Juliancolton
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Everything posted by Juliancolton
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Currently some snow showers here to kick off days and days. Models have ticked a little cooler since last night, so it wouldn't take a huge bust to see bigger accums in the valleys. I'm not ready to write off 10"+ imby.
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It's looking increasingly like explosive cyclogenesis will wait until well downstream. We need the inverted trough to break right, which... good luck.
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It's helpful to note "through hour x..." when trying to pinpoint changes so everyone is on the same page.
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I still haven't decided whether I'm more worried about whiff or torch, tbh. Hopefully I get a handle on it by Wednesday.
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Man, the difference between paste and bare branches is like 75 feet. It's really stark when looking at hillsides in the area.
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1.4" total here. Not the best appetizer... an amuse-bouche if anything. But these things are always localized and usually focused south of me.
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Ground is white now at 600 ft, 32.4F. NAM thermals ftl. Rates will (re)intensify in the next couple hours as the inverted trough sharpens.
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32.7F and pouring white rain. Need a few more tenths and it's go time.
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The OC crew should get smoked tonight. Congrats to them.
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Ryan is still pretty bullish.
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Torch today. 46 already
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Yes. Snow growth looked good (and still does I guess, irrespective of what happens at the surface), and with aggregation, you can get pretty efficient instantaneous ratios. Outside of the heaviest rates though, you have to assume close to no net depth change.
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Nice rainstorm tonight on the mesoscale models. Quite the sharp warming trend.
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The last hurrah? Putting all the eggs in the Tuesday 3/14 basket
Juliancolton replied to Ginx snewx's topic in New England
All this winter's sins would be forgiven. -
Euro is wild tomorrow night with 0.8 to 1" QPF.
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Tuesday is our best shot at a big event in over two years I think.
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Crafting flow charts and solving formal proofs instead of just sticking a ruler in the snow
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Already down a couple degrees to 46. Back in met. winter, a day like today would have soared into the 50s and stayed there... smh.
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Two people asked me recently how much snow we've had this year, and then wouldn't believe that it was as much as it was. It's true that the nickles and dimes don't really register in people's minds. I know my dad thinks "a coating" is anything less than an inch or so.
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lol. It looks like I was at 31.8 for a couple refresh cycles just after midnight. #deepwinter
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I'd gladly forfeit futility for another nice snowfall or two. But if we limp over the threshold by way of sleet and slush, then that would be annoying. I got up early and scraped it with the tractor before it had a chance to melt.
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16.4" here for the season. Need to stay under 18.5", which looked a lot easier before this semi-snowy period over the past week.
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Yeah, it's nasty. 1.6" of pellets here.
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One of nature's great paradoxes!
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These hyper-amped extended range signals always seem to cut. Not getting the warm fuzzies yet about next week.
