003 through December 31, 2007. This analysis of 1,492 daily average temperature observation points across 49 months of weather data supported a rejection of the null hypothesis. That hypothesis being the 2 data points are not the same and cannot be combined. The resulting p-value rejected that null hypothesis and in fact was highly significant and the similarity of the data was not attributable to chance. Importantly, this means the 2 data points (Coatesville 2W and East Nantmeal) have been determined to be scientifically one and the same and may be appropriately combined for analysis and reporting. I hope this helps!

A few light flurries have been seen here in East Nantmeal this AM. Today will be mainly cloudy with limited sun. Our temps will struggle to get above freezing especially along the higher ridges in western spots of chesco. Today will be our first below normal day of the year. However, by tomorrow will return to normal to just above temps which will continue for the rest of the upcoming week. Our next chance of rain arrives on Tuesday AM....if it arrives early enough we may see a touch of freezing rain. Wednesday will be the warmest day of the week with highs approaching 50 degrees. Cooler weather is on tap to close out the week. The record high for today is 73 degrees set in 1932. The record low for today is also the coldest temperature ever recorded in Chester County of 19 degrees below zero - today back in 1912. Of note Phoenixville's all-time record low is also 19 below zero which was recorded on January 22, 1961. West Chester's all-time low reading was the 16 below zero that was twice observed both on January 22, 1984 and February 10, 1934. Record precipitation for today is the 1.78" that fell in 1921. Our daily snow record is the 14.3" that fell today way back in 1910.

Some very light flurries now falling here in East Nantmeal temp at low for the day at 28.0

It is snowing and 33 degrees in Sea Isle City this morning.....

Of note the average snow for the Western Burbs of Philly in Chester County is 19.4" from January 12 - February 28th - the EURO average on the weeklies still shows continuing below normal snowfall but does at least show some snow...