ChescoWx

A mild week continues for Chester County with a chance of some showers overnight tonight. Temps should warm into the 50's Wednesday through Friday. There is a chance we could see some freezing rain across some of the far northern areas of Chesco into Berks and Lehigh counties if the rain arrives before rush hour. Colder air will follow for the weekend and we will track a developing coastal storm that could track close enough to give us snow later Sunday toward evening. Only the GFS American model currently shows significant snow with that model printing out over a foot of snow across Chester County. That said based on our seasonal trends this winter I suspect it will likely track off the coast to our south. Records for today: High 61.3 (2008) / Low 2 below zero (1948) / Precipitation 1.94" (1965) / Record Snow 14.8" (1951)

A mild week continues for Chester County with a chance of some showers overnight tonight. Temps should warm into the 50's Wednesday through Friday. There is a chance we could see some freezing rain across some of the far northern areas of Chesco into Berks and Lehigh counties if the rain arrives before rush hour. Colder air will follow for the weekend and we will track a developing coastal storm that could track close enough to give us snow later Sunday toward evening. Only the GFS American model currently shows significant snow with that model printing out over a foot of snow across Chester County. That said based on our seasonal trends this winter I suspect it will likely track off the coast to our south. Records for today: High 61.3 (2008) / Low 2 below zero (1948) / Precipitation 1.94" (1965) / Record Snow 14.8" (1951)

Get the plows fired up - big snowstorm incoming....imagine if we actually had to shovel all of this model snow this year!!

This was the source data that was used for the prediction show. That 1.8 meter prediction is not tracking well...LOL!! .https://books.google.com/books?id=c1Hls8bvKT8C&pg=PA39&dq=extrapolate the sea-level rise to the year 2000&hl=en&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwiP4MffhJ_dAhUFEqwKHYOhDE8Q6AEIJzAA#v=onepage&q&f=false

Maybe If we could find any climate doomsday event(s) pushed by climate alarmists that actually has taken place and is attributable to climate change....like the above evaporating oceans or even rising oceans like the doomsday predictions of flooded Atlantic City casinos predicted by cycle deniers 30 years ago that have never come to pass. If there was actual real world events that we can point to maybe folks would accept it better?

Our mild weather continues most of this week before we cool down to near normal by the weekend. Rain looks likely by Thursday morning with another chance on Friday night into Saturday. The record high for today is 65.8 set in 2008. The record low is 6 below zero from 1895. Daily precipitation mark is the 3.00" that fell way back in 1896. Our daily snow record is the 12.3" that fell today back in 2010.

Our mild weather continues most of this week before we cool down to near normal by the weekend. Rain looks likely by Thursday morning with another chance on Friday night into Saturday. The record high for today is 65.8 set in 2008. The record low is 6 below zero from 1895. Daily precipitation mark is the 3.00" that fell way back in 1896. Our daily snow record is the 12.3" that fell today back in 2010.

It's gonna rain like a hose on a flat rock! He had a million of these!! He was the main reason I got interested in weather as a little kid

Hi CSNavyWx I am simply showing actual data - with supporting documentation and references. I unlike some I have met on the other side of this debate... can have calm rational discussions on the data without anger. I have no expectation of changing your views - that is your right. See answers below. Doesn't matter what ya throw at him. It won't work. The only thing that matters is this when engaging in this sort of discussion: What would it take to invalidate your position? Actual climate data with a longer period or record than only since 1970. Data and analytics should include at the very least data from the 1890's without post observation adjustments for the 1930's-1950's A forecast model that has been proven to accurately predict 2m temperatures for decades ahead of today. The fact our models today still struggle with 2m temps for even 1 month ahead call this into question. One can't test a model prediction until we have future data to validate the forecast, Unfortunately this makes it unfalsifiable and clearly outside of the scientific method. So we should really pay little attention to data derived from climate models. That said - Irrespective of any modeling if 50 years from now we are reviewing actual real un-adjusted data and every single decade has continued to warm - I will be on board with this non-stop warming hypothesis that has not yet been proven as we stand here today in 2023. The non-stop warming hypothesis is of course not the famed "settled science" we too often hear as a response to debate. If he can't state it clearly at this point -- block and move on. This is a very sad statement and sentiment but so very common today in our society that simply shuts down and does not wish to debate any topic. This is why we now have "safe spaces" in our colleges and universities - let's just shut off and cancel or block any dissenting opinions - so sad to see!! Tired of the years of coddling this shit on this board. It's tiring.

Welp for the who knows how many times.... let's try to explain this again with some actual facts and real world scientifically rigorous data. First off the data I show if you just look back a couple posts include all multiple available Chester County sites not just one site! When I do show the one site I have appropriately referenced the sources. Regarding the sources of the one station Charlie mentions above. We will reiterate the detailed scientific methods and analysis that took place to validate this numerical data being used. The data set comprises only the National Weather Service COOP observations from 1888 to 1982 for Coatesville 1SW when that station moved per NWS direction to a nearby location in Coatesville beginning in 1983. That location was only 2 miles to the NW at an additional 300 ft elevation change - that station remained in use till 12/31/07. The data of both of those stations was deemed acceptable (In to whatever analysis done by the PA Climate Office I also performed a null-hypothesis significance test which validated with a highly statistical p-value) and combined by the Pennsylvania State Climate Office and is posted on their website with climatology stats using the combined 2 stations. So now we have data from 1888 through 2007 that is included in this data set. However, the Coatesville NWS observer stopped reporting in December 2007. Without that data I was required to do a statistical analysis to determine if the daily data that had been recorded at both the Coatesville NWS observer station and my NWS spotter data in East Nantmeal for Chester County (at the same elevation ~660 ft ASL) which were taken concurrently daily from 12/1/2003 through 12/31/2007 would be found statistically the same - this is critical because if this statistical significance test had failed we would not have been able to use this data for the ongoing analysis we perform. Remember the null hypothesis we had to put forth is that the data at the 2 stations is NOT the same - However, based on the detailed statistical analysis performed we were able to reject that null hypothesis and therefore we have proven with data certainty that the data from both stations are found to be statistically one and the same based on the highly significant ( p-value results were well under 0.05 required) and we are then allowed to combine this data as scientifically one and the same. This detailed statistical analysis provided the support that allows us to have high confidence that the total data set being used is valid and appropriate for analysis. Hope this helps!! Paul

No see above coop station references -continual data from 1894 thru Present using Coatesville 1SW / Coatesville 2W and NWS spotter data

The big warmup is underway as temps have risen from a midnight low of 21.0 to already above freezing across all of Chester County. The mild and mostly dry weather will continue till our next rain chance on Thursday. A couple models have enough cold air getting involved by overnight Friday into Saturday AM to deliver some snow....but as we have seen this winter - I would not get the snow blowers gassed up just yet! Of note 9 years ago today (see below) in 2014 we were in the midst of a crippling ice storm sandwiched between 2 snowstorms. We received 10.3" of snow on February 3rd followed by an ice storm that began overnight on the 5th temps fell into the 20's and would remain below freezing for 9 straight days with another snowstorm on the 13th and 14th delivering an additional 20" of snow to Chester County. On the morning of the 15th we had 26" of snow and ice on the ground and finished the month with 39.4" of snow. However, that 39.4" was well below our record snows for the month of February having been exceeded just 4 years earlier with the 62.8" of snow that fell in February 2010 and the all-time greatest monthly snow totals being the 69.8" that fell in February 1899. Of interest there was also snow continuously on the ground during the winter of 2014 for 50 straight days from January 21st through March 11th.

The big warmup is underway as temps have risen from a midnight low of 21.0 to already above freezing across all of Chester County. The mild and mostly dry weather will continue till our next rain chance on Thursday. A couple models have enough cold air getting involved by overnight Friday into Saturday AM to deliver some snow....but as we have seen this winter - I would not get the snow blowers gassed up just yet! Of note 9 years ago today (see below) in 2014 we were in the midst of a crippling ice storm sandwiched between 2 snowstorms. We received 10.3" of snow on February 3rd followed by an ice storm that began overnight on the 5th temps fell into the 20's and would remain below freezing for 9 straight days with another snowstorm on the 13th and 14th delivering an additional 20" of snow to Chester County. On the morning of the 15th we had 26" of snow and ice on the ground and finished the month with 39.4" of snow. However, that 39.4" was well below our record snows for the month of February having been exceeded just 4 years earlier with the 62.8" of snow that fell in February 2010 and the all-time greatest monthly snow totals being the 69.8" that fell in February 1899. Of interest there was also snow continuously on the ground during the winter of 2014 for 50 straight days from January 21st through March 11th.

Yep this makes a lot of sense....

So let's help the cycle deniers out and actually look at the comparison to Philadelphia long term data to a rural non UHI impacted data site like the Western Burbs of Philadelphia in Chester County PA....that trend in Philly is clearly accelerating out of control while back in the burbs....are temps rising at all???? Yet people continue to use PHL as their proof of warming....interesting... Also note how the decade of the 1930's was actually exactly the same temperature in Philadelphia as the 2000's - not much warming in those 70 years - is that why they don't look back further in history??

As always climate alarmists/cycle deniers like above only show data since 1970. However, if we review and analyze the actual readings going back to the 1890's...we clearly do not support any significant warming at all!!. As we can easily see in analyzing the actual un-adjusted long term data for the 1st ~90 years of data (1894-1982) vs. the last ~40 years of data (1983-2022) - of course no such moves to a climate in Coatesville/Chester County like Philadelphia with only a 0.3 degree increase in the last 40 years vs the previous 90 years. In fact of course 6 months are trending warmer and 6 months have trended cooler!! Why do the cycle deniers fail to look at older data to see the true cycle and only cherry pick since 1970? My local ABC news outlet in Philly does the same trick..

A chilly morning with our 3rd single digit low of this mild winter season with a low of 9.8 above zero. Today was the 3rd coldest temperature of the winter season and the coldest temperature since the 2.8 degrees above zero temperature on Christmas Eve morning. We should rebound today into the mid 20's with the warmup fully underway tomorrow. We should see upper 40's for high temps for most of the rest of the week with even low 50's possible by Wednesday though Friday. Our next rain chances look to be by Thursday. The record high for today is 63 degrees from 1991. The record low is 1 below zero set way back in 1898. The daily precipitation record is the 1.35" that fell in 1920. The daily snow record is the 9.1" that fell as part of a 2 day snowstorm in 1995 that resulted in 10.5" of snow. That one storm accounted for all but 3.0" of snow that would fall that entire winter season. That season was sandwiched between the epic ice and snow winter of 1993-94 when we received 45.7" of snow on top of a lot of ice and the snowy winter of 1995-96 when we received 81.9" of snow. At the time that was the 2nd snowiest winter in Chester County history behind only the 95.0" that fell in the winter of 1898-99 . However we would blow past that mark with the 86.7" of snow that fell in 2009-10 and surpass the 80" inch snow total again in 2013-14 with exactly 80.0" of snow recorded in that winter.

A chilly morning with our 3rd single digit low of this mild winter season with a low of 9.8 above zero. Today was the 3rd coldest temperature of the winter season and the coldest temperature since the 2.8 degrees above zero temperature on Christmas Eve morning. We should rebound today into the mid 20's with the warmup fully underway tomorrow. We should see upper 40's for high temps for most of the rest of the week with even low 50's possible by Wednesday though Friday. Our next rain chances look to be by Thursday. The record high for today is 63 degrees from 1991. The record low is 1 below zero set way back in 1898. The daily precipitation record is the 1.35" that fell in 1920. The daily snow record is the 9.1" that fell as part of a 2 day snowstorm in 1995 that resulted in 10.5" of snow. That one storm accounted for all but 3.0" of snow that would fall that entire winter season. That season was sandwiched between the epic ice and snow winter of 1993-94 when we received 45.7" of snow on top of a lot of ice and the snowy winter of 1995-96 when we received 81.9" of snow. At the time that was the 2nd snowiest winter in Chester County history behind only the 95.0" that fell in the winter of 1898-99 . However we would blow past that mark with the 86.7" of snow that fell in 2009-10 and surpass the 80" inch snow total again in 2013-14 with exactly 80.0" of snow recorded in that winter.

Thanks Cape - Agreed!! LOL!! Facts always get in the way of models and feelings!!!

Sure you don't think the earth will balance this out like it always has before since the dawning of the planet??

It is all part of the balancing that our planet does....it will ebb and wane - increase and decrease just like it always has and always will. Certainly this is nothing to worry about! However, thanks to the almost religious zeal of climate alarmists...kids today actually rank climate change as one of their biggest fears!! They have even been scared enough by these dire predictions that they are now worried about having children because the world may not be here in 50 years. What lunacy!!!

HI Wkd - no they have not we have had some very wet years but nothing out of the ordinary across my 129 years of local suburban Philly climate data. As always the perception is it rains more....just like I have folks who tell me on my FB weather page that it used to snow more when they were kids....then I share the facts that no it actually snowed more the last 2 decades then it did when they were kids....and they are stunned!

North Carolina huh? I suspect that "predicted event" will go the same way as all of the other climate predictions....nowhere fast!! LOL!!

Not at all....climate cycles take time and not one year or two....here in Chester County we have experience multiple cooler decades and now multiple warmer decades - so let's review at the end of the next decade and see how it looks.

Not really that difficult - it's the simple cyclical nature of our climate....we warm - we cool - we warm - we cool... rinse and repeat. The actual data is clear climate change is real and the cycles are constant it both warms and cools.